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Downward house growth trend in UK continues, says latest index report

UK house prices increased by 0.3% in May and the annual price growth figures moderated to 4.6% from 5.2% in April, according to the latest index figures. The data from the Nationwide Building Society confirms a gradual downward trend that takes the average price in the country to £195,166. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, pointed out that this general trend has been in evidence since the summer of 2014 but was briefly interrupted in April when price growth edged up to 5.2% from 5.1% in March. However, annual house price growth is now running at less than half the pace prevailing in the middle of 2014. ‘Over the longer term we would expect house price growth to converge with earnings growth, which has typically been around 4% per annum. However, much will depend on supply side developments and in recent years the rate of building activity has remained well below that required to keep up with population growth,’ Gardner explained. The index report shows that cash transactions remain relatively high in the UK residential market. ‘We estimate that the share of cash purchases in the housing market reached an all-time high of 38% in the first quarter of 2015,’ said Gardner. ‘Continued healthy demand from cash buyers has helped to support transaction levels in recent quarters, since mortgage lending has remained relatively subdued. For example, in the first quarter of 2015 overall housing transactions were down by around 5% compared with the first quarter of 2014, while mortgage completions were around 11% lower,’ he pointed out. ‘Although the 38% share was a record, it was only modestly above the average of 36% prevailing in 2014. The significant rise in the share of cash transactions occurred in the wake of the financial crisis, where a tightening in credit conditions and a deterioration in the labour market limited the number of people able to buy with a mortgage,’ he added. Gardner also said that the current low interest rate environment is likely to have supported the flow of cash into other asset classes in recent years, including UK residential property. The Nationwide data suggests that the share of cash purchases in London is not out of line with the rest of the UK, which can be regarded as a surprise, given the greater involvement of investors, both domestic and overseas, in the London property market. ‘A limiting factor may be that house prices in the capital are over twice as high as the rest of the UK at £408,780 versus £188,566 in the first quarter of 2015,’ added Gardner. Continue reading

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UK property prices up over 12% year on year, latest data shows

UK house prices increased by 12.1% in the year to September but there is considerable variation with London driving national prices up, the latest data shows. Overall, house price annual inflation was 12.5% in England, 5.8% in Wales, 7.6% in Scotland and 10.9% in Northern Ireland, according to the figures from the Office of National Statistics. Annual house price increases in England were driven by an annual increase in London of 18.8% and to a lesser extent increases in the East at 13.4% and the South East at 11.6%. Excluding London and the South East, UK house prices increased by 9.1% in the 12 months to September 2014. The data also shows that on a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 0.5% between August and September 2014. In September 2014, prices paid by first time buyers were 13.3% higher on average than in September 2013. For existing owners, prices increased by 11.5% for the same period. According to Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, the housing market recovery is still showing spritely movement, and good ground has been covered in property values compared to a year ago. ‘Values have retreated back from peak levels in the majority of regions across the country. London remains the spark plug injecting energy into the overall annual rise in UK house prices, and lively demand to live and work in the capital has always spurred growth on at a faster pace than in other regions,’ he said. ‘Following a slower than normal summer in London, an attractive combination of greater supply of property, excellent lending conditions and more realistic asking prices are attracting good amounts of potential buyers to the market,’ he added. David Newnes, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents, pointed out that recent hiccups in the market have not shaken the overall underlying stability. ‘Zooming in on the regional footprints unearths a more complex path of growth as the recovery continues to advance with a Southern leaning slant,’ he said. ‘If we omit London and the South East from our calculations, a milder annual change in property prices emerges. Yet at the very top end of the housing market in prime central areas of London, growth is subsiding,’ he added. He also pointed out that the firm’s research shows that October saw the highest level of house sales completed in a month since November 2007. ‘This increased level of house sale completions marks a considerable, though laborious, reflection of the increased buyer activity earlier in the year since the recession zapped the energy from the market. Not only this, but activity is starting to shift towards areas where the recovery still requires support and attention,’ he explained. The research also found that the biggest uplift in completions in the third quarter of 2014 compared to 2013 has been witnessed outside of London. Completed house sales in both the West Midlands and East Midlands have risen 22%, while in London house sale completions are up… Continue reading

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NLA calls for extension to PRS energy efficiency deadline

The National Landlords Association (NLA) has warned the UK government to tread cautiously in introducing minimum energy efficiency requirements in the private rented sector (PRS). The NLA has also called for an extension to the deadline for rented properties to reach minimum energy efficiency standards after the difficulties in introducing Green Deal finance into the sector. The warning was outlined in the NLA’s response to the consultation on the implementation of the provisions in the Energy Act 2011 to set minimum standards in the PRS. ‘The government set an original implementation date of 01 April 2018 for all private rented properties in the expectation that Green Deal finance would be available from autumn 2012, and that it would be supported by ECO subsidy,’ said NLA chief executive officer Richard Lambert. ‘As it turned out, Green Deal loans were inaccessible to private landlords until April 2014, by which time the restructured ECO was by and large unavailable to the sector. The Green Deal Home Improvement Fund proved to be an inadequate replacement, with all the funding for the 2014/2015 financial year apparently allocated within seven weeks, and the prospects for future funding are now highly uncertain,’ he pointed out. ‘This means that landlords have already effectively lost almost two years’ time to act and there is likely to be a hiatus in Green Deal applications until the future of the Government incentives has been clarified,’ he added. He also pointed out that setting the backstop date by which all tenancies must meet the minimum requirements at April 2020 is too soon. ‘Given the difficulties associated with the funding, which look likely to persist, we believe that it would be sensible instead to review actual progress in 2020 and to set a new working provisional date of April 2023,’ said Lambert. ‘It is vital that we prevent the situation arising where a responsible landlord, faced with the choice between not complying with the regulations or investing thousands of pounds in the knowledge that they are unlikely to recover the cost, let alone see a return, concludes that the rational business decision is to leave a property unimproved and empty,’ he concluded. Continue reading

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