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Sharing The Risks/Costs Of Biomass Crops
Sep. 4, 2013 — Farmers who grow corn and soybeans can take advantage of government price support programs and crop insurance, but similar programs are not available for those who grow biomass crops such as Miscanthus. A University of Illinois study recommends a framework for contracts between growers and biorefineries to help spell out expectations for sustainability practices and designate who will assume the risks and costs associated with these new perennial energy crops. “The current biomass market operates more along the lines of a take-it-or-leave-it contract, but in order to encourage enhanced participation and promote a more sustainable, stable biomass supply, a new kind of contract needs to be created,” said Jody Endres, a U of I professor of energy and environmental law. Endres said that a good contract gives everyone more certainty. “Incomplete contracts are the hazard,” she said. “We need to develop contracts that nail down all of the details and are transparent about who’s taking on the risk and who’s paying for it. If we get these considerations into the contracts, those who finance this new biomass crop industry will have more certainty to invest.” The study identifies considerations that should be included in the framework for a biomass contract, including a control for moral hazard, risk incentive tradeoff, existing agricultural practices, and risk and management tools to make the industry more sustainable financially and environmentally. Endres said that if biorefineries receive money in the form of carbon credits for reducing pollution, incentives for farmers should be included in contracts because they are the ones who are bearing the risks associated with sustainability practices. “Suppose a sustainability contract lists that the default should be integrated pest management rather than application of traditional pesticides,” Endres said. “The farmer takes on some risk to provide a sustainable product, but the biorefinery gets carbon credit for those sustainable practices. This should be worked into the contract — that if the farmer assumes the risk of IPM as opposed to traditional pesticide options, there has to be some sort of up-front payment or incentive in the contract to account for this risk. Due to the power relationships in this industry, the onus is on the biorefinery to be the leader in developing contracts in this new landscape.” The perennial nature of biomass crops also makes developing contracts challenging. “We’re in a unique environment, and traditional agricultural contracting structures just don’t apply,” Endres said. “Crop insurance is not currently available for farmers who grow biomass crops so they take on additional risk. Likewise, landowners see high prices for traditional commodity crops and do not want to be locked into a multi-year contract with a lessee to grow a perennial biomass crop. It’s complicated,” she said. Endres said that although sustainability requirements are important, having an adequate supply of biomass is important as well. “We’re trying to envision a future in which we have a lot of biomass and one way to secure that is to recognize all of the risks and costs, especially when it comes to sustainability practices. It’s unique, and we do not yet have contracts for this aspect of the industry,” she said. A newly forming biomass standards group, in which Endres holds a leadership role, is looking at how the value of sustainability practices can be measured at the watershed, eco-shed, or air-shed level rather than on the scale of individual farms. Endres said that the working group will examine how to ensure that balance is achieved between producers and consumers of biomass, including through contracts. “I’m optimistic that it can be done,” she said. “Growers and refiners right now are concerned with the industry being financially sound. “There’s also a real need for education in both developed and underdeveloped countries about biomass contracting,” Endres said. “We’re trying to shift the paradigm from traditional agriculture to something that’s more sustainable–and that takes knowledge. If we don’t have that knowledge here in the United States and we’re trying to draft contracts in our very developed system, how is this going to be rolled out in say, Africa, or other areas where the use of production contracts are much more rare, especially in the small farm context?” The research was supported by funding from the Energy Biosciences Institute and USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch Project No. ILLU-470-309. Continue reading
Stocks Mixed As Syria Worries Weigh
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78a30882-15dc-11e3-b519-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2e0jj0PQn By Jamie Chisholm Thursday 10:35 BST. Optimism on the global economy is helping nudge many growth-focused assets higher, but the bullishness is contained by worrying over the potential geopolitical fallout of the Syria crisis and some monetary policy uncertainty. Stronger European financials but weaker energy stocks leaves the Stoxx 600 index barely changed after the FTSE Asia-Pacific index rose 0.2 per cent. US index futures point to the S&P 500 on Wall Street opening flat at 1,653. The dollar index is up 0.1 per cent to flirt with one-month highs, while gold is up $1 to $1,392 an ounce. Underpinning investor sentiment is a recent rash of fairly upbeat economic data. Well-received manufacturing and service sector surveys from China and Europe this week have joined with better US figures – such as buoyant car sales in August – to raise hopes of a broadening global recovery. That has lifted industrial commodities of late, and many are mildly firmer again on Thursday, with copper up 0.3 per cent to $3.25 a pound and Brent crude adding 48 cents to $115.39 a barrel. However, oil is also getting support from wariness about the chances of supply disruption should the US attack Syria. The potential for broader political fallout following any such action will be in focus as the G20 meets in Russia, which supports the Damascus government; and fretting over this issue is likely to be suppressing the broader market’s confident tone. China’s vice finance minister has warned that a military strike on Syria would hurt the global economy, and Turkey’s lira, which has been buffeted of late by Syria-linked and emerging market tensions, is 1.3 per cent weaker to trade at a record low of TL2.075 per dollar. Also causing some reticence is possible monetary policy “headline risk”. The session sees strategy announcements from the central banks of Japan, Sweden, the UK and the eurozone – a lot for traders to absorb. Labour market data from the US – in the form of the weekly initial unemployment claims and the ADP private sector jobs survey – will set the scene for Friday’s non-farm payrolls numbers, a report considered crucial in formulating the Federal Reserve’s decision on when to start reducing its bond buying programme. “We expect this Friday’s employment report to seal the deal on a September tapering announcement,” said analysts at Société Générale. US implied borrowing costs are consequently moving up, pulling other highly-rated sovereigns along in their wake. