Tag Archives: election
Sales and rental markets in prime central London feeling election effect
Both property prices and the rental markets in prime central London are being affected by the uncertainty surrounding the next UK government as the election remains too close to call just hours before polling opens. Prices in this sector rose by 0.3% in April and have been broadly flat in recent months with annual growth dipping to 2.8% in April, according to the latest report from real estate firm Knight Frank. Indeed, it is the lowest rate since November 2009, a period when the market had begun to rebound following the collapse of Lehman Brothers the previous year. After an exceptionally strong run of growth that saw prime central London property cement its global reputation as a safe investment, political uncertainty has now replaced economic uncertainty, according to Knight Frank associate Tom Bill. ‘During an election campaign where the opinion polls remain deadlocked and a clear cut outcome is not immediately guaranteed, some sellers are waiting for more clarity before acting, which has led to pent-up demand,’ he said. He pointed out, however, that irrespective of the outcome, a growing number of vendors are lining up properties for sale once the election is over, which suggests there will be a bounce in transaction levels. He also explained that in the sales market demand remains robust, primarily on the back of a strengthening UK economy but also from overseas buyers who view London as an attractive place to live given the shifting nature of geo-political uncertainty around the world. ‘Tight supply and strong demand has in some instances led to a stand-off between buyers and sellers in the expectation that more stock will appear after the election. As a result, viewings were 14% lower in the year to March 2015 than the previous year,’ said Bill. ‘While there is less political uncertainty in lower price brackets and price growth broadly remains stronger below £2 million, there remains strong appetite for higher value property. Some deals have been done as sellers have adjusted asking prices down to reflect the fact growth has cooled across the various price bands,’ he explained. ‘It is also worth noting that annual price growth in prime central London has been slowing for three years, which means that some degree of political uncertainty is already priced in,’ he added. According to Bill, over the last year, the prime central London lettings market has benefited from uncertainty in the sales market surrounding the outcome of the general election and a number of buyers have opted to rent until the outcome is clear, though demand has been more broadly driven by the strengthening UK economy. ‘As the election moves closer, this trend has become less marked as a universal sense of hesitation permeates both the lettings and sales markets. Some prospective tenants have been holding out for the election result before deciding whether to rent or buy which, combined with the Easter holiday, led to fairly subdued activity across many markets in April after a strong… Continue reading
Monthly landlord survey reveals effect of general election on private rented sector
Three quarters of letting agents are concerned that proposals for the creation of three year tenancies in England and Wales put forward in the run up to this week’s UK general election, a new report reveals. Members of the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) believe that the proposal put forward by the Labour party will see landlords exit the market and reduce supply. However, over a third of ARLA agents agree the Conservatives’ pledge to build 200,000 new starter homes will benefit the private rental sector the most. The report comes at a time when demand for rental accommodation was down in March, whilst supply rises. Some 72% of ARLA letting agents said three year tenancies, with a cap on rents will see landlords pull out the market, and lead to a decrease in the supply of rental property landlords in the North West and East Midlands most likely to pull out the market, with 84% of ARLA agents in these regions expressing concern. As well as seeing a reduction in landlords and therefore supply of rental housing, 74% believe the proposed three year tenancy agreements with rent controls and strict rules to make it more difficult to evict tenants will not actually benefit tenants at all, up from 69% in February. Meanwhile, 37% of ARLA agents agree that the Conservatives’ pledge to build 200,000 new starter homes offered at 20% discount to first time buyers would be best for the private rented sector. This will enable a segment of the current British renting population to get on the housing market, freeing up more properties for renting, helping to ease supply and demand. The March report also shows how the upcoming election is having an effect on the current levels of supply and demand for the private rented sector, as people hold out to see the outcome. Demand was down by 10% in March with just 36 house hunters recorded, down from 40 in February. Supply is heading in the other direction, with a rise in the number of properties managed per branch at 192 properties in March, up from 184 the previous month. Rents continue to increase for some, as 32% ARLA agents said that rents increased between February and March, the same increase as the previous month. ‘The vast majority of ARLA letting agents are worried that Labour’s proposed three year tenancies with strict caps on rents will only cause the gap between supply and demand to widen,’ said David Cox, managing director of ARLA. ‘Flexible tenancies are what makes the sector work, if this changes, some landlords will be forced to exit the market and tenants are likely to automatically incur rent hikes and feel driven to stay in agreements for longer before getting on the housing ladder; thus not freeing up rental properties for other tenants,’ he explained. ‘The proposals are aimed at reducing opportunities for landlords to raise rents and to create stability for tenants. However, Labour’s proposals aren’t… Continue reading
UK house hunters holding off until general election result, agents believe
House hunters in the UK seem to be holding off making a decision with the country’s general election just a week away, according to the latest monthly report from estate agents. Some 63% of members of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) believe that demand for homes is at its lowest since last year with just 343 house hunters registered per branch compared with 406 last September when demand was at its highest. The report also shows that just 22% of total house sales in March were made to first time buyers, the lowest since July 2014 and down 30% from February. NAEA member agents are concerned about supply and demand for first time buyers as housing policy remains one of the big election issues. The report also shows that almost half, 48%, of agents favoured the Conservatives’ pledge to build 200,000 new starter homes, arguing that this initiative will be the most beneficial for the first time buyer housing market. However, only 6% back Labour’s promises to boost house building rates to 200,000 a year by 2020 and 31% do not believe that any of the proposed policies will be enough to straighten the market out. ‘We would always expect to see an event as monumental as a general election having an impact on the property market. But what makes this election so interesting is that no one knows what the result will be,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘And with housing featuring so prominently in all three main parties’ manifestos, buyers in particular are holding off to see what will happen. The outcome of the election will impact first, second, third and last time buyers,’ he added. The NAEA report also shows that while demand is down to 343 house hunters registered per branch in March, supply is up 12% from 43 to 48 houses available per NAEA member branch, as houses stay on the market for longer with nervous buyers. Demand still hugely outstrips supply, so a fall in demand does not affect the number of sales. March saw an increase in the amount of sales agreed per branch, with 10 sales going through, compared to eight in February. ‘We may have seen a slight increase in supply this month, but it is not an ongoing trend or a big enough jump to fill the gap for demand. It’s encouraging to see all parties actively proposing plans to regulate supply and demand,’ said Hayward. ‘However, the policies in place are unlikely to be enough to rectify the crippling situation we’re in. It’s all very well proposing to build 200,000 houses, but planning law, lack of infrastructure and available labour can make this process so lengthy that it may be ten or twenty years until we see this, by which time demand will be greater,’ he explained. ‘Although our agents have seen the market cooling off ahead of the General Election, it will inevitably bounce back again at a rapid… Continue reading
