Tag Archives: economy
Pending home sales fall across the United States, latest index shows
Pending home sales in the United States cooled in September for the second month in a row, taking them to their second lowest index reading in 2015, according to the latest index. All four major regions experienced a pullback in activity in September, the Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors shows. The index declined 2.3% to 106.8 in September from a slightly downwardly revised 109.3 in August but is still 3% above September 2014 when it was 103.7. With last month's decline, the index is now at its second lowest level of the year but has still increased year on year for 13 straight months. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that a combination of factors likely led to September's dip in contract signings. ‘There continues to be a dearth of available listings in the lower end of the market for first time buyers and realtors in many areas are reporting stronger competition than what's normal this time of year because of stubbornly low inventory conditions,’ he explained. ‘Additionally, the rockiness in the financial markets at the end of the summer and signs of a slowing US economy may be causing some prospective buyers to take a wait and see approach,’ he added. Despite contract activity softening from the more robust levels seen earlier this year, Yun believes the housing market will still likely be one of the brighter spots in the economy in coming months. ‘With interest rates hovering around 4%, rents rising at a near eight year high, and job growth holding strong, albeit at a more modest pace than earlier this year, the overall demand for buying should stay at a healthy level despite some weakness in the overall economy,’ he added. The PHSI in the Northeast fell 4% to 89.6 in September, but is still 3.9% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 2.5% to 104.7 in September, but remains 4.3% above September 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 2.6% to an index of 118.3 in September and are now 0.1% below last September. The index in the West inched back 0.2% in September to 104.4, but is still 6.6% above a year ago. Continue reading
American and Continental style Build to Rent set to take off in UK
American style Build to Rent developments are catching on in the UK with the first due to be complete later this year and more set to come on stream in the next 18 months. The Build to Rent concept, known as multifamily in the US, could potentially transform the private rental sector into a service industry in the UK, according to industry experts. A report from law firm Addleshaw Goddard and the British Property Federation says the growth of the sector is good news for the economy, investors and tenants. With nine million people renting in the UK, Build to Rent has the potential to improve standards and provide better value and greater transparency. These developments are converted offices or purpose built apartment blocks which are professionally managed by specialist companies and rented out to private tenants. They mark a big step away from the traditional renting scene in the UK and some countries on the continent, including France and Spain, where residential properties are largely privately held and development of apartments has failed to keep pace with demand. ‘What it means for your average tenant is probably a better quality of life. When for example, the toilet breaks, there are people to fix it right away. As a tenant you don’t spend time managing the property, you get someone else to do it for you and you get on with living your life,’ said Adam Challis, head of residential research at real estate services firm JLL. Indeed, good maintenance of properties is an area where many small private landlords currently fall short. ‘Build to Rent has the potential to vastly improve standards in housing and because companies invest for the long term, they are more open to innovative design and more creative approaches which keep customers happy,’ said Marnix Elsenaar, head of housing at Addleshaw Goddard. As a growing sector, Build to Rent is now attracting the interest of investors. ‘The London story, and the UK story generally, is pretty unique in that we don’t have an institutional quality residential asset class yet,’ Challis explained, adding that this is set to change if the build to rent sector in countries such as the UK, Spain and France follows in the footsteps of the US. Multifamily investment is big business in America. Popular among private equity and pension funds, it offers some of the best returns in American real estate and last year saw record breaking volumes of $110 billion, topping the 2007 peak. And European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands already built up a multifamily market which continues to grow. JLL figures show demand for development and new build investments in the major German cities remains robust with €340 million invested in the first quarter of 2015. Similarly in the Netherlands, residential investment volumes hit €710 million, which is a 189 percent increase year on year and Sweden’s residential sector also continues to perform well. This bodes well for development in the… Continue reading
UK house prices continue to creep upward, latest index shows
House prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in October, taking the average price of a home to £196,807, according to the latest index to be published. The data from the Nationwide, one of the country’s main lenders, prices are now up 3.9% year on year. The report points out that over the past five months annual price growth has remained in a fairly narrow range between 3% and 4%, broadly consistent with earnings growth over the longer term. ‘While this bodes well for a sustainable increase in housing market activity, much will depend on whether building activity can keep pace with increasing demand,’ said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist. He also pointed out that fixed rate mortgages have remained the most popular because of ongoing uncertainty about when the Bank of England might introduce an interest rate rise. ‘Historically low interest rates have helped to offset the negative impact of rising house prices on affordability. Indeed, even though house prices are at an all-time high, the cost of servicing a typical mortgage is still close to the long term average as a share of take home pay,’ Gardner explained. He said that fewer variable interest rate mortgages should help to insulate many households from the impact of higher interest rates but he warned that the majority of recent fixes are for relatively short time periods with 65% for two years and 30% for five years. ‘Nevertheless, the housing market should be able to cope with higher interest rates in the year ahead, provided the increase is modest and the economy and the labour market remain in good shape,’ he said ‘Guidance from the Bank of England suggests that the increase in interest rates is likely to be gradual, and that they are expected to settle at a level somewhat below the average prevailing before the financial crisis, which should help ensure borrowing costs remain manageable,’ he added. Alex Gosling, chief executive officer of online estate agents HouseSimple believes that as building activity is highly unlikely to keep up with demand, average house prices are likely to continue to rise and rising interest rates could affect many home owners. ‘It's hard to believe but many home owners have never known a conventional interest rate environment, and when it finally comes it could well prove a shock. If the economy holds firm then gradual rate rises will be better accommodated, but the extent of the impact of a rate rise on the market remains a great unknown,’ he explained. ‘What we can say with near certainty is that if rates rise sharply, many borrowers could get caught out. Thankfully people are moving to fixed rate mortgages to protect themselves,’ he added. According to Mark Dyason, director of Edinburgh Mortgage Advice, borrowers know higher rates are coming sooner or later and they are thinking ahead. ‘First time buyers and people with smaller deposits are especially likely to select a fixed rate because that's what most lenders are… Continue reading
