Tag Archives: energy
Hotter Planet Will Make Corn Ethanol Unviable
June 5, 2013 If climate change continues at its current pace, in 40 years a hotter planet will lower corn production by 7 percent while requiring a 9 percent increase in irrigation water, putting US biofuel goals out of reach, says a study by University of California, Davis and Rice University researchers. The study, published in the American Chemical Society’s journal, Environmental Science and Technology , says climate change will hinder US goals of producing 15 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022 to blend with fossil fuel, as per the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. Pedro Alvarez, the head of Rice’s civil and environmental engineering department and lead author of the study, says the cost of water will spiral and outweigh concerns about emissions from fossil fuels, creating a trade-off. For the study, Alvarez’s team built computer simulations based on crop data from the nation’s top 10 corn-producing states: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Missouri and Kansas. They used estimates of carbon dioxide and other elements from a number of models, including the government’s Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. The simulations predict crop outcomes over the next 40 years in relation to expectations of climate change. The study found that the Corn Belt states and the Great Lakes region rely primarily on rainfall that would change its patterns, necessitating a 5 percent to 25 percent increase in irrigation, which would in turn require water catchment infrastructure. In the Great Plains region including South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, which rely heavily on irrigation, drought has already begun affecting farmland. This will lead to a decline in crop yields, even with continued irrigation. The Rice study calculates that the production of 1 liter of gasoline requires 3 liters of water, whereas the production of 1 liter of corn ethanol requires between 350 and 1,400 liters of water from irrigation, depending on the location. This is not the first time Alvarez has raised the red flag — he has been questioning US support of biofuel as a means to cut vehicle emissions since 2010, when he raised the issue in a white paper published by Rice’s Baker Institute of Public Policy . In 2009, Alvarez estimated that it would take 50 gallons of water to grow enough corn in Nebraska to produce the ethanol needed to drive one mile, in an Environmental Science and Technology report. Although the plains and the western US are still in the worst drought in more than 50 years, in April Reuters reported that this year’s corn, soybean and wheat harvest will be better than the summer of 2012. Continue reading
So The 2030 Decarbonisation Target Didn’t Pass – What Now?
04 Jun 2013, 16:30 Robin Webster MPs in the House of Commons today voted down a proposed new target to virtually decarbonise the power sector by 2030. So where does that leave plans to switch to low-carbon energy sources while keeping consumer bills down? The UK’s Energy Bill , now in its third reading in Parliament, contains a package of measures aimed at changing the way the UK generates electricity, shifting the country from fossil fuels to nuclear and renewables. But government advisor the CCC has said if the government wants to meet its legally-binding emissions reductions, it should create an interim target to virtually decarbonise the power sector by 2030. Conservative MP, Tim Yeo, who is chair of Parliament’s Energy and Climate Change (ECC) Committee, introduced an amendment to the bill that would have created the target, against the wishes of the Tory whips. But despite an energetic campaign in favour, the government opposed the measure and it was voted down by 290 to 267. So where does that leave us – and what happens now? The 2030 target – not dead yet The first thing to note is that the 2030 power decarbonisation target is in the bill. But the government has delayed discussion of whether it will be enacted until 2016 – or until after the CCC provides another round of advice. This is an odd position, however. The CCC has been very clear that it sees the decarbonisation target as fundamental to the government’s plans to reduce emissions. It doesn’t look that likely that it’s going to change its mind. The 2016 date is widely seen as a way of kicking the 2030 target into the long grass . No target, no long term plan? The government has promised to bump up renewables supply to 15 per cent of total energy by 2020 – and it has made a plan for how to do it. But there is confusion about the government’s intentions for renewables in the longer term. The government’s gas strategy , launched in December, contained no less than three different future scenarios for the future development of the country’s energy sector. One of the scenarios proposed significantly expanding the amount of power the country gets from gas – threatening emissions reductions targets. The CCC say the mixed messages coming from government are confusing. Investors need to know what the policy landscape – and what the subsidy levels – are going to look like if they are going to put money into big long-term projects like offshore wind farms. A variety of businesses agree. Could the ETS do the same job? But not everyone does. Thinktank, Policy Exchange , says the carbon cap created by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) means that it doesn’t make sense to set targets for the power sector – as any emissions reductions made over here would allow countries elsewhere in the EU to increase their emissions: “… British wind turbines will allow Polish coal to continue burning. While the ETS remains in place, the only way to reduce emissions from electricity further is to tighten the ETS cap.” There’s a practical problem with this argument, however. The European carbon price hit a record low at the beginning of this year and the scheme is struggling to stay afloat . If the UK waits for the ETS to reform before it sets any targets for the power sector, it could be waiting a while. What does the vote mean for consumer energy bills? There have been endless arguments over recent months about what renewables targets – and the energy bill as a whole – could mean for consumer energy bills. In a recent report, the CCC argued that a clear commitment to hitting the 2030 target could save the country somewhere between £25 and £45 billion. That’s partially because the country would avoid the cost of relying on gas. But it’s also because it would avoid the costs of decarbonising in a hurry after 2030. It’s worth noting that the CCC’s cost savings only apply if the country maintains its commitments to the climate