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Foreclosed homes in US increased in value almost twice as much as others
Homes that were foreclosed during the housing crisis in the United States have gained almost twice as much value as other homes, according to a new analysis. But the original owners of those homes have not benefited from that recovery as low end homes were much more likely to be foreclosed, the report from real estate firm Zillow shows. It explains that during the run-up to the housing bubble, many low income earners bought homes, and the home ownership rate rose from about 65% in the middle of the 1990s to almost 70% in 2006. However, when home values crashed in 2007, millions of home owners had to walk away, abandoning their initial investment and missing the opportunity to gain equity as home values recovered. It also points out that the rich-poor divide is growing in the US. In 2000 high income households made an average of six times as much income as the lowest third of households. In 2015, the top third made nearly seven times as much as the lowest third. Of all foreclosed homes, some 46.7% were among the least expensive third of homes. Only 16.6% were among the most expensive third. Foreclosed homes gained value faster than other homes, and in many markets, are more valuable now than they've ever been. Since the lowest point in the housing bust, the average US home has risen 22% in value, while the average foreclosed home has risen 39% in value. The report suggests that in many cases, investors bought foreclosed homes and converted them into rental properties, benefiting from the recovery as home values bounced back. The percentage of single family homes being rented out has risen from 13% to 19% over the past decade. ‘Income inequality is an important topic in the US right now, because the gap between the richest and poorest Americans is growing,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘Many lower income Americans lost their homes during the foreclosure crisis, forcing them to pay ever increasing rents and locking them out of the benefits of the housing market recovery,’ she added. Meanwhile, a separate report from the National Association of Realtors shows that at a national level, housing affordability is down from a year ago as higher prices continue to outpace household income growth. Housing affordability declined from a year ago in April pushing the NAR index from 167.5 to 162.4. The median sales price for a single family home sold in April in the US was $233,700 up 6.3% from a year ago. Regionally, all four regions saw declines in affordability from a year ago. The Midwest had the largest decline of 5.6%, the South had a decline in the affordability index of 3.4%, followed by the West with 2%. The Northeast had the smallest dip in affordability at 1%. By region, affordability is down in all regions from the previous month. The Midwest with a fall of 6.2% had the biggest decline, followed by the South and West… Continue reading
No interest rate cut in UK unlikely to affect property market
The surprise decision by the Bank of England not to announce a cut in the UK’s already historic low interest rates is unlikely to have much impact on the property market with some experts believing it could boost real estate. Even if the bank rate had been cut to 0.25% from 0.5% there would have been little room for improvement, according to David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, who pointed out that mortgage rates are already at record lows and there is little room for them to go much lower. ‘Inter lender competition has played a significant part in this and with yields on swaps and UK gilts remaining near record lows, mortgage borrowers will continue to benefit from enhanced affordability for some time. Property investors with sound financial planning and a long term outlook are therefore well placed to take advantage of continued generous pricing,’ he said. ‘Property prices could be a little bumpy in the short term and the Monetary Policy Committee has highlighted a weakening of activity in the housing market. This might trim some short term capital gains on offer but in the long term, the outlook for investors remains positive. Supply of housing in the UK remains significantly out of sync with demand which will support price increases over coming years. Furthermore, high levels of demand for rental accommodation will provide landlords with strong yields,’ he added. Lucian Cook, Savills UK head of residential research, explained that the two year fixed rate has already levelled out. ‘We may now see lenders margins edge up. However, this is likely to be no more than a squeeze on affordability for mortgaged home owners, suggesting that what happens to the housing market in the short term will have more to do with sentiment than the cost of debt,’ he said. ‘The cost of borrowing will become more important once we see the economic impact of the decision to leave the EU, but for now the Bank still has the option of reducing rates up its sleeve,’ he added. ‘A greater level of political stability following the appointment of the new Prime Minister probably helped to steer the decision to hold interest rates, according to Andrew Burrell, head of forecasting at JLL. ‘This can also be taken as a move to reassure the market that the Bank will not take knee jerk reactions and will remain calm under pressure. The market itself is also operating at low rate levels which may have removed the urgency to cut rates this month,’ he pointed out. ‘Indeed, interest rates continue to soften along the yield curve with most maturities at record lows. A cut shouldn’t be ruled out in August, however, after the market has been given more time to adjust and longer term sentiment is clearer,’ he concluded. Adam Challis, head of residential research at JLL, pointed out that even if there had been a cut… Continue reading
London residential rental market disparate due to Brexit uncertainty
Rents in London have peaked in many locations with the market currently stagnant and facing uncertainty due to the UK deciding to leave the European Union, the latest analysis suggests. While Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings' Heat Map generally shows relatively consistent trends across the capital, second quarter results show a disparate market. For example rents were up more than 4% in Chelsea but in nearby South Kensington they were down more than 4%. Similar contradictory results were to be found across London with adjacent areas showing wildly different fortunes. The report explains that even in the early part of this year, uncertainty over Brexit was affecting the prime central London rental market. Non-nationals were awaiting the result of the referendum while UK nationals were finding better value in East London and the suburbs. Rents in central London were falling, much to the frustration of landlords who were also suffering from the double blow of stagnating capital growth. Rental value growth was to be found in outer London until recently. However, the most recent figures from Benham & Reeves Lettings demonstrates that rental values have finally peaked there, as well. Most areas outside of prime central London saw rents plateau or boast only nominal growth. The report says it is perhaps noteworthy that there is a lack of definable trends. Hampstead Garden Suburb saw growth of over 4.5% while adjacent North Finchley saw rents fall by over 10%. The report suggests that the contrast may be due in part to the reopening of the Northern Line interchange at Tottenham Court Road. The eastern part of the City also saw double digit growth, thanks in part to the release of some highly anticipated new developments in the area, while the western part of the City saw rents fall by over 4%. ‘There is nothing the property market hates more than uncertainty. While the referendum result may not have been what many London residents wanted, it has provided us with an answer,’ said Marc von Grundherr of Benham & Reeves Lettings. ‘Our quarter two results are a reflection of what was happening in the market in the run up to the vote. If anything, the referendum result could be just what the market needed. The rental market always benefits in financially volatile times as people would rather rent than commit to buying a property,’ he explained. ‘Demand is still strong and since the referendum, we are receiving an average of 17 applicants per property compared to 13.9 at this time last year. Notably, many of the applicants have been from the EU,’ he added. Continue reading
