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US property market set to continue steadily upwards in 2016
Steady job growth, affordable home prices, attractive mortgage interest rates and pent-up demand will help the US housing market continue on a gradual upward trajectory in the year ahead, it is claimed. However, supply side headwinds led by a shortage of construction lots and labour, along with tight access to acquisition, construction and development loans, continue to hamper a more robust recovery, according to economists who participated the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Spring Construction Forecast event. ‘Builders remain cautiously optimistic about market conditions. This should be the first year since the recession in which the growth rate for single family production exceeds that of multifamily. And we see single-family growth accelerating in 2017 as the supply chain mends and we can expand production,’ said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. The event heard that steady job growth has bolstered consumer confidence and rekindled housing demand. Nationally, payroll employment has surpassed its pre-recession peak by a modest margin; only a small number of states still lag behind those levels. Looking ahead, single family production is expected to post a 14% gain in 2016 to 812,000 units and rise an additional 19% to 964,000 units in 2017. Using the 2000/2003 period as a healthy benchmark, when single family starts averaged 1.3 million units on an annual basis, single family production currently stands at 58% of normal activity. The NAHB projects that single family production will rise to 64% of normal by the fourth quarter of this year and climb to 77% of normal by the end of 2017. On the multifamily side, production ran at 395,000 units last year, above the 331,000 rate that is considered a normal level of production. Multifamily starts are expected to decline 4% to 379,000 units this year, and rise 6% to 402,000 units in 2017. Residential remodelling activity is expected to increase 3.3% in 2016 over last year, and rise an additional 1.3% in 2017. Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, cited several factors that should make this year’s home sales the best in a decade including fewer household formations than normal and data showing that more owners are current on their mortgages, with fewer defaults and less foreclosures along with solid job gains include rising salaries and wages. He pointed out that house prices are rising about 6% annually and appear to be in line with incomes and rents while demographic tailwinds are helping to propel the housing market forward. Freddie Mac is projecting 5.9 million total home sales this year, the highest level since 2006, and 6.2 million in 2017 and regionally, Kiefer said that house price growth is the strongest in the South and West, with Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Florida all posting double digit state-wide house price appreciation between December 2014 and December 2015. NAHB senior economist Robert Denk said that housing market conditions are improving across the nation, but the pace of the recovery continues to vary by state and region. ‘A common… Continue reading
New £2.7 million initiative launched in UK to help tackle housing shortage
Over 45,000 new home building workers will be trained by 2019 to help tackle the UK’s housing shortage through a £2.7 million initiative announced by the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) and Home Builders Federation (HBF). The first of its kind, the Home Building Skills Partnership, working with research on their needs from some 40 UK home builders, will bring together firms of all sizes to ensure that the industry has the skills it needs to build more homes. This will include initiatives to promote collaboration on skills across the supply chain, so that the industry can better plan for its future needs and the partnership will support over 3,500 construction businesses and, by 2019, train 45,000 new entrants and 1,000 experienced workers with the new homebuilding training qualifications. It comes at a time when the house building industry has delivered unprecedented increases in house building over the past two years. The latest figures show that 181,000 new homes were provided last year, up 25% year on year, with the largest companies increasing their output by 50% since their troughs. With the industry looking to meet Government ambitions to increase output still further, whilst maintaining high levels of build quality and customer service, it is imperative industry capacity is increased. The aim is that the new partnership will use industry insight to understand skills needs and develop new training and qualifications ideally suited to the modern home building sector and create long term skills solutions to meet the government’s target of one million new homes by 2020. It will be overseen by a Board that will be chaired by Redrow chief executive officer John Tutte and include a range of senior industry representatives and CITB. ‘The number of new homes is up 25% in the last year because the country is building again and delivering the homes the nation wants. That’s why the Home Building Skills Partnership is an important initiative and will help deliver the training of skilled workers we need to get the job done and to improve quality across the industry,’ said Housing and Planning Minister Brandon Lewis. ‘Construction offers an exciting and rewarding career and we need to build a new generation of home grown talented, ambitious and highly skilled construction workers,’ he added. Initiatives throughout the four year programme will include research led by the HBF and employers, to get a better understanding of the barriers faced by the home building sector and the design and delivery of a new Home Building Training and Developmental Needs Analysis tool to ensure the right training is delivered to ensure the sector’s skills needs are met, now and in the future. There will also be the establishment of a framework that will set common standards for skills and training in the home building sector. This will deliver a more relevant and valued curriculum and ensuring the safety and satisfaction of homebuilders and their customers. ‘The industry… Continue reading
Housing affordability improves in Australia and new starts at record high
Housing affordability across Australia experienced improvement during the first three months of 2016, according to the latest affordability report. Affordability improved by 2.7% quarter on quarter and was 0.4% more favourable than the same period a year earlier, the data from the report by the Housing Industry Association shows. Aggregate capital city housing affordability was 4.1% more favourable during the quarter, while regional markets experienced 0.1% improvement. ‘The national median dwelling price fell during the March 2016 quarter and this was the main factor behind the improvement in affordability during the first quarter of the year,’ said HIA senior economist, Shane Garrett. ‘Had it not been for the shock increase in variable mortgage interest rates late last year, the improvement in affordability would have been even better. Earnings growth has been held back by slack in the economy, and this situation has also worked against improving affordability,’ he explained. ‘At the end of the day, the most durable way of improving affordability lies in facilitating the supply of affordable new housing more effectively. Planning delays, land supply shortages and the heavy tax burden are all making the achievement of housing affordability much more difficult,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures show that the largest improvements in affordability were in Sydney with a rise of 8.9%, Perth up 4.9% and Darwin up 4.4%. Affordability also saw improvement in Hobart with a rise of 2.9% and Melbourne where it was up 2%. However, affordability worsened in Brisbane with a fall of 1.2%, was down 0.2% in Adelaide and down 0.3% in Canberra. Meanwhile, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that the number of dwellings approved rose 0.6% in March 2016, in trend terms, and has now risen for four months in a row. Approvals increased in the Australian Capital Territory by 18.9%, in Western Australia by 1.1%, in Queensland by 0.8% and in Victoria by 0.2% in trend terms. Dwelling approvals decreased in the Northern Territory by 18.1%, in Tasmania by 1.5%, in New South Wales by 0.3% and in South Australia by 0.1% in trend terms. In trend terms, approvals for private sector houses rose 0.3% in March. Private sector house approvals rose in Victoria by 1.7% but fell in South Australia by 0.8%, in Western Australia by 0.7% and in Queensland by 0.2% Private sector house approvals were flat in New South Wales. In seasonally adjusted terms, dwelling approvals increased 3.7% with private sector house approvals up 2.6% while private sector dwellings, excluding houses, rose 6.7%. The value of total building approved fell 0.9 per cent in March, in trend terms, and has fallen for eight months. The value of residential building rose 0.4% while non-residential building fell 3.9%. Final ABS results for 2015 confirm that last year was the strongest ever for new home building activity with over 220,000 new homes beginning construction, an 11% rise on 2014 with which the previous record for… Continue reading
