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A rent freeze in London could seriously reduce number of properties available, study finds

Some 60% of London landlords would reduce the size of their property portfolios in the event of a rent freeze, new research has found. The report commissioned by the London Assembly Housing Committee carried out by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR), surveyed amateur landlords with just a few properties as well as commercial build to rent landlords and investors. CCHPR put forward six potential scenarios of rent stabilisation, from a one off rent freeze for three years, through to linking rent rises to wage rises. The study found that the majority of landlords would continue as they are if rents could only be increased in line with inflation, although 40% of participants stated that they would sell some or all of their properties if this measure was introduced. What's more, the report claims that on the whole landlords taking part are not keen to offer longer tenancies but 52% said they would be more inclined to do so if tax incentives were available for doing so. ‘Much has been said from all sides about rent controls but the debate has been sorely lacking in facts, so it's incredibly useful to have these set out in this report,’ said Tom Copley, chair of the London Assembly Housing Committee. ‘The choice is not simply between regulating rents and not regulating rents. There is no one size fits all system of rent control, with many cities around the world adopting different models. Each system has upsides and downsides,’ he explained. ‘In terms of what would work for London we need solutions that work for the millions of Londoners, especially families, in the rental sector. For families, the prospect of having to up sticks with very little notice often means disruption to many aspects of their lives, including schooling and employment,’ he added. According to David Smith, policy director for the Residential Landlords Association, it is clear that the country will need more homes to rent, if it is to address the housing crisis. ‘This report reminds us of the dangers of rent controls which would in fact reduce supply, thereby increasing rents. Rent controls would also severely reduce standards in rented housing as investment dries up,’ he said. Continue reading

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European commercial property markets sees 30% growth year on year

The European commercial property investment market has continued to gain positive momentum, with transaction volumes reaching €104.9 billion in the first half of 2015. This was a 29% increase on the same period of 2014 and investment volumes for 2015 are forecast to reach €230 billion, which would make it comfortably the best year since the market peak of 2007. The data from the analysis report from international real estate firm Knight Frank shows that increased investment volumes were recorded in the first six months of the year across a wide range of markets, in both the core and the periphery of Europe. The continent’s two largest markets, the UK and Germany, performed strongly in the first half of the year, providing a significant boost to overall deal volumes. The UK is on course for a record breaking year for investment, while the German market has been buoyed the strong performances of Frankfurt and Berlin. The analysis report shows that the revival of activity in Europe’s peripheral countries has continued, as investors move up the risk curve and seek value in non-core markets. Spain and Ireland, which have led the peripheral market recovery over the last 18 months, continue to attract heightened levels of investment, but the most impressive increases in activity during the first half of the year came in Italy and Portugal. It also shows that the weight of money targeting commercial property has led to widespread yield compression, and prime office yields hardened in cities such as Amsterdam, Lisbon, Madrid, Milan and Paris during the second quarter of 2015. Knight Frank’s European weighted average prime office yield moved in to 4.9%, its lowest level since the third quarter of 2007. While investment activity is buoyant in the large majority of European markets, occupier market trends remain more varied. Rental growth was patchy in the second quarter with Dublin, Madrid and Vienna being among the small number of European markets to record increases in prime office rents. However, rental growth is anticipated to become more prevalent in the medium term, on the back of the improving European economy and falling availability levels, particularly for CBD offices. ‘Investment volumes continue to be driven upwards by the strong international demand for European commercial property, particularly from US investors, and by the increasing number of large portfolio deals,’ said Andrew Sim, head of European Capital Markets at Knight Frank. ‘These trends are expected to continue over the rest of the year, and we forecast that annual European investment in 2015 will be more than 20% up on 2014. European transaction volumes are approaching the levels seen at the market peak of 2007, and several countries may well set new records this year,’ he added. According to Matthew Colbourne, associate with the Knight Frank international research team, European occupier markets continue to see mixed trends, in contrast to the widespread buoyancy of investment markets. ‘Office take-up increased strongly in the key German and Spanish markets… Continue reading

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Property prices outside Dublin rising faster year on year, latest data shows

Residential property prices in Ireland increased by 0.9% across the country in July compared to the previous month but values in Dublin price growth is slowing, the latest official figures show. On an annual basis prices are 9.4% higher nationwide but in Dublin they are 9% higher than a year ago. It is the first time since the middle of 2013 that prices in the capital city have risen by less than 10% year on year. A breakdown of the data from the Central Statistical Office shows that Dublin house prices rose by 0.6% in July whilst apartment prices increased by 2.7%. However, a CSO spokesman said that it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. Outside of Dublin residential property prices rose by 1.2% in July and prices were up 9.6% compared with July 2014. So prices outside of Dublin are now rising faster on an annual basis. At national level residential property prices were 36.9% lower than their peak level in 2007. Dublin house prices were 36.3% lower than their peak, Dublin apartment prices were 40.6% lower than their peak and Dublin residential property prices overall were 37.9% lower than their highest level. Outside of Dublin residential property prices were 39.8% lower than their highest level in 2007. According to Dermot O’Leary, chief economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers, it had been expected that prices outside Dublin would rise at a faster pace because new mortgage rules were having a bigger impact in Dublin. ‘We expect further moderation over the coming months, with the slowdown in price inflation to be particularly felt in the capital,’ he said, adding that house price inflation continued to be supported by ongoing supply shortages. Experts are now predicting that residential property prices are likely to slow towards 5% by the end of the year. Continue reading

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