Tag Archives: countries
Signs that currency volatility could boost UK market, especially in London
Currency volatility sparked by the decision in the UK to leave the European Union could create a scenario where overseas investors make major profits by continuing to invest and store their wealth in prime property in London, it is suggested. Market conditions are ripe for opportunistic foreign investors, which could create a welcome increase in the level of sales enquiries received by London developers and give a lift to the British property sector, according to a report from Arcadis. Since the result of the EU referendum was announced, sterling has fallen relative to the euro and the US dollar with further falls forecast before the end of the year. The report suggests that buyers from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are now well placed to secure bargains in the London prime housing market by exploiting both a softening of property values and a favourable currency situation. Furthermore, with some Banks forecasting a recovery of sterling during 2017 and agents predicting some recovery of prime London house prices during 2018, those investing £2 million now may see their investments rise by as much as £250,000 in value, according to Mark Cleverly, head of commercial development at Arcadis. Although the appetite for opportunistic investment will depend on forecasts of further depreciation of sterling in the short term, the London prime market could soon see another influx of foreign investment. This would provide a timely boost for the UK construction sector in the long term, particularly if increased competitiveness is also matched by government funding for infrastructure, helping to underpin confidence in the new build sector. ‘The market volatility we’ve seen as a result of the Brexit vote is, perhaps ironically, going to re-open the luxury property market to overseas investors, as several of our clients have already reported a bounce in enquiries following the referendum. This influx of investment coming into the UK could boost British construction again in the future as well as giving shot in the arm to the Treasury through increasing stamp duty receipts,’ Cleverly explained. ‘For a market that, in some areas, has been stuttering for some time due to ongoing stamp duty hikes taking the steam out of buyer demand, the buying opportunity presented by recent events could be a big plus. More buyers means a more buoyant market which can only be good news for the industry,’ he added. Already there has been a surge in interest from overseas buyers, according to Benoit Properties International due to the plunge in the value of sterling. The firm says buyers could make a saving of around 12%. Matthew Lavin of Benoit Properties International said there has been a surge in interest in buy to let property from investors in the Middle East, Hong Kong and other countries with currencies pegged to the dollar. Within days of the referendum result the firm sold… Continue reading
Investment in European commercial property up 18% year on year in Q3
The level of investment into European commercial real estate continues to grow with €62 billion invested in the third quarter of 2015, up 18% on the same period in 2014. France experienced the most noteworthy increase with investment activity of over €7 billion, almost double that of the same quarter in 2014, according to figures from CBRE. French investment activity was dominated by domestic investors who accounted for more than 70% of CRE investment in the third quarter, and who typically favoured large offices located in the Paris CBD. Whilst France benefitted from the biggest change in investor sentiment, it was Germany which saw the greatest increase in absolute terms, with quarter three investment of €14 billion, up €5.6 billion on the same quarter last year. The report points out that the €36 billion already invested in German commercial real estate in the first three quarters of this year is 40% higher than the equivalent period in 2014. Alongside France and Germany, several other countries experienced a strong third quarter. Norway and Sweden saw investment volumes grow by 139% and 68% respectively on the third quarter of 2014. Southern Europe also performed well, with Portugal and Italy benefitting from a slight shift in investor focus away from the Spanish market. Belgium attracted near record levels of investment in the third quarter, boosted by several large retail transactions. In Central and Eastern Europe, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary saw the most investment activity. At a city level, the most notable aspect was the move of the Nordics up the table of Europe’s largest CRE investment markets with Oslo, Copenhagen and Stockholm making the top 10. Typically these Nordic capitals have very high levels of domestic investment, around 70%, with cross-border European investment accounting for around 25% and just 5% of capital coming from outside of Europe. However in the third quarter foreign investment accounted for more than half the total in both Oslo and Copenhagen. London and Paris continue to fill the top two spots in the league table, but interestingly all five of the main German markets make it into the quarter’s top ten for the first time since the first quarter of 2013. ‘We have seen good growth across the European commercial real estate investment market in the last quarter. With high levels of transactions expected in the fourth quarter, this current trend is set to continue and we believe we will see a strong year end in terms of investment volumes,’ said Jonathan Hull, managing director, EMEA Capital Markets at CBRE. ‘Retail recorded the strongest levels of investment growth this quarter up 45% on the third quarter of 2014, the second highest level we have seen in 10 years of data. The office sector also performed well across the region, underscored by some significant transactions in France, the UK, Norway… Continue reading
Global property prices up 4.7% year on year led by Hong Kong, latest data shows
Global house prices have increased by a median of 4.7% year on year led by Hong Kong, Turkey, Ireland, Sweden and Australia, a new international report shows. Overall prices have increased in 21 of the 26 countries tracked by the Economist House Price Index but growth does vary from nation to nation. The growth is topped by Hong Kong with annual price growth of 20.8%, followed by Turkey with a rise of 18,8%, Ireland up 13.4%, Sweden up 10.3% and Australia up 7.5%. At the bottom end of the index the country with the biggest annual drop in property prices is Greece with a fall of 5.9%, Singapore down 3.7%, Italy down 3.3%, China down 2.4% and France down 2.3%. All other countries has seen annual price growth according to the index which measures national affordability by comparing prices to the long run average of their relationship with rents and income. In Hong Kong prices have now doubled in five years despite seven separate round of cooling measures being introduced but with little effect. The latest, in March this year, reduced the average loan to value ratio for new mortgages from 64% to just 52%. But the index report suggests that in practice it is China’s recent stock market crash is likely to be a bigger dampener on demand as mainland investors put off new purchases. Meanwhile, China’s own housing market, it is one of only five in the index where prices are falling, but the report points out that prices are falling at a slower rate than before. The government has been trying to boost the market over the past 10 months, cutting interest rates by 1.4% and relaxing rules on down payments. Prices are now rising on a monthly basis in many cities including Beijing and Shanghai. The report points out that in the United States annual growth of 4.7% shows the real estate market is well into recovery. Some cities are seeing strong growth such as San Francisco with prices up by 10% in the year to July and up by 75% since 2009. Other countries’ housing markets are already well above fair value and the report reckons that houses are more than 30% overvalued in six markets, including Canada and Australia, with the UK the most supply constrained of this group where demand is outstripping the number of properties coming to the market. It points out that in the UK although prices have risen by 35% since their trough in January 2009, house building is failing to respond. Just 140,000 homes were completed in the year to March 2014, some 25% below the long term norm. Continue reading
