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UK house prices crept up in May but annual growth slowed, says latest index
House prices in the UK edged up 0.2% in May but annual growth slowed to 4.7% to an average of £204,368, according to the latest index to be published. The annual pace of house price growth remains in the fairly narrow range between 3% and 5% that has been prevailing for much of the past 12 months, according to the date from the Nationwide, one of the leading home lenders in the UK. ‘In the near term, it’s going to be difficult to gauge the underlying strength of activity in the housing market due to the volatility generated by the stamp duty changes which took effect from 01 April,’ said Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist. ‘Indeed, the number of residential property transactions surged to an all-time high in March, some 11% higher than the pre-crisis peak as buyers of second homes sought to avoid the additional tax liabilities,’ he pointed out. ‘While cash purchases accounted for a significant proportion of the increase in activity it is not possible to determine whether or not these were purchased by landlords. Mortgage data suggests that, while buy to let purchases were a major driver of the increase, the purchase of second homes also accounted for a substantial proportion,’ he explained. The report also shows that the number of home mover mortgages, which is where second home purchases with a mortgage would show up, increased sharply in March. Gardner said that house purchase activity is likely to fall in the months ahead given the number of purchasers that brought forward transactions. ‘The recovery thereafter may also be fairly gradual, especially in the buy to let sector, where other policy changes, such as the reduction in tax relief for landlords from 2017, are likely to exert an ongoing drag,’ he added. But he also pointed out that healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs are expected to underpin a steady increase in housing market activity once stamp duty related volatility has passed, providing the economic recovery remains on track. ‘However, it is possible that the recent pattern of strong employment growth, rising real earnings, low borrowing costs and constrained supply will tilt the demand/supply balance in favour of sellers and exert upward pressure on price growth once again in the quarters ahead,’ he said. He added that according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the number of properties on estate agents’ books was already close to all-time lows on data extending back to the late 1970s. According to Matt Andrews, managing director of Bluestone Mortgages, consumer confidence is still rising, so with more people looking to secure lending it is important to see some innovation come into the sector to help more people get onto the housing ladder. ‘In order to help those who currently struggle to gain access to lending, such as people who have experienced a genuine blip on their credit scores, or who only have limited trading histories, we need to offer a more… Continue reading
Rental supply in the UK continues to fall, latest analysis report shows
The supply of residential rental properties in the UK has continued to fall but this comes at a time when rental costs are expected to rise. Overall the number of rental properties managed per lettings agents branch increased by 8% in April to the highest level this year but is down from April 2015, according to the data from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents (ARLA). The jump from March this year follows a rush from buy to let landlords pushing to complete sales ahead of the April stamp duty increase deadline, the ARLA report says. But supply still stands at 5% lower than in April last year and continues to fall year on year. In April 2015, the average number of properties managed per branch was 193, this year it stands at 183. Demand is also falling year on year: In April, the number of prospective tenants per branch was 34, down from 33 the previous month and down from 36 April of last year. Meanwhile, rent costs expected to rise following buy to let stamp duty rise. Some 66% of ARLA agents predicted that the stamp duty reforms will push rent costs up for tenants down the line. ARLA agents also reported an increase in the number of landlords selling their buy to let properties. An average of four, up from three in March, are pulling out of the market, showing an increase for the first time in a year. ‘It’s likely that this increase in supply is only temporary. At the end of April we saw a flurry of landlords seizing the last few moments before the stamp duty rise to complete sales, triggering an increase in the supply of empty rental homes to be filled this month,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘However, we expect that fewer investors will be taking on buy to let properties over the next six months, following the price hikes, meaning that once these properties are filled we’ll see supply nose dive once again,’ he added. Continue reading
Prices rise in Dublin but fall elsewhere in Ireland
Residential property prices in Ireland increased overall by 7.1% in the 12 months to April 2016 and were up by 0.3% month on month, the latest official figures show. This compares with no change in March and an increase of 0.6% recorded in April of last year, according to the data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), and the market is still open to some volatility with prices rising in Dublin but falling elsewhere. In Dublin residential property prices increased by 1.6% in April and were 4.6% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices increased by 1.9% in the month and were 5% higher compared to a year earlier. The data also shows that Dublin apartment prices were 1.1% higher when compared with the same month of 2015. However, a CSO spokesman said it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. The price of residential properties in the rest of Ireland decreased by 0.6% in April compared with an increase of 0.3% in April of last year. Prices were 9.5% higher than in April 2015. It means that house prices in Dublin are 33.1% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 while apartments in Dublin are 41.5% lower than they were in February 2007 while overall prices in Dublin are 35.2% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The price of residential properties in the rest of Ireland is 35.8% lower than their highest level in September 2007. Overall, the national index is 33.3% lower than its highest level in 2007. John McCartney, director of research at Savills, pointed out that price growth in Dublin has accelerated steadily over the first four months of the year, as predicted by the firm. ‘Price growth slowed in Dublin last year as tighter mortgage lending forced people into renting. However, this slowdown was always going to be temporary. The shift to renting has forced up rents, attracting investors who are now scrapping to buy properties and driving up prices. As this continues the Dublin market may become increasingly like London with expensive properties, many of which are owned by investors,’ he explained. He said that with tighter mortgage lending introduced in February 2015, many people were priced out of the Dublin market and bought properties in Wicklow, Meath and Kildare. This drove strong price increases in those counties last year, but he added that this has diminished their attractiveness, and increasingly, families are weighing up the cost savings against the longer commute and choosing to stay renting until they can assemble the deposit to buy in Dublin. Looking ahead, Savills says Dublin house price inflation will heat-up further in the coming months. ‘The only thing preventing stronger inflation in today’s figures was the strong growth recorded 12 months ago. However, prices slowed sharply from last May, meaning that next… Continue reading
