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UK prime property prices up by an average of 0.3% in final quarter of 2015
Prime property prices in the UK increased by an average of 0.3% in the final quarter of 2015 despite a strengthening economy and low interest rates, according to the latest report. Beyond London prices of prime residential property saw muted price growth of 2.4% on average across 2015, but this was much lower than the 4.5% seen across the wider UK mainstream housing market. The situation reflects a general absence of urgency among buyers in the prime property market, says the report from international property services firm Savills. It explains that the resulting lack of upward pressure on prices was fairly uniform across the regions though markets in the London commuter zone performed marginally better, boosted in particular by the performance of prime property in high value towns and cities where annual growth averaged 5.4%. By contrast prime country property in London’s hinterland only saw annual growth of 1.9%. Across the country the performance of larger country houses has been most constrained with values of larger rectories and manor houses seeing little if any growth over 2015, reflecting a thinner stream of demand for the most expensive prime properties. The report also explains that higher value homes have been most affected by successive increases in stamp duty that culminated in the changes introduced in December 2014, which have also held back the prime property market in London. This has had a knock-on effect on demand flowing out of the capital, interrupting the ripple effect which we would otherwise expect at this point in the housing market cycle. The impact of taxation has also been noticeable in the prime housing markets in Scotland where the introduction of LBTT has meant that average price growth of just 0.4% in the past 12 months, though prime property in Edinburgh and Glasgow has performed more strongly. Across all areas smaller prime properties have performed best with those below £1 million showing annual price growth of 3.7%, much more in line with the wider housing market. Generally these markets have been the most buoyant, with greater levels of transactional activity. Looking ahead, in the short term Savills says that the demand for good quality family homes is likely to continue to underpin modest price growth across the prime regional markets, with appetite for larger higher value homes remaining more price sensitive. The firm is expecting price growth of 2.0% to 3% in 2016, which means sellers will need to remain realistic in their asking price, but which presents an opportunity for committed buyers. However, thereafter Savills expects the ripple effect to be restored as the market adjusts to higher transactional costs and buyers more actively seek to exploit the price differentials both between London and the commuter zone and the commuter zone and beyond, which have widened significantly over the past 10 years. The report also points out that Chancellor announced further changes to stamp duty in the 2015 Autumn Statement introducing a 3% surcharge on additional homes, the sales of… Continue reading
Spanish property prices up and down according to location, latest index suggests
While most experts agree that the Spanish residential property market is well into recovery, there is unlikely to be much of an increase in prices. Indeed the latest house price index from property portal Fotocasa suggests that prices are on an up and down trajectory but with no big surprise. Asking prices fell 0.8% in 2015, down from an average of €1,632 per square meter in 2014 to €1,619 per square meter as of December 2015, according to the Fotocasa index. However, Marc Stucklin, of Spanish Property Insight pointed out that last year’s house price decline was the smallest since the crisis began and this provides more evidence that the Spanish house price crash has come to an end. For example, a year ago prices were still falling by 5.7%, and by 10.% in 2012 and property prices while not rising overall, are increasing in certain locations. Beatriz Toribio, head of research as Fotocasa, an increase in mortgage lending is helping to boost the market at a time when prices are still relatively cheap compared to before the meltdown after the global economic crisis of 2007. The data shows prices rose the most last year in the Balearics with growth of 3.3%, followed by La Rioja up 2.4%, Madrid up 1.4% and Andalusia and Galicia both up 0.7%. ‘We are witnessing a two speed market. Whilst there are parts of Catalonia, Madrid, and the Balearics, where prices have bottomed out, in places like Castile-La Mancha and Extremadura, there is still plenty of room to fall,’ explained Toribio. There are also variations within cities. ‘In Madrid and Barcelona prices are consolidating their recovery, but on the outskirts of those cities the evolution is more unequal,’ added Toribio. Since the peak of the market in 2007 prices have fallen 45.2% overall. The biggest decline has been in La Rioja where prices are down 55.1% from peak, Castile-La Mancha down 52.6%, Navarre down 52.5%, Aragon down 52%, Murcia down 49.9%, and Valencia down 48.3%. Prices have fallen the least in Galicia with a decline of 31.5%, down 33.1% in the Balearics, down 36.3% in Castile and Leon and down 37.3% in the Basque Country, according to the Fotocasa data. ‘Prices look to be more or less stable, but still slightly negative at the end of 2015, with little sign of upward pressure on the horizon,’ said Stucklin, who added that big regional variations exist. Continue reading
Call for UK wide housing review to access impact of buy let tax change
A long term, strategic comprehensive review of housing policy and housing need in the UK is needed as recent changes are set to distort the property market, it is claimed. In particular, the Government ought to recognise the contribution of private landlords as tax changes could seriously affect the buy to let market to the detriment of those who cannot or choose not to buy a home. In a response to the Government’s new stamp duty regime for second homes, Paragon Mortgages says that there should be a comprehensive review looking at the housing dynamics over the last 30 years. ‘Whilst we agree that support for home buyers is an important strand of housing policy, if the interests of home buyers are prioritised above the interests of those in the Social Rented Sector (SRS) and the Private Rented Sector (PRS), then serious distortions may arise as a result to the detriment of those who cannot afford to buy or choose not to buy,’ the document says. ‘Policy changes that may result in reduced supply of properties to the PRS, risk driving up rents and constraining choice to the disbenefit of those who rely on the PRS for a home without delivering corresponding benefits in owner occupation,’ it explains. The document also says that there are more significant structural issues at play in the heart of the housing market so the review is needed to look at housing provision across all tenures. Paragon has been operating in the buy to let market since the inception of this specialist finance for landlords in 1995 and says that it has extensive experience of the market, a deep understanding of how landlords operate and how important buy to let finance is to the supply of property to the PRS. ‘What the Government appears to be overlooking with their focus on driving up home ownership, is that regardless of aspiration, home ownership is not a suitable solution for everyone. Some demographics need and want to live in the PRS because it best suits a variety of their individual requirements including lifestyle choice and financial capability,’ said John Heron, director of mortgages at Paragon. ‘The proposed 3% increase in Stamp Duty will not bring the market to a grinding halt and is unlikely to deter most landlords from their current, immediate investment plans but it will undoubtedly impact on some landlords’ future plans for growing their portfolios,’ he explained. ‘Our fundamental issue with these changes and also the proposed changes to tax relief of mortgage finance is that private landlords provide a valuable contribution to the wider housing market mix and this is not being recognised,’ he added. ‘With a declining social housing sector and with more people choosing not to buy their own home, it is important that the service the PRS provides is not overlooked,’ he concluded. Continue reading
