Tag Archives: capital-gains
PwC forecasts marked slowdown in UK housing market but no major crash
The UK should avoid a house price crash or a severe recession despite growth downgrades following the decision to leave the European Union, new research shows. UK growth had already eased from around 3% in 2014 to around 2% before the EU referendum due primarily to slower global growth, but the vote to leave the EU is likely to lead to a significant further slowdown. UK GDP growth is forecast to decelerate to around 1.6% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017 according to PwC’s main scenario in its latest UK Economic Outlook report. Quarter on quarter GDP growth could fall to close to zero in late 2016 and early 2017 in this main scenario, but is then projected to recover gradually later in 2017 as the immediate post referendum shock starts to fade. The UK would avoid recession in this scenario, although the report notes that uncertainties around this central view are significant, with alternative scenarios showing GDP growth in 2017 of anywhere between growth of 1.5% and a fall of 1%. But even this latter relatively pessimistic scenario would not be a severe recession of the kind seen in the early 1980s or in 2008/2009. The main reason for the slowdown is projected to be a decline in business investment, particularly from overseas in areas such as commercial property. Construction companies and capital goods manufacturers could also be relatively exposed to this kind of short term cyclical slowdown, the report says. PwC anticipates a marked slowdown in house price growth, but no major crash. In PwC’s main scenario, UK house price growth is expected to decelerate to around 3% in 2016 and around 1% in 2017. After this initial dip, however, projected house price growth picks up again to around 4% in 2018 and an average of around 5% to 6% per annum in the longer term as persistent supply shortages keep house prices rising faster on average than earnings. PwC estimates that average UK house prices in 2018 could be 8% lower than if the UK had voted to stay in the EU, although this would still leave them 8% higher on average than in 2015. The estimated impact of Brexit varies by region. The report says that average house prices in London could be around £60,000 lower due to Brexit than they would otherwise have been by 2018, in contrast to a reduction of £10,000 in Scotland and just £8,000 in the North East. ‘We think there are four main reasons why the Brexit vote will lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the short term: the deterrence of foreign investment, uncertainty regarding the future of EU nationals living in the UK, a reduction in consumer confidence and turbulence in the banking sector,’ said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC. ‘While these factors will weigh heavily on the market in the short term, we expect a gradual recovery from 2018 onwards as market… Continue reading
Capital city home values up 3.3% in first four months of 2016
Home values in Australian capital cities continued to rise in the first four months of 2016, up 3.3% compared to the same period in 2015, the latest index shows. In April, the pace of capital gains rebounded from the relatively flat numbers recorded in March, with dwelling values increasing by an average of 1.7%, according to the Corelogic April home value index. Across the country, housing market trends remain mixed, however, and CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless noted that the improvement in the rate of capital gains has been ‘broad based’ during 2016 with every capital city except Perth recording a lift in dwelling values over the calendar year to date. ‘The results show value growth moved at a faster pace compared with the final three months of 2015 when capital city dwelling values slid 1.4% lower off the back of weaker market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne,’ he explained. ‘While we’ve seen capital gains moderate substantially after peaking last year in Sydney and Melbourne, dwelling values continue to trend higher, just not as fast,’ he added. The data shows that the annual rate of growth in Sydney peaked at 18.4% in July last year and has since moderated back to slightly less than half the peak rate of growth, at 8.9% over the most recent 12 month period. Melbourne’s housing market continues to show a level of resilience to a slowing trend, however the annual growth rate has fallen from a recent peak of 14.2% to the current annual growth rate of 10.1% but Melbourne was the only capital city to see double digit growth over the past year. Perth and Darwin remain as the only two capital city markets to experience a decline in home values over the past 12 months, with Perth values down 2.1% and Darwin values 3.7% lower. ‘With recent month on month increases in home values in these two cities, the declining trend rate is now levelling. This may be an early sign that these markets are beginning to find their cyclical trough after more than a year of annual declines,’ said Lawless. Over the current growth cycle, which commenced broadly in June 2012, capital city dwelling values have moved 34.4% higher, led by a 52.7% rise in Sydney home values and a 37.1% lift in Melbourne values. Lawless pointed out that this highlights the two tiered nature of Australia’s housing market at present. Brisbane experienced the third highest rate of dwelling value growth over the growth cycle to date and dwelling values in the city are now up 18% and Lawless explained that Australia’s regional markets also exhibited a lift in house values over the year to date. He added that while house values across the non-capital city markets have generally underperformed compared with the capital city regions, regional house values moved 2.4% higher over the first quarter of the year. Continue reading
Analysis of housing data shows Dublin residential market had a see-saw 2015
Last year is generally regarded as having been one of growth for the residential property market in Ireland but a new analysis shows how Dublin experienced a slowdown towards the end of 2015. Overall sales increased by 10% compared to 2014 but a closer examination of the detailed monthly data from real estate firm Savills reveals a very different picture. Year on year growth in housing transactions fell continuously throughout 2015, slipping from a positive 75% in January to an outright decline of 18% in December. The report explains that this reflects two major policy changes which impacted on demand. Firstly, generous Capital Gains Tax (CGT) incentives for investors were removed on 31 December 2014. As this deadline approached investors rushed to complete deals, causing transactions to spike in late 2014 and early 2015 as some deals carried into the New Year. After that, however, investor numbers retreated to a more normalised level. The second important policy change was the introduction of new mortgage lending restrictions by the Central Bank. Following a preliminary announcement in October 2014 buyers rushed to secure old style loan approvals in late 2014 and the opening weeks of 2015. These were deployed in the first half of 2015, boosting sales. ‘However the true impact of the macro-prudential rules began to emerge in the second half of 2015 as some people were priced out by restrictions on how much they could borrow. Indeed, these dynamics can be seen in the regional pattern of transactions growth,’ the report says. Because investors were more focused on Dublin, this market saw the biggest uplift from the impending CGT deadline in late 2014 and early 2015. Subsequently, however, Dublin suffered the largest slowdown in sales as the frontloading of investment deals left a vacuum in 2015. ‘Similarly, because absolute price levels are higher in Dublin, the Central Bank rules are more binding in this location. This caused transactions to slow more sharply in Dublin than elsewhere when the rules impacted later in the year,’ the report adds. The analysis report also shows that the rate of house price growth in Dublin slowed quite dramatically during 2015 from 21.6% in January to just 2.6% by the end of the year. It says that part of this was due to base effects as the average Dublin property is now €87,000 more expensive than at the low point of the market in the fourth quarter of 2012. ‘Therefore the same absolute price increase is now gradually leading to a smaller and smaller percentage change,’ it explains. But part of the slowdown is also attributable to removal of the CGT incentive. ‘As investors had been more focused on Dublin than elsewhere, withdrawal of this tax break created a bigger vacuum in the capital,’ the report points out. But the most important factor has been the Central Bank mortgage rules. The average property in Dublin costs around 54% more than that outside the capital. ‘Without a… Continue reading
