Tag Archives: economy
Low mortgage rates and strong demand benefitting US home builders
Low mortgage rates and strong demand should create a positive outlook for home builders in the United States but a serious labour shortage could hold them back. During the 2009 recession nearly a quarter of construction workers lost their jobs as the housing market collapsed and there is evidence that a number of labourers are not returning, leaving remaining construction workers overstretched, says an analysis report from Hermes Investment Management. It explains that this lack of qualified labour causes two fundamental problems for the industry. First, the completion rate struggles to keep pace with demand, which is on the rise in the US, and secondly margins shrink as workers command much higher pay. However, one of the most fundamental challenges facing US home builders is a reduction in first time buyer demand. The report suggests that mounting student debts, lagging wage inflation, scarce financing and lifestyle preferences weigh on the desire to buy a first home. ‘While demand for housing is generally rising in the US, the lack of younger buyers could permanently or semi-permanently remove a key driver of demand,’ said analyst Andrey Kuznetsov. He pointed out that 49% of 25 year olds lived with their parents in 2013, some 20% higher than in 1999, dramatically reducing the aggregate number of households even without adding those choosing or having to rent. ‘While overall demand still outstrips supply, this gradual cultural shift is removing some pipeline demand,’ added Kuznetsov. The report also explains that housing market trends specific to certain US states can also work against home builders. Demand for housing in certain parts of Texas, such as Houston, started deteriorating after the oil price dramatically declined in late 2014 and continued to fall throughout the last year. This initially affected more expensive properties, but is now also impacting lower priced homes. In California, where international buyers are usually a significant presence in the market, the stronger US dollar and weakness in buyers’ home economies are deterrents. Additionally, the volatility in equity markets could slow the demand from employees of the historically buoyant tech sector in the state. Home builders with above average exposure to these markets are increasingly at risk. However, it adds that short housing supply and low mortgage rates, the average 30 year loan charges 3.65% interest, suggest that fundamentals for the sector are strong. ‘However, in an environment where build times are lengthening, margins are under pressure, demand from first time buyers is declining and certain regional risks are increasing, we think there is more risk to the downside. Furthermore, the sector is trading at a relatively expensive level compared to others, supporting our negative view,’ said Kuznetsov. Continue reading
British buyers returning to French property market
There is a renewed optimism in France’s residential property market which has led to a significant upturn in sales, according to a new analysis report. A new analysis points out that a more stable economic outlook in the country, which is still popular with overseas buyers, has filtered through into buyer sentiment. The latest data from international real estate firm Knight Frank shows that sales in France doubled between 2014 and 2015, whilst enquiries from prospective buyers increased 87% year on year. It also points out that the figures from the Notaires de France, backs this up, with the most up to date statistics showing sales across the country have increased by 12.5% year on year. The analysis also points out that with favourable mortgage rates of around 2.3%, prices stabilising in most prime markets and the euro weak against both the pound and the US dollar, buyer confidence has strengthened. But this confidence is price dependent. Sales volumes are strongest within the €1 million to €5 million price bracket but transactions above €5 million are slow. According to Mark Harvey, head of Knight Frank’s French department, two indicators underline the extent to which the market has shifted in the last two to three years. Firstly, the performance and convergence of France’s prime prices and secondly excess supply is being absorbed. ‘Not only have prices reached their floor in the majority of France’s key second home markets, but all of our five regions saw prices shift within a range of only 5%five percentage points. For several years we saw a marked disparity between France’s strongest and weakest markets, this has now all but disappeared,’ he said. ‘The excess supply that was evident for several years in areas such as Gascony and Provence has now largely been absorbed back into the market. Add to this the slow recovery in house building it is possible that when prices start to pick up they could do so relatively quickly due to limited stock levels,’ he explained. Another key factor for the recovery of France’s property market is that British buyers are back. The British own more second homes in France at 69,000 than in any other European country. ‘Given the lifestyle on offer, France’s proximity and the currency advantage in recent years it is perhaps no surprise that the British are active once more and represent a key source of demand in all of our markets,’ said Harvey. He also pointed out that equipped with a strong dollar, American buyers are also increasing in number, particularly in Paris and parts of Gascony, whilst Evian continues to be in favour with high net worth buyers from the Middle East, drawn to its lakeside living and easy access to The Alps. Demand from domestic buyers has also strengthened. ‘Faced with lower purchasing power abroad, a more positive political sentiment, cheap finance and good value, particularly in Paris, French buyers are seeking a slice of their capital’s real estate,’ Harvey explained. ‘Across France interest… Continue reading
Residential rental prices up 2.5% in UK in 2015
Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2015, according to the latest index from the Office of National Statistics. Private rental prices grew by 2.7% in England, 0.7% in Wales and 0.9% in Scotland with rental prices increasing the most in London at 3.9%. When London is excluded the national year on year growth is 1.8%. Some of the more detailed ONS figures show that since January 2011 England rental prices have increased more than those of Wales and Scotland. The annual rate of change for Wales continues to be below that of England and the Great Britain average. Rental growth in Scotland has slowed to 0.9% in the year to December 2015, from 2.1% in the year for the months of January through to June 2015. The index series for England starts in 2005. Private rental prices in England show three distinct periods: rental price increases from January 2006 until October 2009, rental price decreases from December 2009 to October 2010, and increasing rental prices from November 2010 onwards. Of these three periods, 2008 showed the largest rental price increases. When London is excluded, England shows a similar pattern but with slower rental price increases from around January 2011. Since the beginning of 2012, English rental prices have shown annual increases ranging between 1.4% and 3% year on year, with December 2015 rental prices being 2.7% higher than December 2014 rental prices. Excluding London, England showed an increase of 1.9% for the same period. In the 12 months to December 2015, private rental prices increased in each of the nine English regions with the largest in London at 3.9% followed by the East at 2.8% and the South East also at 2.8%. Rental price increases have been stronger in London than the rest of England since November 2010. The rental market continued to show signs of strength overall in the fourth quarter of 2015 as prices increased by 2.5% in the year to December 2015 but this was a slowdown of 0.2% in the annual growth rate compared with September 2015. The ONS report says that this slowdown is partly driven by Scotland, where prices increased 0.9% in the year to December 2015, a fall of 0.7% compared with the annual growth rate in September 2015. It also points out that conditions in the housing market as a whole may have been supporting rental price growth. Data from the ONS house price index for November 2015 shows that house price growth has typically been stronger than rent price growth for a number of years. The Bank of England’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions for the fourth quarter of 2015 reported that private rental demand continued to grow steadily in the three months to December. Data from RICS’ Residential Market Survey for November 2015 confirmed this growth, noting that national tenant demand continued to grow in the three months to November 2015. The strength… Continue reading
