Tag Archives: countries
Property To Stabilise As Monetary Policy Normalises – UBS
22 August 2013 Property values are set to stabilise in many Eurozone markets this year and next as European monetary policy normalises, resulting in rising financing costs and risk-free rates, says UBS Global Asset Management. Retail should outperform. In its 2H13 Eurozone market outlook, signed by Head of Research Gunnar Herm, UBS said: “In 2013 and 2014, real estate investors will operate in a slightly improving but still subdued economic environment. UBS does not believe the European Central Bank’s monetary easing policy will continue further, which will result in higher risk-free rates and financing costs. debt availability will remain scarce for assets beyond core property. However, additional lending sources for value-add or opportunistic assets will emerge in the core Eurozone countries as well as for the prime segment in southern Europe. The retail sector will outperform office and logistics due to high income levels and stable capital value and rental growth in most markets from 2014. In the countries hit hardest by the financial crisis, stabilisation is expected for 2015. Best performers, on a total return basis, will be France and Ireland, worst Spain, Portugal and The Netherlands. Logistics remains attractive due to the high, relatively stable income returns in the current low interest rate environment. “We anticipate a broadening range of both returns and opportunities in the sector, with growing retail and manufacturing sector interest for new, tailored space in selective locations across Europe,” said the report. Occupiers will focus on regions and countries with a strong economic outlook. UBS sees Ireland and Norway as the most attractive options for a core portfolio over the next three years. In the office sector, cost-cutting continues as the main driver of leasing activity. Due to low development activities, vacancy levels in the prime segment have been falling, resulting in a supply shortage in CBD locations and rising prime rents. Outside the prime segment, UBS expects continued pressure on capital values. France and Finland are set to outperform on a total return basis, while Germany, The Netherlands, Spain and Italy are likely to underperform. “Even though we do not believe in improving occupier market conditions in the Dutch office market, counter-cyclical opportunities may arise in the prime office segment,” said the report. pie Continue reading
Wood Resources International LLC: Steady Increase In Global Trade Of Wood Chips The Past Ten Years; Japan And China Imported 83 Percent Of Traded Hard
SEATTLE, Aug 20, 2013 (BUSINESS WIRE) — The global pulp industry has increased its importation of wood chips the past ten years, reaching the second highest import levels on record in 2012, reports the Wood Resource Quarterly. Japan, China, Finland and Turkey were the largest importing countries last year. Wood chips are one of the few forest products commodities that have seen a steadily increasing trend in globally traded volumes the past decade. With the exception of 2009, when global production of pulp fell by about ten percent and the demand for wood fiber was down, international trade of wood chips has increased every year from 2000 to 2011, as reported in the Wood Resource Quarterly. (www.woodprices.com) From 2009 to 2012, global chip trade increased by 6.5 million tons to just over 31 million tons, valued at over five billion US dollars, slightly below the all-time high reached in 2011. Much of the increase in chip imports has been because of the expansion of MDF production capacity in Turkey and due to major investments in pulp capacity in China. The top ranking of chip-importing countries has changed quite considerably the past five years. Although Japan is still, by far, the largest chip importer in the world, import volumes have declined from a record-high of almost 15 million tons in 2008 to just over 11 million tons in 2012. China, on the other hand, has gone from being a net exporter of chips less than ten years ago to become the second largest importer of wood chips in the world. With the expansion of pulp production capacity in China and the lack of domestic fiber sources, it is likely that China will surpass Japan as the world largest chip importer within 2-3 years. Japan and China are the two dominant consumers of globally traded chips. Their dominance is particularly accentuated for hardwood chips, where they imported 83 percent of the world’s total imports in 2012. Pulp mills in Finland, the third largest chip importer, have for a long time relied on residual chips from Russian sawmills with close proximity to the border and on chips from the Baltic States, as reported in the Wood Resource Quarterly. This trade has increased in recent years. The fourth on the import ranking list for 2012 is Turkey, which has become a major chip destination in just the past few years. It is likely that global trade of wood chips will continue to go up in the coming years for two main reasons