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 4 basis points to 2.93 per cent, flirting with two-year highs, while equivalent duration Bunds are advancing 6bp to show 2.0 per cent for the first time since March 2012. Japanese benchmark bonds are up 1bp at 0.79 per cent after the Bank of Japan concluded its two-day meeting, leaving rates and its asset purchase programme unchanged. In an upbeat statement, the BoJ lifted its assessment of Japan’s economy, which it said appeared to be “recovering moderately”. The yen briefly moved above Y100 versus the dollar, but is now changing hands at Y99.85, just 10 pips weaker on the day. After gaining 5 per cent so far this week, the Nikkei 225 has similarly decided to take time for consolidation, closing up just 0.1 per cent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 1.2 per cent, but on the mainland the Shanghai Composite was down 0.2 per cent, highlighting a mixed session for the region. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index lost 0.4 per cent after figures showing a greater than expected trade deficit for July. On the back of below-forecast mineral exports, the deficit reached A$765m after a modest surplus of A$243m in June. “There is nothing here to challenge the growing view that mining investment has already peaked, with little signs of a pick-up in other sectors so far,” said economists with TD Securities. Australia holds its federal election on Saturday, where the opposition Liberal Party candidate is expected to win. The Aussie dollar is seeing some profit taking after bouncing 3 per cent in the past three sessions on reduced expectations for easier monetary policy following stronger than forecast second-quarter GDP data. The Aussie is weaker by 33 pips to US$0.9133. The Indian rupee is moving further away from record lows as the market perceives greater credibility in the Reserve Bank of India’s new chief. Confidence in Raghuram Rajan’s measures to support the currency sees the dollar fall 1.4 per cent to Rs66.14, nudges bond yields lower and has helped boost the Sensex equity gauge by 2.3 per cent. Additional reporting by Sarah Mishkin in Hong Kong Continue reading
Brazil Economy Will Grow 4% Next Year, Forecasts Mantega
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a05d05e6-11a7-11e3-a14c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2e0fKTMEO By Joe Leahy in São Paulo Brazil’s Finance Minister Mantega speaks during a news conference in Brasili©Reuters Brazil’s economy will return to its former annual growth rate of about 4 per cent next year after it expanded at its quickest pace since 2010 in the second quarter, said Guido Mantega, the finance minister. The optimistic note came even as analysts have warning that the economy would weaken in the second half of 2013 despite the strong performance in the second quarter, when it grew 1.5 per cent compared with the previous three months. “A reduction in interest rates, taxes, in costs – all of that brought a level of dynamism to the Brazilian economy,” Mr Mantega told reporters. The strong advance for GDP in the second quarter, which grew 3.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, was driven by exports, investment and the agricultural and industrial sectors. The government, under political pressure after mass protests in June and with an election due next year, will be hoping the rebound proves sustainable. However, economists said the second-quarter performance, Brazil’s best since the first quarter of 2010 when the economy grew at its fastest pace in decades, would be difficult to sustain, with business confidence falling in July. The strong growth was well in excess of analysts’ forecasts of 0.9 per cent for the second quarter in a survey by Bloomberg. “Given the first signs that the labour market is losing momentum, private credit supply is moving sideways, and sentiment is softening, consumption could remain weak, which adds doubts to the sustainability of investment,” said Guilherme Loureiro, a Barclays economist. Exports in the second quarter grew 6.9 per cent compared with the previous three months, while imports rose only 0.6 per cent. This meant net exports added 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth during the period. Mr Loureiro said he had been expecting 0.3 percentage points of growth from net exports, meaning that much of the surprise in the second-quarter GDP figure came from trade. Investment, much needed in the Brazilian economy, remained strong, growing 3.6 per cent, while private and government consumption, the traditional drivers of the economy, grew only marginally. Agriculture, meanwhile, was up 3.9 per cent. Mr Loureiro said he would revise up his GDP estimates for full-year 2013 following the second-quarter result to 2.7 per cent. But he pointed out that a seasonally adjusted fall in auto production of 6 per cent in July and an expected decline in industrial production in the same month would mean a weaker third quarter. Alberto Ramos, an economist with Goldman Sachs, said growth could be flat in the third quarter, “dragged by the moderation in employment and real wage growth, the sharp decline in consumer and business confidence, and tighter domestic and more exigent external financial conditions”. Mr Mantega said that while the government was confident the recovery was under way, it would not be revising its forecast for this year of 2.5 per cent for the time being. “We will continue with our prediction of 2.5 per cent, with greater accuracy in our measurement by the end of the year,” he said. Continue reading
