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City property price index reaches record high in Australia
Property prices in Australian capital cities increased by 0.8% in July, a new record high, with values now 6.3% higher than the first seven months of the year, the latest published data shows. However, while overall values are still rising, four of Australia’s eight capital cities recorded a fall in dwelling values over the month, the CoreLogic July home value index also shows. Simultaneously, the rate of growth across the combined capitals aggregate index slipped back a notch after bouncing higher in April and May. The annual rate of growth, which hit a recent peak at 11.1% across the combined capitals index in October last year, is now tracking at 6.1%, the slowest annual rate of appreciation since September 2013. Sydney and Melbourne have also seen the annual rate of growth slip back to below 10% with the July indices showing a respective 9.1% and 7.5% capital gain over the past 12 months. Previously both Sydney and Melbourne’s capital gains peaked higher with Sydney reaching a peak rate of annual growth in July last year when dwelling values were rising by 18.4% annum and when Melbourne values were increasing by 14.2% per annum over the 12 months ending September last year. Darwin and Perth remain as the only two capital cities to record a negative movement in dwelling values over the past year with prices in Darwin down 7.6% and Perth values falling by 5.6%. July marks the 50th month of the combined capitals growth cycle, which commenced in June 2012. Over the cycle to date, capital city dwelling values have risen by 38.3% and according to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless this demonstrates the strength in the Sydney and Melbourne growth trend with dwelling values across the two largest capitals recording a cumulative 61.3% and 42% over the cycle to date. Hobart, where the growth trend has recently accelerated, has been the next best performer with values rising 17.6% over the growth cycle followed by Brisbane at 17.4%, Adelaide at 14.3% and Canberra at 12.4%. ‘The recent moderation in the rate of capital gains should be viewed as a positive sign that growth in dwelling values may be returning to more sustainable levels. However, the growth trend rate is still tracking considerably faster than income growth resulting in a deterioration of housing affordability,’ said Lawless. ‘Using Sydney as a case in point, the Australian National University estimates that Sydney household incomes have grown by approximately 4.5% per annum since June 2012 while dwelling values are up 12.1% per annum,’ he added. Continue reading
New research shows huge fall in home ownership in England, not just London
Home ownership in England has fallen to a 30 year low with cities in the north of the country worst hit by lower number of people owning their own home, according to new research. Greater Manchester, South and West Yorkshire and the West Midlands Metropolitan area have seen double digit falls in home ownership since their early 2000s peak, the analysis report from think tank the Resolution Foundation. The analysis shows that having peaked at 71% in 2003, the proportion of people owning their own home across England has fallen steadily over the last decade by 8% and suggests that the widely reported increase in home ownership in 2014 was likely a blip to correct a sharp fall the year before, rather than a welcome reversal of a long standing trend. The Foundation says that while much of the discussion around the struggle to buy a home has centred on London, Greater Manchester has actually recorded the sharpest fall in home ownership of any major city area in the last decade or so. In 2003 some 72% of households living in Greater Manchester were owners, slightly above the average across England as a whole. However, home ownership has since plummeted by 14%, almost twice as fast as it has in England and a whole, and by last year just 58% of households living in Manchester owned their own home. The Foundation notes that people living in Greater Manchester are no more likely to own a home than people living in Outer London, and that home ownership rates have fallen below all other big northern city areas apart from Tyne and Wear. It says falling deposit affordability has played a major role in this trend. The Foundation warns however that plummeting home ownership isn’t confined to Greater Manchester. It notes that Outer London, South and West Yorkshire, and the West Midlands Metropolitan Area have also experienced double digit falls in home ownership since the early 2000s. This fall in home ownership has corresponded with a near doubling in the proportion of private renters across England, up from 11% in 2003 to 19% in 2015. The proportion of households renting privately in Greater Manchester has more than trebled over that period, from 6% to 20%, while Outer London and West Yorkshire have also reported double digit growth. The Foundation says that the shift from home ownership to private renting, which is taking place throughout England, particularly among young people, is concerning for a number of reasons. It notes that households in the private rented sector spend a far higher share of their income on housing than those who own with a mortgage, 30% compared to 23%, helping to explain the fact that the share of income that households spend on housing across the UK has increased by around a quarter since 2003 and by around a third in the North West. Renters are also more likely to face the greater insecurity associated with short term contracts,… Continue reading
Pending home sales static in US in June, latest index shows
Pending home sales in the United States were mostly static in June but the latest index from the National Association of Realtors is now at its second highest reading over the last year. However, supply and affordability constraints prevented a bigger boost in activity from mortgage rates that lingered near all-time lows through most of the month and increases in the Northeast and Midwest were offset by declines in the South and West. Overall the NAR’s pending home sales index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, was up 0.2% month on month and is 1% higher than June 2015. But it is noticeably down from this year's peak level in April. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, a solid bump in activity in the Northeast pulled up pending sales modestly in June. ‘With only the Northeast region having an adequate supply of homes for sale, the reoccurring dilemma of strained supply causing a run-up in home prices continues to play out in several markets, leading to the last two months reflecting a slight, early summer cooldown after a very active spring,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately for prospective buyers trying to take advantage of exceptionally low mortgage rates, housing inventory at the end of last month was down almost 6% from a year ago and home prices are showing little evidence of slowing to a healthier pace that more closely mirrors wage and income growth,’ he pointed out. ‘Until inventory conditions markedly improve, far too many prospective buyers are likely to run into situations of either being priced out of the market or outbid on the very few properties available for sale,’ he added. One noteworthy and positive development occurring in the housing market during the first half of the year, according to Yun, is that sales to investors have subsided from a high of 18% in February to a low of 11% in June, which is the smallest share since July 2009. Yun attributes this retreat to the diminished number of distressed properties coming onto the market at any given time and the ascent in home prices, which have now risen year on year for 52 consecutive months. ‘Limited selection of homes at bargain prices is reducing the number of individual investors willing or able to buy. This will hopefully open the door for first-time buyers, who made some progress last month but are still buying homes at a subpar level even as rents increase at rates not seen since before the downturn,’ Yun explained. In spite of the slight slowdown in contract signings from April's peak high, existing home sales this year are still expected to be around 5.44 million, 3.6% higher from 2015 and the highest annual pace since 2006 when it was 6.48 million. After accelerating to 6.8% a year ago, national median existing home price growth is forecast to slightly moderate to around 4%. A breakdown of the figures show that in the Northeast the index was up 3.2%… Continue reading
