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US existing home sales bounce back after unexpected decline
Sales of existing homes in the United States bounced back in March with big gains in the Northeast and Midwest, according to the latest index data to be published. Total existing sales, which are completed transactions that include single family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, increased by 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.07 million in February. The data from the National Association of Realtors also shows that overall sales rose in all four major regions last month and were up 1.5% compared with March 2015. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said the rebound was welcome after an uncharacteristically large decline in February. ‘Closings came back in force last month as a greater number of buyers, mostly in the Northeast and Midwest, overcame depressed inventory levels and steady price growth to close on a home,’ he explained. ‘Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures,’ he added. The index also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in March was $222,700, up 5.7% from March 2015 when it was $210,700. March's price increase marks the 49th consecutive month of year on year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of March increased 5.9% to 1.98 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 1.5% lower than a year ago when it was 2.01 million. Unsold inventory is at a 4.5 month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.4 months in February. ‘The choppiness in sales activity so far this year is directly related to the unevenness in the rate of new listings coming onto the market to replace what is, for the most part, being sold rather quickly,’ said Yun. ‘Additionally, a segment of would be buyers at the upper end of the market appear to have been spooked by January's stock market correction,’ he explained. Matching the lowest share since August 2015, properties typically stayed on the market for 47 days in March, a decrease from 59 days in February and below the 52 days in March 2015. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 120 days in March, while foreclosures sold in 50 days and non-distressed homes took 46 days. Some 42% of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month, the highest since July 2015 when it was 43%. The data also shows that the share of first time buyers was 30% in March, unchanged both from February and a year ago. First time buyers in all of 2015 also represented an average of 30%. ‘With rents steadily rising and average fixed rates well below 4%, qualified first time buyers should be more active participants than what they are right now. Unfortunately,… Continue reading
Mortgage lending in UK boosted by buy to let frenzy due to stamp duty change
Gross mortgage lending reached £25.7 billion in the UK in March, a rise of 43% compared with the previous month and up 59% year on year. The surge in lending was driven by a dash by buyers to beat the 3% property stamp duty surcharge on additional homes that was introduced on the 01 April, according to the latest report from the Council of Mortgage Lenders. The data also shows that lending was the highest March figure since 2007 when gross lending reached £30.9 billion. Gross mortgage lending for the first quarter of this year was therefore an estimated £62.1 billion. This is the same level as in the previous quarter, but 39% higher than the first three months of 2015. ‘Against a backdrop of a recovering market, the substantial jump in lending in March was significantly influenced by a late surge of activity to beat the government’s stamp duty change on second properties, which came into effect at the start of April,’ said CML economist Mohammad Jamei. ‘The distortion caused by this stamp duty change appears to be larger than any previous stamp duty change we’ve seen. As a result, we expect there will be about 10,000 fewer mortgaged transactions each month in the second quarter of 2016 than would otherwise have been the case, offsetting the increase in activity seen in March,’ he added. According to Peter Williams, executive director of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA), although the initial buy to let lending rush has passed, repercussions will continue to ricochet through the market. ‘Other efforts to manage demand among landlords, like reductions to mortgage tax relief, will impact on those looking to expand their portfolios. At IMLA we expect the tax increases to spur more remortgaging as landlords look at other ways to keep costs down,’ he said. ‘However, importantly, the changes will mean the sector then shrinks, the private rental sector will continue to grow perhaps more slowly to meet the demand of a rising population, continued affordability problems and the dearth of new housing supply,’ he pointed out. ‘While the failure to constrain price rises and to build more homes has been the biggest block to increased homeownership, other factors have also taken their toll. Areas beyond the mainstream market have been less well served in the more tightly regulated environment that has emerged post-financial crisis, and more consumers are falling into this category,’ he explained. ‘For example, we have seen a substantial lift in self-employment in the last five years as the labour market has evolved, but those working for themselves have had fewer tailored financial support products to choose from,’ he added. ‘However, lenders are expecting mortgage availability to improve for these types of clients in 2016. First time buyers in particular are identified as the segment of the market with the biggest growth potential. In the near future, lending levels may look lower after the buy to let rush, but over the long… Continue reading
Official figures confirm buying frenzy in UK in run up to stamp duty change
Official figures from HMRC confirm that there was a large increase in property sales in the UK in March 2016 which was associated with stamp duty change. House sales were 77% higher than March 2015 and 75% up month on month and the HMRC report states this must be directly linked to a rush to buy ahead of the new 3% stamp duty charge for additional homes. There has been plenty of anecdotal evidence that buy to let investors were rushing to beat the 01 April deadline and this is now confirmed. However it is likely that sales in April will fall considerably as a result of the frenzy. Even the seasonally adjusted estimate shows that the number of residential property transactions increased by 41.5% between February 2016 and March 2016 and increased 69.7% compared to March 2015. ‘The large increase in transactions for March 2016 is likely to be associated with the introduction of the higher rates on additional properties in April 2016,’ the HMRC report says. ‘Additional non-tax factors may have played a role as well, for example the Bank of England's plans to curb buy to let mortgages resulting in a rush to purchase,’ it adds. The HMRC figures also shows that for March 2016 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was about 74.8% higher compared with February 2016. Lucian Cook, Savills head of residential research, pointed out that even on a seasonally adjusted basis volumes were up 40% on February 2016 against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, the forthcoming referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union referendum and no loosening of mortgage lending criteria. He also pointed out that the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows mortgage lending was 43% higher in March compared to February, and 59% higher than March 2015. ‘This suggests that while borrowing to support this uplift in sales volumes has been significant, there has also been a notable weighting towards cash buyers. All these figures confirm a frenzy of buying activity before the 01 April introduction of the 3% stamp duty surcharge for additional homes purchases,’ Cook explained. ‘It underscores the significant distorting effect that stamp duty changes can have on the housing market. This is clearly a one off event and such volumes are unsustainable against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and the prospect of an increased regulatory environment for buy to let borrowing,’ he added. ‘We’d expect a significant fall in transaction levels in the second quarter of the year to offset the March activity and the stamp duty surcharge to act as a longer term drag on housing transactions,’ he concluded. Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move, said that March was the busiest month the business has ever seen with a record number of transactions. The busiest ever day for completions was 31 March, reaching a total of 1,120 in the single day. ‘The new stamp… Continue reading
