Tag Archives: european
Brexit vote creating lethargy in prime central London property market
There are signs of lethargy in the prime property market in central London ahead of the vote on the future of the UK in the European Union, according to a new research report. But beyond the distraction of the EU referendum there are signs that demand is strengthening, according to the research from international real estate firm Knight Frank. Overall annual growth in the prime central London property market slowed to 0.1% in May, the lowest since October 2009 and the Brexit effect means demand is subdued even where asking prices have fallen 10% or more. On top of this the number of active buyers to available properties has halved over the last year and Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, described it as a price sensitive market. ‘Demand remains relatively subdued but in a change from recent months, the primary cause in May was the Brexit vote rather than new rates of stamp duty. Indeed, there are overlapping layers of uncertainty affecting supply and demand that are difficult to differentiate but which produce a cumulative impact,’ Bill explained. ‘There has been a discernible Brexit effect on the UK economy as decisions are delayed and the London property market is no exception. Buyers and sellers are postponing decisions because of the prospect of entering unchartered economic and political territory,’ he said. ‘The market has become price-sensitive due to higher levels of stamp duty, but an indication of the Brexit effect is that demand in May has remained subdued even for properties where asking prices have fallen by 10% or more,’ he pointed out. He also pointed out that demand was already more restrained as a result of the impact of two stamp duty increases in the space of 18 months and the ratio of active buyers per available property in prime central London has fallen to 4.8 from 10 over the last year. However, despite the looming referendum, there are signs underlying demand is strengthening, according to Bill as buyers drop asking prices to reflect higher transaction costs. The number of transactions between January and the middle of May was flat this year compared to 2015. Meanwhile, viewings increased 31% between January and April versus last year, suggesting a degree of pent-up demand. Overall, prices have grown 2.4% over the last two years and it has been three and a half years since annual growth was last above 10% in October 2012. A breakdown of the figures show that in the 12 months to May 2016 prices have increased 7.4% in Islington, by 6.3% in the City, by 1.9% in Mayfair, by 1,7% in Kensington, by 1.3% in Tower Bridge and by 0.3% in Riverside. Prices remained unchanged in St John’s Wood and Marylebone but fell by 7.5% in Knightsbridge, by 4.8% in Hyde Park, by 4.6% in South Kensington, by 3.5% in Chelsea, by 1.7% in Kensington, by 1.5% in Notting Hill, and by 0.2% in Belgravia. The report also points out… Continue reading
Global office leasing environment set to be competitive in 2016
The leasing environment in key global office markets is highly competitive with rents on prime spaces up by 3.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2016. This is despite heightened financial market volatility and global economic across the 95 major markets covered by the JLL Global Office Index which also shows that quarter on quarter rents increased by 0.6% compared to 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015. With the world’s major real estate markets appearing to be back on track following a cautious start to the year, business sentiment is improving and corporate activity is expected to ramp up over the course of 2016, according to the report. It suggests that leasing volumes are projected to broadly match those of 2015 and adds that there is some upside potential of up to 5% while strengthening global occupier demand through 2016 and tight supply will drive continued rental increases. Overall JLL forecasts prime rental growth of around 3% to 4% for the whole of 2016. A breakdown of the figures show that the Americas Index saw quarterly rental growth slow to 0.3% in the first quarter, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter. The report says that declines in Latin America and Canada weighed on relatively stronger gains in the United States. In Asia Pacific, quarterly rental growth decelerated to 0.6% from 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015 as overall growth was encumbered by lacklustre economic conditions in several tier one markets. Europe saw rental growth moderate to 0.6% quarter on quarter from 1.0% the final quarter of 2015 although general sentiment continued to be positive and no markets registered quarterly rental falls. The Middle East and North Africa Index rose by 2.7% during the first three months of 2016 but this was compared with the 7.4% in the previous quarter and rental growth was confined to Dubai while all other markets were stable over the quarter. While 2016 is expected to represent the peak of the global office development cycle, completion levels are still well below the previous peaks seen in 2001 and 2008, and the global vacancy rate is projected to remain generally stable over the rest of the year, the report explained. Office leasing volumes in Asia Pacific were up 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2016 and the region is expected to outperform with growth of 10% to 15% for the full year, supported by robust outsourcing markets and the sustained strength of domestic occupiers in China. Sydney is forecast to be the region’s top rental performer in 2016, while Singapore is likely to see further declines and economic uncertainty and supply pressures are anticipated to result in more moderate overall regional rental increases in 2016. In Europe, occupier leasing activity is anticipated to continue to hold up in 2016. The report says that most markets have joined the rental growth cycle, and a longer period of steadier rental growth… Continue reading
Second home owners returning to Portugal, particularly the Algarve
The availability of cheap finance, investment in infrastructure, appealing tax initiatives and a return to sensible pricing has prompted renewed activity in the Algarve’s property market. Overall, the Portuguese property market’s decline since the economic downturn of 2008 is well documented. Prices in some locations popular with overseas buyers have fallen by as much as 50% in peak to trough terms. But sales volumes and prices have responded, albeit in two phases, according to the latest analysis from international real estate firm Knight Frank. In 2013 the firm saw vendors start to adjust their prices, which led to an upturn in transactions. By 2015 the Algarve recorded its first annual increase in prime prices since 2008 and Knight Frank’s west Algarve office reported a 32% increase in sales in 2015 compared to 2014. The report says that what set the Algarve apart during the downturn was the continual investment in infrastructure. The upgrade of the coastal A22 motorway, for example, has opened up the western Algarve while the improvement to the E1 from Lisbon and Porto and the €32 million expansion of Faro Airport have helped boost economic confidence. Further development is planned at Vilamoura and Quinta do Lago. The report points out that British, Irish and German buyers are still evident in the Algarve but French, Scandinavian and non- Europeans, including South Africans and Chinese, are also increasing in number. A surge in French interest has been seen in the last two to three years with many citing Portugal’s Non-Habitual Tax Residency regime (NHR) as a key incentive. Introduced in 2009, the NHR exempts non-residents spending 183 days a year in Portugal, or those with a primary residence in the country, from income tax on non-Portuguese incomes, including pensions, salaries and capital gains for a period of 10 years. Another initiative, Portugal’s Golden Visa, by far the most successful of the European schemes in existence, has seen inward investment focus on the Lisbon area rather than on the Algarve. To date Chinese buyers account for 79% of the 2,853 visas granted since 2012. The report also points out that there is now a greater focus on the Algarve’s investment potential compared with before 2008. The Algarve’s 37 championship golf courses are responsible for over 50,000 rounds of golf a year and their season extends beyond that of the traditional summer rental period, running from February to May and again from September to November. And it adds that new development is evident once more particularly at the eastern end of the Algarve, but prime projects need to be anchored by a 5-star hotel brand or a championship golf course to pull buyers away from the more established locations such as the Golden Triangle area which stretches from Quinta do Lago to Vilamoura and Vale do Lobo. Continue reading
