Tag Archives: city
Steady growth for UK commercial property returns and rental values in June
Commercial property returns and rental values saw steady growth in the UK in June but capital value growth slowed, according to the latest index report. Overall, rents across the UK grew by 0.2% in June, matching the trend for the year to date despite uncertainty in the build up to the EU referendum, according to the latest CBRE Monthly Index. But capital values grew by 0.1% over the month, a drop on 0.2% in May although the 0.6% total returns for the month matched returns seen almost every month of the year to date. In the first half of 2016 as a whole, rental value growth hit 1.1%, trailing the 1.7% seen in the same period of 2015. Capital values grew by 0.6% for the first six months of 2016, some way shy of the 4.1% in the first half of 2015. Total returns were also lower, from 6.7% in the first half of 2015, to 3% in the first half of 2016. The reports says that this lower return partly reflects an increase in stamp duty land tax in March. The retail sector experienced rental growth of 0.1% in June, above trend for the year so far, but capital values, which had been flat in April and May, fell by 0.2%. Total returns in the sector were 0.3%, compared with 0.5% the month before. The industrial sector experienced a strong monthly performance, with rents increasing by 0.4%, equal to its best monthly performance in 2016. The office sector saw rents grow by 0.3% in June, an improvement on the 0.2% of both April and May and in line with trend so far this year, while capital value growth slowed slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%. London offices mirrored this overall trend. Rental values rose by 0.3%, faster than the 0.2% seen in May, and capital value growth slowed from 0.6% in May to 0.5% in June, producing total returns in June of 0.8%. The London office market saw some outliers. Rental values in West End and Midtown offices were flat, down from 0.1% growth in May, while capital value growth also cooled to 0.2% from 0.5% in May. Offices in the City of London also experienced muted growth in the month, with rental growth of 0.2% and capital value growth of 0.1%, down from 0.6% and 0.3% respectively in May. ‘Overall, rents and capital values continued to grow in June, with the industrial sector in particular showing strong growth in a month of significant uncertainty. Clearly, capital value growth has slowed, but occupier demand has remained high across the country, pushing up All Property rental growth as fast as any other month this year,’ said Miles Gibson, head of research at CBRE UK. ‘These figures reflect CBRE valuations carried out in the days immediately following the referendum vote, but July’s monthly index will give a much clearer… Continue reading
Brexit hits asking prices in the UK, latest index shows
Asking prices have fallen in four English regions, London and Scotland with the UK’s decision to leave the European Union being blamed for the change to a 19 month long rise in values. Overall mix-adjusted average asking price dropped 0.2% since June as confidence among sellers was dampened by the outcome of the referendum vote, according to the latest asking price index from Home.co.uk. London prices, which were already looking the most overvalued, have been hit the hardest, falling 1.1% in just one month which equates to around £6,000 less for the average home in the city. The index also shows that the average asking price in the South East has slipped 0.2% during the last month, but the biggest drop outside London was in the North East with a fall of 0.7%. The index report suggests that this fall comes as a serious blow to a region that was just showing the first signs of genuine recovery since the financial crisis of 2007. However, several English regions and Wales are still seeing asking prices rise. The East Midlands rose the most with growth of 0.7% over the last month, followed by the North West and ales both up 0.4%, Yorkshire up 0.3%, the West Midlands up 0.2% and the East of England up 0.1%. ‘As the Brexit vote is only about two weeks old, we may well see these figures turn negative next month. Whilst the key drivers of lack of supply and cheap credit remain, uncertainty brought about by the Brexit vote is undermining the property market,’ said Doug Shephard director of Home.co.uk. ‘Overall, the current mix-adjusted average asking price for England and Wales is now 6.1% higher than it was in July 2015, and we predict this figure will tend towards 0% over the coming months,’ he added. He expects that both consumer and investment decisions are set to be delayed until there is somewhat less uncertainty about future prospects for the UK economy but uncertainty looks set to remain for some time and when it comes to house prices the fallout from Brexit looks set to cut short the price rallies of several regions including preventing a recovery in the North and making the inevitable correction for London and the South East deeper and more painful. The index report also shows that the supply of property has increased in London by 6%, the East of England by 7% and the South East by 4% while the typical time on the market has increased by two days to 82 days over the last month across England and Wales but is still six days less than in July 2015. The total stock of property on the market is also up again but is still 5.2% less than in July last year. ‘In the light of the referendum result, we revise our prediction of 10% growth per annum for these regions down to 2%. The South West also looked set to become… Continue reading
Prime central London prices down 0.2% in June
Average property in the prime central London market fell by 0.2% in June, making it the weakest monthly result since November 2014, according to the latest published data. It means that year on year annual price growth in this sector is down, 0.6%, according to the index report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that the index data for June largely covered the period leading up to the UK’s referendum on the country’s future in the European Union. ‘Weaker price growth, together with rising economic and market uncertainty surrounding the European vote, has prompted vendors to reduce asking prices over recent months,’ he explained. But he pointed out that this more realistic approach has resulted in an uptick in activity, most notably in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result on 24 June. Following the referendum the number of transactions across prime London was 38% higher than the prior week and 29% higher than the final week of May. ‘This positive story has been widely reported, but what has often been missed is the weakness of sales prior to the vote, which has flattered more recent sales data. While the reduction in asking prices has boosted recent activity, it would be wrong to ignore market risks,’ said Bill. ‘An initial reading of post-referendum data on new buyer registrations and viewings reveals both have slipped back slightly compared to the same period a month ago although it is still very early to draw firm conclusions,’ he added. Looking ahead, Bill said that political uncertainty in the UK will undoubtedly weigh on sentiment, and will be likely to last until at least the heads of terms of the new relationship between the UK and the EU are agreed. ‘A reduction in political risk, should allow mitigating factors to kick in and support the London market. A cut in the UK base rate, while unlikely to fully translate into lower mortgage rates, would be a positive for the property market. Similarly, recent and proposed rate cuts in markets like India and China and record low government bond yields make property a more attractive investment by comparison,’ he explained. The index report also shows that the current residential yield in prime central London is 3.1% versus 0.9% on a 10 year UK government bond. Bill also pointed out that the recent weakening of Sterling is having a positive impact on relative affordability for international buyers in the London market. For example, for a Hong Kong buyer effective pricing in prime central London is 21% lower than it was two years ago. ‘Looking at the market by price band, we see a more nuanced story. On a quarterly basis, while the whole market saw prices fall 0.3%, prices for sub-£1 million properties rose on average by 0.4%,’ Bill also said. The data also shows that this outperformance of lower price points within the prime London market is… Continue reading
