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Global business putting investment in UK commercial property on hold due to Brexit concerns
International businesses are postponing investment in the UK in the wake of uncertainty about the country’s membership of the European Union ahead of a referendum in June. The latest UK Commercial Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) indicates that demand for UK commercial property among international investors has stalled. It says that short term uncertainty has contributed particularly to falling international investment demand in central London and rental and capital value projections have been scaled back since the announcement last year that a referendum would be held. On top of this only 6% of the RICS survey respondents believe that Brexit, the term given to a UK decision to leave, will have positive impact on the country’s commercial property sector The demand indicator among international investors for UK commercial property is now at its lowest level since RICS records began in 2014 with just 5% of members surveyed reporting increased interest from overseas companies over the last three months. This is a considerable drop from 36% in the second quarter of 2015 Uncertainty caused by the EU referendum has been cited by 38% of RICS members working within the sector as the reason why major international retailers and other businesses have been nervous of investing in Britain. Should Britain leave the EU, some 43% of respondents feel that it would have a negative impact on the commercial property sector and only 6% said a Brexit scenario would have a positive impact on the commercial property sector. RICS says that some international firms are drawing up contingency plans to shift their headquarters in the event of Brexit. Overseas firms based in the UK occupy large swathes of real estate, and their departure could harm office occupancy rates, and the local economy. Likely beneficiaries of a Brexit are Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin, although the report said London was likely to remain a magnet for investment. The report points out that while investment rates have eased, they are not frozen. ‘There is no doubt that since the EU referendum became a certainty following the general election last May we have seen a decline in interest from overseas investors in UK commercial property,’ said RICS chief economist Simon Rubinsohn. ‘At least in the short term, we know that international retailer and service providers are finding the UK market less attractive,’ he added. The report also suggested that British farmers, many of which rely on payments from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy to pay their rents, would take a big hit if the UK leaves the EU. The RICS EU Referendum Paper shows that a range of key industries from residential housing to construction and rural have been hit by short term uncertainty. However, across the board, in the longer term steady growth is still predicted across rural, land and built environment sectors. It suggests that in the event of Brexit, farmers will most likely lose access to the EU single market and CAP. The question… Continue reading
Property prices dip in England and Wales after mad March buy to let rush
Property prices in England and Wales fell by 0.5% in March, taking the average price of a house to £189,901, the latest land registry figures show. This takes annual house price growth to 6.7% but prices vary according to location with London and the East of England the only two regions with month on month growth. In London property prices increased by 0.2% month on month and by 13.9% year on year, taking the average price to £534,785. In the East of England price were also up 0.2% month on month, taking annual growth to 10.7% and average value to £220,989. Everywhere else in England and Wales prices fell month on month with the steepest fall of 2.6% in Yorkshire and Humber, followed by a fall of 2% in the West Midlands. Prices fell by 1.2% in the North East, by 0.9% in Wales and the South West, by 0.4% in the South East, by 0.3% in the East Midlands and by 0.1% in the North West. Year on year prices were up everywhere apart from the North East where annual growth was down by 0.7% to £97,581. Prices were up 10.3% in the South East, by 5.8% in the South West, by 5.7% in the East Midlands, by 5.3% in the North West, by 3.5% in Wales, by 3.1% in the West Midlands, and 1.6% in Yorkshire and Humber. Experts point out that the fall in prices should not be a surprise after a mad rush in March as buy to let landlords and second home buyers sought to beat the introduction of a 3% stamp duty surcharge on additional homes that came into force on 01 April. David Brown, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, believes that there is still a lot of energy in the first time buyer market for other owner occupiers unaffected by the stamp duty chance. ‘This should step up to fill any momentary fall back in investor demand, and keep prices on course. In London, there are 14 buyers competing for every available property on the market, which will keep the wheels of growth moving,’ he added. According to Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS, the monthly dip will cause hopeful home buyers to breathe a sigh of relief that house prices have not stretched further out of reach. ‘But year on year, a 6.7% rise across England and Wales is cause for concern. In London particularly, where house prices rose 13.9% annually to exceed an average value of £534,000, homeownership is fast become possible for only the very wealthy,’ he said. ‘Despite government intervention to aid first time buyers, such as Help to Buy, Starter Homes and the Lifetime ISA, these schemes fall short of making property more affordable for millions,’ he pointed out and added that uncertainty over the referendum in June on the future of the UK in the European Union could have an effect. But he does not think… Continue reading
Sales up strongly in Scotland but prices down 8.4% year on year
Residential property sales in Scotland increased by 18.2% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period a year ago, the latest official data shows. The figures from the Registers of Scotland also show that prices are down by 8.4% compared to the previous year, bringing the average price to £159,198. A total of 19,802 properties changed hands between January and March, the highest volume of sales for these months since 2007/2008 and the total value of sales across Scotland increased by 8.3% compared to the previous year to just over £3.15 billion. ‘We've seen a sustained increase in the volume of sales throughout the 2015/2016 financial year,’ said Registers of Scotland director of commercial services, Kenny Crawford. ‘This time last year, we saw a spike in house prices, with an increase in the number of high value property sales. By comparison, this year has seen an increase in the volume of lower value properties being sold, which may account for this year's lower average price. Future sales statistics will determine whether this is a one-off decrease, or whether this is a trend that will continue,’ he added. The city of Edinburgh was the largest market, with sales of over £554.6 million for the quarter, up 3.3 while Midlothian recorded the highest increase in value, with sales of over £63 million, an increase of 56.5% compared with the same quarter last year. Aberdeen City showed the largest decrease in market value, down 22.7% to £162.7 million. The highest percentage rise in the volume of sales was in Midlothian, with an annual increase of 48% and Edinburgh recorded the highest volume with growth of 22.4% compared to the same quarter the previous year. The largest percentage fall in volume of sales was in East Renfrewshire, down 14.5%. East Renfrewshire also recorded the highest average property price at £222,303 but this was down 7.9% on last year. The largest percentage rise was seen in North Lanarkshire, where the average property price rose 6.6% to £116,738. The highest percentage fall was recorded in East Lothian, with an average price of £207,276, a fall of 16.5% on last year. All property types showed an increase in sales volumes, with flats showing the biggest increase at 24.2%. They also all showed a decrease in average price this quarter, with detached properties showing the biggest decrease, down 11.6% to £236,249. Semi-detached, terraced, and flatted properties showed price decreases of 8.5%, 10.5% and 7.4% respectively. According to Michelle Grant, investment director at Grant Property, the increase in volume sales reflects what the firm is seeing on the ground. ‘Our buyers are experiencing high levels of competition when trying to secure prime city centre properties on behalf of investors,’ she said. ‘In Glasgow we are bidding against on average eight people for each property and in Edinburgh it can be as high as 20. We have also recently seen properties selling for as much as 15% over… Continue reading