change act. According to the committee, the 2030 target would essentially create a stepping stone towards the cheapest possible route to cutting emissions. Abandoning the targets in the climate change act could be cheaper still. But that relies on the price of fossil fuels like coal and gas staying low over the next couple of decades – not always a safe bet . Do we need targets? Predicting what’s going to happen to energy policy ten or fifteen years from now involves a lot of unknowns. Nuclear power stations might not get built, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology might not work commercially, or offshore wind could prove prohibitively expensive for example. Conservative MP, Charles Hendry , argues that this means it’s not a good idea to introduce the decarbonisation target: “…we would be requiring it [the target] to be set without knowing that it can be met, and that cannot be a responsible decision for government to make, when the costs of getting it wrong would have to be picked up by consumers for decades to come.” Of course, setting a target without knowing how the country is going to meet it isn’t exactly unprecedented in this area. Rumour has it that Tony Blair only signed up to an EU target for the expansion of renewables by mistake – because he got electricity and energy mixed up. The resulting EU-mandated target – which requires the country to expand the amount of renewable energy it uses to 15 per cent of total supply by 2020 – has created considerable controversy. But it has also driven expansion of UK renewables like never before. In the end, the immediate absence of the 2030 decarbonisation target from the energy bill won’t prevent investment in low carbon technologies, or stop the country hitting its emissions targets. But deadlines – even not very logical deadlines – are motivational, and create certainty about where the country is going. If a variety of energy businesses, investors and the committee on climate change are to be believed, today’s vote probably made it just a little bit less likely that the UK will hit its emissions targets. UPDATE: According to BusinessGreen , campaigners are hopeful that the amendment for the target could pass when the energy bill is discussed in the House of Lords. This would mean MPs have to discuss the issue again. 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EU States Seen Agreeing on Carbon-Fix Stance by ‘Early Fall’
By Ewa Krukowska – Jun 4, 2013 European Union nations may reach a negotiating position on a draft fix for the EU carbon market by “early fall” should the bloc’s Parliament approve the stopgap plan next month, according to Lithuania . “If there’s a mandate from the plenary in July” at the Parliament, “then we’ll work to reach a qualified majority position on backloading pretty soon, by early fall,” said Arunas Vinciunas, Lithuania’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the EU. His country takes over the EU’s rotating presidency next month. EU governments and the Parliament are considering a change to the region’s emissions-trading law to enable temporary curbs on the supply of carbon permits. The amendment is the first element of the carbon-market rescue plan, known as backloading, which would help prices rebound from record lows. EU carbon allowances for delivery in December rose as much as 4.9 percent to a seven-week high of 4.11 euros a metric ton on London ’s ICE Futures Europe exchange today. The contract slumped to an all-time low of 2.46 euros in April on concerns policymakers may fail to tackle a record glut of permits aggravated by an economic crisis. The EU carbon program imposes pollution limits on about 12,000 manufacturing companies and utilities in the region, including Germany ’s largest utility EON SE and steelmaker ArcelorMittal. The system, in which caps were set before the economic crisis, doesn’t allow any price floors or ceilings. After the slowdown reduced industrial production and cut into demand for pollution rights, the surplus of permits rose to around 2 billion metric tons last year, a level almost matching the annual supply, according to EU estimates. Delayed Auctions The backloading plan, which would delay auctions of some carbon permits, has divided governments, members of Parliament and industry. It was proposed last year by the European Commission, the EU’s regulatory arm, and needs approval by governments and the Parliament to be enacted. The Parliament’s environment committee is scheduled to recommend next steps on the draft measure on June 19 before the whole assembly holds a second vote on it on July 2. In the first ballot on April 16, lawmakers declined to support backloading and sent it to the environment panel for further talks. Should the assembly endorse the market fix next month, EU governments will need to adopt a position on the draft measure for talks with representatives of the Parliament on the final wording of the proposal. A potential deal in such negotiations, which are also known as trilogue because they also involve the commission, must be formally approved by the ministers and the assembly before it becomes a law. Merkel Call “Optimistically, we could start the trilogue in October,” Vinciunas said. While most member states favor backloading, they are short of the 255 votes needed in the EU weighted-ballot system to approve the proposal because several nations, including Germany, remain undecided. Chancellor Angela Merkel said last month she hoped Germany would be able to tackle the plan soon after elections on Sept. 22. Spain , which doesn’t have an official position on backloading yet, aims to decide on whether to back the plan in two weeks, its state secretary for environment Federico Ramos said on May 29. Poland, Cyprus and Greece , which have a total of 43 votes, have said they won’t back the measure. To stop it, they would have to form a blocking minority of 91 votes. Lithuania’s “optimism” is a good sign, because it indicates that, in its role as the EU presidency, the country is willing to put pressure on member states to take official positions on backloading even before German elections, said Konrad Hanschmidt, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance in London. Lithuania will chair meetings of climate officials from national governments and gatherings of the EU Council of Ministers in the second half of next year. “Nonetheless, it will be a difficult task to establish an official Council position before a new German cabinet has been elected,” Hanschmidt said. “That in turn would delay a potential trilogue.” To contact the reporter on this story: Ewa Krukowska in Brussels at ekrukowska@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lars Paulsson at lpaulsson@bloomberg.net Continue reading
