Tag Archives: european
EU future uncertainty hitting prime central London sales and lettings
Sales and lettings in the prime central London property market have been hit by uncertainty over the UK’s position in the European Union ahead of the referendum vote on 23 June. After a period of increased activity, as buyers rushed to beat the April stamp duty deadline, the prime central London area is experiencing a subdued time, according to a new report from estate agency WA Ellis. ‘April saw the government collect a record of nearly £1.2 billion in stamp duty, as landlords rushed to beat higher stamp duty rates on second properties. These national figures are reflected by transaction levels within prime central London which have halved since March,’ said Richard Barber, director at WA Ellis. He believes that various apocalyptic visions of what may or may not happen if the UK voted to leave the EU have continued to confound the electorate over the last two months. ‘As a result, it would appear that buying a new property has been put on hold by the majority of potential purchasers until the future of the UK is determined,’ he added. Landlords in prime central London are being hit hard by the uncertainty, according to Lucy Morton, head of agency at WA Ellis and JLL, with rents being adversely affected. ‘There are reports of recruitment freezes across the city and firms delaying relocating staff to London to see what awaits the UK post referendum. This, of course, has had an impact on prices, and the unprecedented surplus of stock has put further downward pressure on the rental market,’ she explained. ‘With this in mind, we have been advising landlords to reduce rents, and this has yielded positive results with enquiry levels up, and a substantial increase in lettings being agreed. In this sort of market, minimising vacant periods is more important than waiting for a slightly premium rental offer,’ she pointed out. ‘For example, over the course of a year, a 5% higher rental offer is negated if it means that a property stays vacant for an extra two and half weeks. As always our message is clear: accurate pricing and pristine presentation should be a landlord’s main consideration in volatile market conditions,’ she added. Continue reading
Total investment volume in European commercial real estate down in Q1
Total investment volume into European commercial real estate in the first quarter of 2016 reached €36.8 billion, some 30% lower than the same period last year, the latest research shows. However, several European countries analysed in the report from international real estate firm Savills are seeing increasing investment activity this year. Italy with growth of 54%, Sweden up 33%, Poland up 15%, the Benelux countries up 12% and Finland up 479%, have all performed well. The report says that the data shows that investor appetite is healthy for quality assets in markets with strong fundamentals. In terms of sectors, industrial has gained ground, increasing by around 19% year on year. This was driven mainly by transactions in the logistics and distribution sector in the UK, Germany, Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands, which accounted for more than 80% of the total activity. Over half of the markets across the continent did record a decrease in transaction volumes in the first three months of the year. Lower volumes were observed in the markets which are ahead in the investment cycle such as the UK with a decline of 48%, France down 47% and Germany down 12%. It is believed that the stagnating European economy, the unpredictable outcome of geopolitical tensions in Europe, and the volatility of the stock markets could all be factors influencing investor sentiment and delaying decision making. Savills however insists that these lower volumes are not a reflection of investor demand for real estate in Europe, but of the lack of stock currently available in the marketplace. ‘Demand for commercial real estate in Europe remains strong amongst domestic and cross border investors and deals are still closing at record prices. The predominant threat to an increasing turnover is the lack of good quality assets on offer,’ said Eri Mitsosterigiou, director of European research at Savills On the other hand, Denmark with a fall of 62%), Norway down 47%, Spain down 24% and Ireland down 33%, all experienced dynamic investment activity in 2015, therefore it is unlikely for them to rival these strong performances in 2016. According to Marcus Lemli, head of European investment at Savills, the markets that are likely to continue to be high on investors’ agendas this year are the core markets of Germany and France, which, despite competitive pricing and unbalanced levels of supply and demand, remain attractive due to their solid fundamentals and high liquidity. ‘Strong occupier markets and low development activity is also expected to boost rental growth in these markets over 2016,’ he added. Savills predicts that in 2016 prime CBD rents will grow by 3% to 4% pa in London, by 3.5% in Paris and by 2% in the big four German big cities. From a pricing perspective there is also still some space for further gains in the shopping centre and logistics sectors in Paris, if the yield… Continue reading
UK house prices up in May but annual growth is slowing
House prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in May as a steady upward trend in values continued but there are signs that growth is slowing. Quarter on quarter prices were up 1.4%, slightly below April’s 1.5% but this was the lowest since November 2015 when it was also 1.4%, according to the latest index from lender the Halifax. Also, the May rise of 0.6% largely offset Aprils fall of 0.8% and Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist pointed out that the quarterly figure is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend in the housing market. Prices in the three months to May 2016 were 9.2% higher than the same three months in 2015 so the annual movement was the lowest it has been since last autumn. The index shows the average price now reaching £213,472. According to separate research from the Halifax property prices per square metre have risen by 432% in Greater London against a national average increase of 251% over the past two decades. Although London dominates the country's list of most expensive property locations on a per square metre basis several areas outside southern England fetch a higher property price per square metre than the national average of £2,216. These are Solihull, Leamington Spa, Altrincham Edinburgh and Harrogate. ‘Low interest rates, increasing employment and rising real earnings, continue to support housing demand. The strength of demand, combined with very low supply, is causing house prices to rise at a brisk pace in quarterly and annual terms,’ Ellis explained. ‘Increasing affordability issues, caused by a sustained period of higher than earnings house price growth, should curb housing demand and result in some slowdown in house price growth as the year progresses,’ he added. The figures are published at a time when demand is still outpacing supply, according to Ian Thomas, director of online property investment company LendInvest. ‘The resilience of house price growth is remarkable. Even now that the stamp duty stampede of the first quarter is behind us, and with the uncertainty of the European Union referendum result dampening activity, house prices are still holding up,’ he said. ‘There simply aren't enough houses being built. The latest disappointing house building data make this abundantly clear. The Government’s dream of one million new homes by 2020 simply isn’t realistic without a fundamental change of approach,’ he pointed out. ‘As a result, house prices will continue to rise. Investors will continue to enjoy great returns from putting their money into property, while aspiring home buyers face a tricky time getting the sums to add up in order to move up the housing ladder,’ he added. However, Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, believes the slowdown in growth is quite dramatic. ‘The house price volatility around April’s stamp duty hike has made 2016 a difficult year to predict. But the yoyo effect looks like it’ll settle, at least until all the uncertainty over the EU referendum ends,’ he said. ‘Activity in… Continue reading
