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House prices in key cities growing faster than UK as a whole

House prices growth in key cities in the UK was 4.2% higher in the first quarter of this year, the highest for 12 years, the latest index shows. The normal seasonal upturn in demand was boosted by investors rushing to beat the stamp duty deadline in April which saw a 3% rate on buy to let properties and second homes, according to the cities house price index from Hometrack. It suggests that tougher lending criteria and tax changes are likely to push investors into higher yielding, lower priced markets, and city level house price growth is expected to moderate in the second quarter of the year. Overall the annual growth for the 20 city house price index is running at 10.8%, ahead of 8.7% across the UK as a whole, the data also shows. Liverpool recorded the fastest increase in the first quarter of the year but the index report explains that this was due to priced rising off a low base. But it does mean that Liverpool is closing the gap to other major cities such as Manchester and Leeds where house price growth is running at over 7% per annum, the highest year on year growth since 2007. ‘The acceleration in growth in the last quarter has, in part, been down to stronger demand from investors, especially those searching for higher yielding property. Tougher lending criteria for buy to let investors and changes to tax relief on mortgage interest payments are likely to push investors to search for higher yielding property which means more focus of investor demand in lower value cities, with lower buying costs, and further support for house price growth,’ the report says. ‘With the rush to beat the stamp duty deadline now over, the question is how weaker investor demand will impact house price inflation in the second quarter of 2016. This at a time when home buyers start to consider the implications of the European Union referendum for the economy and mortgage rates,’ it points out. ‘We believe house prices will continue to rise but a moderation in investor demand and greater caution in the run up to the EU vote will limit further acceleration in house prices. We expect the rate of house price growth to slow more rapidly in high value, low yielding cities such as London where house prices will be more responsive to weaker investor demand,’ it adds. Continue reading

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House prices in UK cities up 11% year on year, latest index shows

House prices in cities across the UK increased by 11% year on year in February, taking the average value to £234,900, according to the latest index. This was up from 8.1% a year ago and the highest rate of growth for almost 18 months, the Hometrack UK cities house price index shows. The report says that there has been a notable and unseasonal acceleration in house price growth in the last three months across most large regional cities thanks, in part, to a temporary increase in demand from those looking to beat the stamp duty increase for second homes from April onwards. It also explains that increased demand from existing home owners in cities where the economic recovery has been less pronounced is an important underlying theme given that the majority of housing sales 80%, continue be driven by home owners. Some 16 of the 20 cities covered by the index have registered an increase in the annual rate of house price growth increase in the last year. Some regional cities are recording their highest growth rates for over a decade as the recovery in house prices gains momentum. Four cities have seen the rate of growth slow with the greatest slowdown in Aberdeen and a loss of momentum in Belfast where a modest recovery appears to have stalled with house prices still 45% down on their 2007 levels. The data also shows that in Portsmouth and Leeds house prices are rising much faster than earnings at between 8% and 9% per annum and Portsmouth, Nottingham and Birmingham are recording the highest rates of annual house price growth for over 10 years while Leeds and Glasgow have the highest growth rates for over eight years. All these cities have seen a continued pick up in house price growth since 2013 on economic growth, an improving employment outlook, earnings growth and low mortgage rates, the report adds. However, there are no consistent patterns as to the types of property driving higher growth in these five cities. In Portsmouth detached homes are rising at twice the rate of the city which is the same trend, with a lesser degree of magnitude, in Nottingham. In Birmingham the highest growth rate is being recorded for flats at 11.3% against 7% for the city while in Leeds terraced houses with growth of 11% are recording the highest growth compared to the city at 7.8%. The four high growth cities of London, Bristol, Oxford and Cambridge continue to record double digit rates of house price inflation but there are signs that the rate of growth is starting to slow. All these cities recorded a small drop in the headline rate of growth over February as affordability and sentiment factors impact pricing levels A closer analysis of the 46 local authorities that cover the London City area shows the average growth rate in the last quarter is approaching half the rate recorded, on average, over the last 12 months. The report suggests that… Continue reading

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Some urban homes values in the US outpacing traditional suburbs

Homes values in some urban areas in the United States are outpacing the value of homes in the suburbs in most top tier metros, new analysis has found. City life is gaining in popularity and high-end condos are popular in Boston, Washington, D.C., Seattle, and other cities with fast changing downtowns, according to a report from real estate firm Zillow. It points out that homes in the suburbs, a longstanding symbol of the American Dream, have typically been worth more, on average, than homes in urban areas. While that is still true in much of the country such as Nashville, Cincinnati, Ohio, and Richmond in Virginia, elsewhere things are changing. The change is most marked in in Boston, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco where the mean value of urban homes has recently surpassed the mean value of homes in suburban areas. And urban homes are gaining ground in Denver, Phoenix, and Chicago. The shift reflects demographic trends of millennials delaying family life and choosing condos, and shifting preferences, as people seek walkable neighbourhoods with urban amenities, the research suggests. It has vast implications for low income people who have traditionally lived in cities to be near services and employment. Zillow recently found that, in San Francisco and Seattle, high income people are making shorter commutes to downtown, while low income people are traveling much further to get to work in the urban core. Zillow based its analysis of urban and suburban home values on a survey of how people define their own neighbourhoods as either urban, rural, or suburban and then used characteristics of those places to extrapolate the results and define ZIP codes all over the country. By looking at home values within those areas, Zillow could see how home values have fared in each type of place over the years. ‘This trend, in part, reflects home buyers' changing preferences, as they seek amenity-rich, dense and walkable areas that are often closer to their workplace,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘In the future, this lifestyle trend will change some suburbs as we know them, and they'll start to feel more urban as buyers move further from city centres in search of affordable housing in communities that still feel urban,’ she added. Nationally, suburban home values grew 5.9% in 2015, while urban home prices increased by 7.5%. In 1997, urban home values grew at 3.8%, slower than suburban values which grew 4.1% that year. On a per square foot basis, home values for urban areas are way up, indicating that people are willing to pay more for less space to live in the city. In Washington, D.C., for example, urban homes in 1996 cost 6% more per square foot than suburban homes. Today, they cost 41% more per square foot. Continue reading

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