Tag Archives: crisis
Rental growth in prime central London down 3% in year to June 2106
Annual rental value growth in London’s prime property market fell by 3% in June, continuing a decline experienced in recent months that has been driven by higher stock levels and uncertainty in financial markets. The index report from real estate firm Knight Frank relates to before the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, but Tom Bill, head of London residential research said that the current sense of uncertainty following the vote is likely to boost rental demand in the short term. ‘However, any upwards pressure on rents is likely to be countered to some extent by rising stock levels, which will tick up in line with the ongoing uncertainty in the sales market and there is early anecdotal evidence that some vendors are deciding to let their property until more clarity emerges,’ he explained. Bill pointed out that underlying demand remains strong and the number of new prospective tenants that registered in June was the highest it has been since September 2015 and the number of viewings was the third highest on record. Meanwhile, the number of new tenancies agreed in June 2016 was almost identical to the same month in the previous two years. ‘For investors able to see through the current political bout of political uncertainty, there are also grounds for longer term positivity,’ Bill added. The prime gross yield in June was 3.1%, which is markedly in excess of the current record-low yield on a 10 year government bond of about 0.8%, or the so-called risk-free rate and Bill pointed out that a mood of indecision in financial markets is also more accentuated than it was before the Brexit vote, which will also cause some tenants, particularly in financial services, to rent for longer. ‘More broadly, uncertainty over the result of the referendum has been replaced by uncertainty over the more nuanced question of the UK’s relationship with Europe and demand will strengthen further as clarity emerges surrounding key negotiating positions,’ Bill said. He also pointed out that as the Brexit negotiation process unfolds, it should be remembered that no candidate for Prime Minister has indicated any willingness to relinquish London’s role as Europe’s leading financial centre. Indeed, Chancellor George Osborne has signalled he may cut corporation tax in a sign that London will strive to remain competitive versus other European cities, both as the key financial and tech market in the continent. The prospect of an interest rate cut in the UK is also likely to stimulate a degree of activity and the likelihood of further cuts by central banks in other countries, particularly in Asia, will cause global investors to seek the type of higher returns on offer in property, according to Bill. ‘This search for yield will be allied to a favourable currency play due to the current weakness of Sterling. Meanwhile, other fundamentals that remain unchanged after the referendum include the supply shortfall and projected population growth over the next decade in London, factors that will… Continue reading
Decline in farmland values in England slows in second quarter of 2016
English farmland values fell by just 1.7% in the second quarter of 2016 compared with a drop of 3% during the first three months of the year, according to the latest index. The average value of English farmland is now £7,773 an acre, some 6% lower than the record high of £8,306 an acre from last September. But over five years it is up 26%, over 10 years up 160% and over 50 years some 4,763% higher. The Knight Frank Farmland index says this compares strongly with other asset classes and also says that demand remains despite the decision by the UK to leave the European Union. Indeed, the index data was collected after the historic referendum on 23 June. The report points out that in the last decade the top end of the residential market in central London, for example, has increased by 98% over the same period, although a post-Brexit scramble for safe haven assets has seen gold’s 10 year return hit almost 200%. ‘Given that agriculture is the biggest recipient of EU funds via the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) so many UK farming businesses rely on farm subsidies to break even, it might have been expected that the Brexit vote would have had a bigger effect on prices,’ said Andrew Shirley, head of rural research at Knight Frank. ‘However, there are a number of reasons why this hasn’t happened. According to polls, a majority of farmers backed Brexit so the sector will not be unduly pessimistic following the referendum, he explained. ‘The slide in sterling has also had an immediate upward effect on wheat prices and will help livestock exports. Sterling’s loss also makes UK farmland better value for overseas investors. We have already received a number of enquiries from a wide ranging geographic spread of potential buyers attracted by this currency boost and also farmland’s safe haven status,’ he added. Shirley also pointed out that a new round of potential quantitative easing currently being mooted by a number of central banks could accentuate this trend. ‘Prices should remain steady for the rest of the year, but looking further forward it is harder to judge where they will head,’ he said. ‘Much will depend on the outcome of the UK’s trade negotiations with the EU and the rest of the world, as well as how the government decides to replace the CAP. If any of these changes render some farming businesses unsustainable we will likely see more land come to the market,’ he explained. ‘This could put downwards pressure on values, but it will also present opportunities for entrepreneurial businesses and investors, and demand should remain firm,’ he concluded. Continue reading
Research suggests a third of UK tenants sublet without consent
Around a third of private rented sector tenants in the UK say they are currently subletting without the landlord’s consent and four out of 10 tenants plan to do so in the near future, new research has found. The survey from online lettings agents PropertyLetByUs, also shows that the vast majority of tenants, 96%, are subletting the property for short time to help a family member or friend out and 82% claim they are subletting to help pay the rent. Over half of tenants, 52%, say that they planning to sublet their property in the near future, with the landlord’s consent and 78% think they should be able to sublet the property without the landlord’s approval. According to Landlord Action, there is a growing number of instructions from landlords who want to start possession proceedings against tenants who have sublet, via Airbnb, without their consent. Subletting is fast becoming one of the leading grounds for a tenant eviction. According to Jane Morris, managing director of PropertyLetByUs, it is very worrying that so many tenants are subletting without telling their landlords. ‘It is imperative that landlords make regular checks on the property to check for additional occupants. Many tenants will try to hide the fact they are subletting, so the warning signs can be excessive rubbish and accelerated wear and tear,’ she said. ‘When there is multiple occupancy in a property, wear and tear and damage is dramatically accelerated. There can be increased mould and condensation with more occupants. Landlords can also face expensive repairs for damage and redecoration costs, to bring the property up to the standard it was at check-in,’ she pointed out. Morris also pointed out that illegal subletting falls under tenant fraud and renting a property makes landlords vulnerable to fraud. ‘It is vital that landlords and agents carry out thorough pre-letting checks. The purpose of referencing a tenant is threefold; to check the person is who they say they are, that they can afford the rent and that they have honoured past commitments,’ she explained. Last year, the government said it planned to make it easier for tenants to sublet a room by legislating against the use of clauses in private fixed term tenancy agreements that expressly rule out subletting, or otherwise sharing space on a short term basis. However, it has not yet set a date for a consultation on the plans. PropertyLetByUs recommends that landlords make regular checks on their property, ideally every three to six months and when doing so should look out for additional clothing and shoes, excessive rubbish for the number of registered tenants, additional bedding like sleeping bags and pillows, suitcases and rucksacks and extra toothbrushes ‘Before taking on a new tenant, make sure you carry out a thorough reference to ensure you know who your tenant is,’ added Morris. Continue reading
