Tag Archives: city
Capital city property prices up just 0.5% in June with five seeing values fall
There was a 0.5% rise in capital city dwelling values in June with Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart recording another substantial rise but five cities recorded falls. Higher dwelling values across Australia’s two largest capital cities continued to push the CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index to new record highs, with dwelling values across the combined capital cities rising by 0.5% in June to be 8.3% higher over the past 12 months. The June results continued to show a rebound in housing market conditions after CoreLogic reported weaker results for the final quarter of 2015 when the combined capitals’ index was down 1.4%. However, the pace of capital gains in June was substantially lower than the April and May results when CoreLogic reported a 1.7%, and 1.6% month on month lift in capital city dwelling values. ‘The monthly growth rate reduction is likely to be very much welcomed by state and federal government policy makers and regulators who may be concerned about a sustained rebound in capital gains,’ said CoreLogic Asia Pacific research director Tim Lawless. He pointed out that home values in Sydney have been rising for four years, and have increased by a cumulative 59% over this time frame. Melbourne dwelling values have been rising for the same length of time and have moved 41% higher over the growth cycle to date. The combined capitals’ headline result was driven by a strong 1.2% rise in Sydney dwelling values, and a 0.8% gain across Melbourne’s housing market. Hobart values also showed strong conditions with dwelling values moving 1.8% higher over the month. A breakdown of the figure shows that in Sydney prices increases 1.2% month on month, 6.8% quarter on quarter and 11.3% year on year to a median price of $780,000 while in Melbourne they increased by 0.8%, 3.5% and 11.5% to $587,500. In Hobart growth was 1.8%, 1.9% and 6.2% to a median price of $341,500. In Brisbane prices fell 0.1% month on month but were still up 2.2% quarter on quarter and 5.3% year on year to a median price of $475,000 while in Adelaide they fell 1.3% month on month but were up 0.8% quarter on quarter and 2.2% year on year to $420,000. In Perth prices have fallen across the board, down 0.8% month on month, down 3% quarter on quarter and down 4.7% year on year to $505,000 with a similar story in Darwin with a month on month fall of 1.6% a quarter on quarter fall of 2.5% and a year on year fall of 1.1% to a median price of $510,000. Canberra is seeing prices fall for the first time in over a year. Values were down 1.1% month on month but still up 2.6% quarter on quarter and 3.9% year on year to a median price of $560,000. ‘While the higher rates of capital gains in Sydney and Melbourne can be tied back to strong economic conditions, and high rates of population… Continue reading
Easier monetary policy could weaken Brexit effect on UK real estate
The hit to UK real estate sentiment that many experts predict will be sparked by the vote to leave the European Union may be limited by easier monetary policy, it is claimed. While uncertainty in the run up to the referendum had little effect on domestic real estate pricing this year, investment activity slowed but an analysis report suggests that this hasn’t been exclusively caused by Brexit fears but largely reflects greater investor caution as the market reaches the top of the cycle. However, according to Chris Unwin, head of global research at Aviva Investors, the vote to leave suggests there is now little hope of any bounce in sentiment. ‘Indeed, it may be many years until we have clarity on the UK’s constitutional arrangements and trading agreements,’ he said. He pointed out that the financial markets’ reaction to the vote was swift and dramatic with Sterling falling to its lowest against the US dollar in over 30 years and 10 year gilt yields reaching a record low. And, as equities plunged, real estate shares were particularly badly hit. He believes that mounting fears of an economic shock and in the short term, uncertainty as to the UK’s constitutional arrangements and trading agreements, will dampen activity and may trigger a recession by the end of 2016. In the longer term, the economy is likely to be impaired by reduced access to European markets and poorer demographics, weakening the UK’s fiscal position and potentially damaging productivity growth. On top of this calls for a second referendum on an independent Scotland will grow and great further uncertainty. ‘Domestic capital values now look likely to decline moderately over the remainder of the year. It is worth noting, however, that some commentators believe Brexit will hit real estate returns, and the economy, more severely. By contrast, we had expected to see a slight increase in capital values over coming months had the UK voted for the status quo,’ explained Unwin. He expects to see prolonged illiquidity in real estate markets pending renegotiation of international agreements and transaction activity to be low while heightened risk aversion will reflect lower growth expectations and political risk. ‘To compensate, some widening in yields is probable. Secondary assets are likely to be hit even more,’ he added. However, Sterling depreciation could support demand from overseas investors but Unwin pointed out that this needs to be balanced against the UK real estate market’s diminished ‘safe haven’ status along with additional caution in Scotland resulting from pressure for a further independence referendum. Unwin thinks UK occupier markets could be affected significantly less than investment markets. ‘In the short term, a rapid deterioration in the labour market is not expected. Demand for space is not set to fall rapidly,’ he said. ‘If the weakness of sterling is maintained, UK retailers could be hit, particularly those operating on low margins. On the other hand, it may boost prospects for markets dependent on tourist spending, like prime central… Continue reading
Residential property price growth in Australian capital cities slowing
The pace of growth in residential property prices across Australia’s eight capital cities is slowing amid signs that sales momentum is waning, the latest data shows. In the March quarter of 2016 prices were 6.8% than 12 months previously, according to the figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But this was slower than throughout 2015 when growth averaged 9% per annum. ‘This deceleration is largely being driven by developments in the Sydney residential property market, where annual price growth eased back into single figure territory in March this year. Sydney prices grew at an annual rate of 9.7%, beating the national average, but are also the city’s slowest pace of growth in almost three years,’ said Diwa Hopkins, Housing Industry Association economist. ‘This deceleration in price growth has occurred against a backdrop of waning momentum in property transfers, particularly amongst non-detached housing. The volume of attached dwelling transfers across Australia grew strongly in 2013 and 2014. The volume of transfers was virtually unchanged in 2015 and signs of a pullback in 2016 are now emerging,’ she explained. A breakdown of the figures shows that price growth remained strongest in Melbourne with an increase of 9.8%, followed by Sydney up 9.7%, then Canberra up 4.6, Hobart up 4.2%, Brisbane up 4.1% and Adelaide up 3.1%. In other capital cities prices growth has fallen, led by Darwin with a fall of 4.9% and in Perth prices fell by 4.5% in the year to the March 2016 quarter. Meanwhile, the HIA’s latest bi-annual Housing Scorecard shows that there were over 220,000 dwellings commenced in Australia during 2015, a new annual record. However, there were significant divergences in conditions for residential building around the country. The eastern seaboard states have been the strongest performers, the mining states are sliding down the order, while South Australia and Tasmania are facing the most challenging conditions, according to said HIA economist Geordan Murray. The report shows that there is little to separate the top two ranked states, but it is Victoria that has edged out New South Wales to take the top spot. With nearly 70,000 dwellings commenced in 2015, it is not all that surprising that Victoria was number one, but Victoria also ranked as the strongest market for renovations. Western Australia is off the pace of the top two states, but still ranks third. But Murray pointed out that the high ranking for Western Australia belies the challenging conditions emerging for residential building, as evidenced by nearly 18 months of falling home prices. ‘The state’s overall ranking is propped up by strong performances in indicators of residential building that is already underway. The leading indicators highlight the recent deterioration in conditions and the prospect of weaker conditions ahead, which the HIA has been warning of for a considerable time,’ he explained. He also explained that Queensland is not performing as strongly as Victoria and New South Wales, but the housing recovery is being tempered by the… Continue reading
