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Prime London property market still adjusting to tax changes

Prices of prime London residential properties fell marginally in the first quarter of 2016, as uncertainty regarding the global and domestic economic outlook continued, says a new analysis. Overall values across the whole of the prime property market in London fell by an average of 0.3% in the three months to the end of March, according to the report from real estate firm Savills. But there continues to be a distinction between the higher value, discretionary prime central London markets and the more domestic, needs-based outer prime London locations. In the most expensive markets of prime central London prices fell by 0.8% in the first quarter. This leaves values at the very top end of the market some 6.7% below their 2014 peak, when an adjustment was triggered by the Chancellor’s announcement of new stamp duty rates for higher value properties in his autumn statement. By contrast, in the less expensive and more domestic outer prime London housing markets, which run from Richmond and Wimbledon, though Battersea and Wandsworth in the south and west, and Islington, Wapping and Canary Wharf in the north and east, prices remained flat in the first quarter of the year, having risen between 2.6% and 4.2% over the past 12 months. The report points out that it is notable that price growth across all prime London markets has been slower than the mainstream over the past three years. It says that this is because the lower value outer London markets were slower to recover post downturn, have benefited from stamp duty reform and remain more accessibly priced. ‘Unlike other parts of the London housing market, the prime markets remain fairly price sensitive and increasingly dominated by needs based buyers,’ said Lucian Cook, Savills head of UK residential research. “’he recent Budget statement confirmed that the stamp duty take form the top end of the market has risen following the reforms of December 2014, despite lower transactional activity, effectively signalling that this policy is here to stay and will continue to influence buying and selling decisions and assessment of value,’ he explained. ‘Given historic levels of price growth, the increased tax burden and political uncertainty stemming from the pending mayoral election and EU referendum, our view is that we are unlikely see any price growth over the course of 2016 as the market continues its adjustment,’ he added. Continue reading

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Pending home sales in the United States up solidly in February

Pending home sales in the United States rose solidly in February to their highest level in seven months and remain higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Led by a sizeable increase in the Midwest, all major regions except for the Northeast saw an increase in contract activity in February, the date from the forward looking index based on contract signings show. Overall the index rose 3.5% to 109.1 in February from a downwardly revised 105.4 in January and is now 0.7% above February 2015. Although the index has now increased year on year for 18 consecutive months, last month's annual gain was the smallest. ‘After some volatility this winter, the latest data is encouraging in that a decent number of buyers signed contracts last month, lured by mortgage rates dipping to their lowest levels in nearly a year1 and a modest, seasonal uptick in inventory,’ said Lawrence Yun, NAR economist. ‘Looking ahead, the key for sustained momentum and more sales than last spring is a continuous stream of new listings quickly replacing what's being scooped up by a growing pool of buyers. Without adequate supply, sales will likely plateau,’ he added. According to Yun, the one silver lining from last month's noticeable slump in existing home sales was that price appreciation lessened to 4.4% which is still above wage growth but certainly more favourable than the 8.1% annual increase in January. ‘Any further moderation in prices would be a welcome development this spring. Particularly in the West, where it appears a segment of would be buyers are becoming wary of high asking prices and stiff competition,’ Yun pointed out. Existing homes sales this year are forecast to be around 5.38 million, an increase of 2.4% from 2015. The national median existing home price for all of this year is expected to increase between 4% and 5%. In 2015, existing home sales increased 6.3% and prices rose 6.8%. A breakdown of the figures show that the index in the Northeast declined 0.2% to 94 in February but is still 12.6% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index shot up 11.4% to 112.6 in February and is now 2.5% above February 2015. Pending home sales in the South increased 2.1% to an index of 122.4 in February but are 0.4% lower than last February. The index in the West climbed 0.7% in February to 96.4, but is now 6.2% below a year ago. Continue reading

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Property prices in England and Wales down slightly month on month

Residential property prices in England and Wales increased by 6.1% in the year to February 2016 taking the average value to £190,275. The latest data from the Land Registry also shows that overall month on month prices fell by 0.2% but most regions have seen prices rise. London has seen the greatest increase in average property values over the last 12 months with a rise of 13.5% to £530,368 but at the opposite end the North East saw prices fall by 3.2% year on year. The North East also saw the most significant monthly price fall with a decrease of 1.2% the North West saw the greatest monthly price rise with a rise of 1.8%. According to David Brown, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, the monthly dip in property prices disguises the fact that the majority of regions are experiencing striking growth. ‘There have been a lot of stimulants spurring on the housing market this spring To beat the 01 April implementation of additional stamp duty, second home buyers and buy to let investors have been frantically pushing through purchase completions as quickly as possible,’ he pointed out. ‘We’ve had documents collected and delivered by hand across London to solicitors to avoid postal delays, and our teams have been in at the crack of dawn to make sure all parties involved in the transaction are meeting their deadlines,’ he explained. ‘This short term whirlwind should go some way to balance out the slower sales activity seen at the end of last year, but only time will tell how buy to let demand tapers off as we enter into new territory. As buy to let investors face yet another blow from the banks, the incredibly strong buyer demand we’re seeing will take the reins, and keep the market on a stable course,’ he added. Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, pointed out that price rises in London are more than double the rate compared to all other regions excluding the South East and the East. ‘High demand, a shortage in supply and out of reach properties in prime central London, has seen potential buyers flocking to outer London boroughs for more affordable housing and in turn that’s pushed prices ever skyward. Six of the outer boroughs have experienced annual price rises of more than 15% with Hillingdon top of the league at 17.1%,’ he said. ‘Again the upward trends continue west of the capital along the M4 corridor with Slough notching up a 19% annual increase. There’s a widening gulf with the rest of England and particularly Wales with the average house at a fifth of the price you pay in London. And sadly, we’re likely to see downward pressure on prices in south Wales over increasing uncertainty around Steel jobs in Port Talbot,’ he added. Continue reading

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