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Demand for rural land in the UK fell sharply in first half of 2016
Demand in the UK’s rural land market fell sharply in the first half of 2016 while supply continued to increase, albeit very modestly, the latest industry survey shows. This rise in supply relative to demand pushed 12 month price expectations deeper into negative territory with a net balance of 49% of contributors now expecting prices to fall, across all farm types, over the coming year. The data from the RICS/RAE rural land market survey also shows that yields on investment land drifted slightly down, to 1.6% and anecdotal evidence from respondents suggests that increased uncertainty due to the Brexit vote and resulting confusion over the future of CAP payments has weighed on the market. This has compounded the already subdued demand due to low commodity prices, the report points out and while commercial farmland continues to experience the worst of the current downturn with demand falling most substantially, blocks with a residential component also saw a sharp contraction in buyer interest. Indeed, some 19% more contributors reported a fall rather than a rise. Likewise, while expectations for prices at the 12 month horizon are slightly worse for commercial farmland, the outlook for mixed residential farmland turned markedly more negative in the first six months of the year with a net balance of 42% of surveyors expecting prices to fall rather than rise over the next year. The survey’s transaction based measure of farmland prices, which includes a residential component where its value is estimated to be less than 50% of total, edged down in the latest period and now stands at £10,750 per acre. Meanwhile, the survey’s opinion based measure, a hypothetical estimate by surveyors of the price of bare land, fell by 4% between the first half of 2016 and the second half of last year. Since 2015, the difference between the two measures has widened somewhat and RICS says that this may reflect several influences but the fact that the transaction based measure contains some residential element is probably a significant factor at the moment, given that residential prices in most parts have continued to rise steadily over the past year. According to surveyors, average arable land rents fell by 8.8% in the first half of the year and by 3.1% over the year as a whole. Average pasture land rents fell by 6.7% and by 7.3% respectively. The buyer profile has remained broadly unchanged over recent years with individual farmers still representing around 60% of purchases. Meanwhile lifestyle buyers compose around a quarter of the demand. Continue reading
Canadian housing market sees largest year on year fall in sales since 2013
National home sales fell 1.3% from June to July in Canada, the third month in a row that transactions have fallen, and fell by 2.9% year on year, the largest since 2013. The data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also shows that the national average sale price was up 9.9% in July year on year but when Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver are excluded from the figure this dropped to 7%. Sales activity was down from the previous month in slightly more than half of all markets in July, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Transactions in these two markets peaked in February of this year, and have since then dropped by 21.5% and 28.8% respectively. According to CREA president Cliff Iverson much of the national sales decline in recent months reflects slowing activity in B.C.’s Lower Mainland area. ‘National sales and price trends continue to be heavily influenced by a handful of places in Ontario and British Columbia and mask significant variations in local housing market trends and conditions across Canada,’ he explained. Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said that the figures suggest that sales are being reined in by a lack of inventory and a further deterioration in affordability. He pointed out that the new 15% property transfer tax on Metro Vancouver home purchases by foreign buyers took effect on 02 August so it will take some time before the effect of the new tax on sales and prices can be observed. A breakdown of the figures shows that actual, not seasonally adjusted, sales activity was down 2.9% year on year July 2016, the first annual decline since January 2015 and the largest since April 2013. In line with softening activity in the Lower Mainland, year on year increases have been losing momentum since February 2016. Sales were down from levels one year earlier in about 60% of all Canadian markets, led by Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Edmonton. The number of newly listed homes rose by 1.2 percent in July 2016 compared to June. While new supply climbed in fewer than half of all local markets, increases in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Greater Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton outweighed declines in smaller markets. With sales down and new listings up, the national sales to new listings ratio eased to 61.6% in July 2016, its second monthly decline following its peak of 65.3% in May. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in July, virtually all of which continue to be located in British Columbia, in and around the Greater Toronto Area and across Southwestern Ontario. The CREA report points out that the number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance… Continue reading
Prime seaside properties in UK can cost up to 71% more
It’s well documented that that living by the sea in the UK comes at a cost with the latest research showing prime properties on the coast can cost as much as 71% more. The prime waterfront index from international real estate firm Knight Frank points to a number of towns and cities along the Devon, Dorset and Cornwall coast which have surpassed the wider property market over the last two decades in terms of price growth. Using data from the Land Registry, based on actual sales volumes going back to 1995, the index has calculated the annual price performance of individual coastal markets relative to the average price increase across the three counties. Croyde in North Devon has been the best performing coastal market over this time, with annual outperformance of 4.1% on average. While this may seem relatively muted over the course of a year, over 20 years this equates to cumulative price growth of around 122% above the wider Cornwall, Devon and Dorset area. Over the past two decades, Croyde has seen prices more than quadruple, by 432%, compared to 310% combined across the three local authorities. A number of other long established prime markets including Rock, Salcombe, Padstow and Falmouth feature in the hotspots identified in the research, and have all experienced outperformance of at least 2% annually since 1995 according to the analysis. The index report points out that price growth and outperformance can be very location specific. For example, the average annual price outperformance for the top 15 best performing small coastal towns and villages has been 2.8%, compared with 2.6% for medium sized coastal towns such as Christchurch, Topsham and Lyme Regis and 2.5% for the top five large coastal towns or cities including Bournemouth and Exeter. It also explains that higher outperformance in smaller settlements since 1995 is likely to be related to the scarcity of available stock relative to demand. Demand for prime coastal property comes from a variety of sources. Such markets benefit from their appeal to upsizers and downsizers often moving within the local area or looking for a lifestyle change, as well as second and holiday-home buyers. The research also points out that many homes bought in top seaside locations are second homes and the announcement in the Chancellor’s 2015 Autumn Statement that a higher rate of stamp duty would be introduced for additional properties, including second homes, from April 2016 prompted a number of purchasers to bring forward deals ahead of its introduction. ‘In the short term, it may take time for the tax to be absorbed, especially in a market where there are notable levels of discretionary purchases. In turn, this may have an impact on pricing, potentially providing opportunities for committed buyers,’ the report says. ‘Over the longer term we believe transaction volumes will rise once the additional stamp duty is fully priced into the market,’ it adds. Continue reading