because 1) there are limited forest resources in some of the countries which are expanding industry capacity and 2) some forest companies are making the strategic decision to diversify their supply sources and import wood chips rather than procure marginal fiber supplies locally. Global pulpwood and timber market reporting is included in the 52-page quarterly publication Wood Resource Quarterly (WRQ). The report, established in 1988 and with subscribers in over 30 countries, tracks sawlog, pulpwood, lumber and pellet prices, trade and market developments in most key regions around the world. To subscribe to the WRQ, please go to www.woodprices.com Wood Resources International LLC (WRI), an internationally recognized forest industry-consulting firm established in 1987, publishes two quarterly timber price reports and have subscribers in over 30 countries. The Wood Resource Quarterly, established in 1988, is a 52-page market report and includes sawlog prices, pulpwood and wood chip price and market commentary to developments in global timber, biomass and forest industry. The other report, the North American Wood Fiber Review, tracks prices of sawlogs, pulpwood, wood chips and biomass in most regions of Canada and the US. This information was brought to you by Cision http://news.cision.com SOURCE: Wood Resources International LLC Continue reading
Should We Be Looking At The Latin American Property Market?
by MARK BENSON on AUGUST 18, 2013 Should we be looking at the Latin American property market? For many years the Latin American economy was seen as something of a basket case with the likes of Brazil, Argentina and an array of other economies struggling to survive. Indeed just prior to the turn-of-the-century Brazil was on the verge of collapse and required an IMF emergency loan to survive although incidentally this loan was repaid early as the Brazilian economy bounced quicker than many had expected. There is therefore an interesting opportunity in Latin America where property is now in great demand especially amongst the growing middle classes. If you take a look at Latin America through clear glasses with no stigma and no predetermined views, the economy in the region is exceptionally strong compared to the likes of Europe, the Far East and North America. Indeed while economic growth was recently downgraded slightly by HSBC it is still far and away above that expected in other areas of the world. So, should we be looking towards Latin America for property investment? The growing middle classes It is interesting to see that countries such as Brazil and Mexico tend to grab the lion’s share of the economic headlines relating to Latin America. While there is no doubt these two particular economies are very influential it is worth noting that Costa Rica, for one, is attracting more than its fair share of interest with a recent $10 million partnership announced to develop a range of middle income residential units. Quote from PropertyForum.com : “Can a foreigner own property in Costa Rica? The answer to the question is Yes. Anybody can own property in Costa Rica. You have the same right as a Costa Rican!” The investment by Paladin Realty Partners is just one of many in the region which have caught the eye of international investors. Indeed this particular investor now has exposure to 3 similar joint ventures to build in excess of 1700 housing units. These particular developments are focused upon the growing middle class of Costa Rica and the fact they now have more disposable income than ever before due to ongoing economic growth. Long-term economic growth Historically inflation has eaten away at much of the long-term economic growth we have seen in Latin America although inflation is now under control, the vast majority of economies are far outperforming their North American, European Far East and counterparts and the financial situation is more stable than it ever has been. If we also take a look at the political arena we will see that while there have been instances of unrest, most notably in Brazil over the last few weeks, on the whole the political situation across Latin America has improved. While it will be foolish to suggest that the political arena could not suddenly become more volatile the fact is that with overseas investment at record levels, unemployment falling and more disposable income for many in the region, there would be no benefit in rocking the economic boat. Conclusion Very often we tend to focus upon North America, Europe and the Far East with regards to long-term property investments when in fact the situation in Latin America certainly demands some attention. The region we see today is very different to that of 20 years ago and while often seen as something of a “financial basket case” in years gone by, we are now in a whole new era. You will still need to be selective about the countries, the areas and the type of properties you consider, many experts believe that this region of the world is set for sustained economic growth for some time to come. Continue reading
