Tag Archives: european
Brexit set to have positive and negative effects for UK commercial property markets
Confidence in the UK’s commercial real estate markets will unquestionably fall due to the Brexit uncertainty with a ripple effect set to spread beyond London, according to a new analysis. It is likely that decisions will be pushed back in the period of heightened economic and political uncertainty that no one can define or quantify and it will most likely take several years for people to fully understand the implications of the decision to leave the European Union, says the report from Fidelity International. But there are likely to be positive as well as negative effects due to the referendum decision. ‘The question is whether resultant pricing volatility is a fair reflection of inherent risks or a potential mispricing opportunity,’ said Adrian Benedict, the firm’s real estate director. He pointed out that before the referendum, transaction volumes were already down 50% in the year to date compared with the same period in 2015. ‘We anticipate volumes to remain modest for the rest of 2016 as investors assess the implications,’ he added. ‘As we saw in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, we can expect real estate investors to seek refuge in the relative safe harbour markets like London West End or long leased assets. However, unlike then, values are already 10% to 20% above long term levels,’ Benedict explained. He believes that many investors will be turning their attention to the occupier market, in particular evaluating the impact on financial and business services companies; anyone with those type of tenants are going to be more circumspect but the impact won't just be confined to London. ‘We can expect to see a ripple effect across the country. Bournemouth for example has a high proportion of people employed by financial service companies and it would be naïve of us to think the impact will be contained to the capital,’ Benedict said. ‘So long as occupiers remain cash generative, we’re unlikely to face a material pricing correction arising from weak fundamentals. Supply of new space remains very constrained and vacancy rates in the key cities across the UK have largely recovered,’ he added. He also pointed out that having short leased assets doesn’t necessarily mean occupiers will move out. ‘Fidelity’s experience suggests less than 25% of occupiers chose to exercise their option to terminate leases or move at expiry. Rather than selling or buying real estate ‘markets’ a greater emphasis will need to be placed on underwriting the occupiers and the certainty of their cash flows,’ he said. ‘As with most clouds, there is a silver lining. Over the last 12 months international buyers accounted for 40 percent of commercial property deals in the UK, a near doubling within 10 years. The relative attractiveness of the UK market is explained by a strong economy but also a relatively weak currency. In US$ terms, the UK real estate market is now back to pre-2004 pricing levels. The question is whether international investors will view this as… Continue reading
Analysis suggests Brexit will have a varied impact on London property markets
The decision by the UK to leave the European Union is set to have a hugely varied impact across London's property markets with some likely to be worse off than others. According to a new analysis from independent property buying agency Black Bric, the sub-£2 million price bracket will continue to attract investors due to its favourable yields, good liquidity, and domestic demand. But the firm’s managing director Camilla Dell predicts that the same can't be said for the prime property market in London and the new build outer prime markets. ‘We expect the section of the market dominated by domestic buyers and those working in the financial services sector, predominantly £2million to £5 million but also up to the £12million to £15 million range, to potentially face some pressure linked to Brexit concerns,’ said Dell. ‘We do not expect the wholesale flight of financial services firms away from London, but it is likely that they will lose their passporting rights, or their ability to sell financial services across the EU if the UK does leave, triggering the departure of some financial services capacity to Dublin or the continent,’ she explained. ‘However, even relatively low numbers of bankers leaving areas such as South Kensington or Notting Hill where Europeans, in particular, tend to be concentrated could have a significant effect on local markets over the next couple of years,’ she added. Black Brick also expects the new-build outer prime market to suffer most from continuing uncertainty, having already experienced a lull period before the referendum vote. ‘The stock market has already heavily bid down builders linked to this part of the market, which is suffering from significant oversupply and the disappearance of the foreign investors who had supported it in recent years,’ said Dell. ‘Areas such as Nine Elms in Vauxhall and Earls Court in West London are particularly vulnerable due to oversupply of expensive properties aimed at the overseas investor. However, there are a handful of stand out developments, such as Television Centre, that we believe are likely to continue to prove popular, and there will certainly be bargains to be had, particularly on the secondary market,’ she pointed out. On the other hand, Black Brick expects the super prime market to be the least negatively affected, with the collapse of the sterling meaning that dollar buyers are actually factoring in a 12.5% increase in their purchasing power since before the referendum. ‘For the global elite buying properties at £15 million to £20 million or above, purchases tend to be about lifestyle choices, rather than business decisions, or are to diversify extremely large portfolios. Indeed, we are still seeing transactions continue. Brexit did not feature in conversations with clients in this part of the market before the referendum, and it is unlikely to be much of a factor now it is underway,’ Dell added. Meanwhile, London’s new Deputy Mayor for Housing James Murray has said there will be meeting with major developers and the… Continue reading
Mortgage approvals increased in UK in May but still below six month average
The number of mortgages approved for buyers in the UK increased in May compared to the previous month but are still below the high level recorded in March due to stamp duty changes. The data from the Bank of England’s Money and Credit Report shows that there were 70,553 approvals for house purchases in March, 66,205 in April and 67,042 in May. This compares to an average of 70,598 over the previous six months. The data also shows that the number of approvals for remortgaging was 42,919, compared to the average of 41,019 over the previous six months. According to Peter Williams, executive director of the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA), stamp duty changes for buy to let properties and second homes meant there was an air of inevitability about the April dip in mortgage approvals, which has now been followed up by a modest recovery in the lead-up to the UK’s referendum on its European Union membership. ‘House purchase activity hasn’t quite returned to the heightened levels of early 2016, but the homebuyer market has visibly strengthened over the last 18 months. The data also shows record remortgage activity with almost 43,000 approvals in May, the highest of the post-Mortgage Market Review (MMR) era,’ he said. ‘A resurgence in remortgaging has been underway for the last six months, with more than 40,000 loans approved every month since December. It reflects growing opportunity for consumers to use the equity in their homes to switch to a new deal, and growing awareness of the savings on offer while rates are low and lender competition is high,’ he pointed out. Williams also explained that a year ago, the UK mortgage market was about to experience a post-election bounce and it seems unlikely that last week’s EU referendum result will produce a similar effect this time round. ‘However, despite inevitable uncertainty as some buyers and sellers wait to see how the dust settles, lenders will be maintaining business as usual. Mortgage rates continue to look attractive and the housing supply shortage means homes appearing on the market are still likely to be subject to considerable demand,’ he added. David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, explained that investors’ desire to complete before the 01 April deadline meant that business was brought forward into February and March, which then resulted in dampened approval figures for April. ‘However, following this, it is now clear that the number of purchase approvals did increase between April and May, as property investors came to terms with the new normal this tax year,’ he said. ‘May feels like an age ago. Now, there is little doubt that the rest of the year will be dominated by the events of the last seven days. Following the Brexit vote, anecdotal evidence suggests that many are holding off on transactions until a more detailed picture of the economic and political fallout emerges. This could make for a quieter third quarter,’… Continue reading
