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Emerging Market Investors Hide Out in ‘Korexico’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7bb3efaa-1c85-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2f3XJ2xx3 By Paul J Davies Markets are awash with buzzwords. Ever since Brics was coined we have recoiled from PIIGS, grappled with Chimerica and been sceptical about both Abenomics and Liconomics. So here is an aide memoire for where to invest when the US Federal Reserve threatens to taper its ultra-loose monetary policy and emerging markets sag with a draining of vital liquidity. When the markets correct, go “Korexico”. South Korea and Mexico have been two of the best defensive stories around in emerging markets in recent months for a handful of simple reasons: their exports are geared towards a US recovery, they did not suck in the hot money unleashed by central banks and they have not seen credit booms in the past two years. Stock markets in both countries suffered with the rest after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke first talked of “tapering” on May 22. However, they did not fall as far and they recovered more strongly. Stocks in Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines fell deeply into late June and have not enjoyed a big bounce from the recent weaker US economic data that may have put off the end of “quantitative easing”. Korea’s Kospi index fell 11 per cent at worst by the last week of June and is now back to where it was in late May. Mexico did not even drop that far, losing only about 6 per cent at most. Now it is up 1.5 per cent. The other four were down between 15 and 24 per cent at worst. Brazil’s Bovespa is still 5.5 per cent lower since late May, while Bangkok’s SET, Jakarta’s JCI and the PCOMP in Manila are all down about 17 per cent. Part of the story is in fund flows. Both Korea and Mexico suffered outflows from equity markets at first, but not for long. Mexican markets saw almost $4bn of foreign cash leave stock markets in June, but more than $2bn return in July and August. In Korea, where data are published daily, inflows of more than $7bn since the end of June have more than replaced the outflows of $6.6bn during June. What is more, according to Freya Beamish at Lombard Street Research in Hong Kong, money that came out of Korean equities did not leave the country. “When the taper hysteria first hit, foreigners pulled out of Korean equities in the same way as they did across Asia,” she says. “But they went into Korean bonds. Then when the taper concerns eased foreigners went back into equities.” So what has kept these markets attractive and is the defensive story justified? Both have avoided the hot money problem of other emerging markets to a great degree. On the credit side, bank lending to GDP in Korea may look high at 86.5 per cent, but it is lower than many Asian neighbours and has declined a few points since 2009. Other Asian markets have seen explosive credit growth. In Mexico, the ratio has barely moved, remaining at about 20 per cent of GDP. Their stock markets attracted less hot cash, too, especially compared with the dizzying highs reached by the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Korea and Mexico are both exposed to a US recovery via exports. More than two-thirds of Mexico’s exports head north across the border, but only about 10 per cent of Korea’s go to the US. But while Korea is much more dependent on China in general for exports, its key industries of electronics and cars are more influenced by US buying than Chinese. A boon for Korea has been Japan. The yen’s recent depreciation was meant to hit Korea’s competitiveness – but that has not happened. Oddly, a boon for Korea has been Japan. The yen’s recent depreciation was meant to hit Korea’s competitiveness – but that has not happened. “At the corporate level, there had been a concern about renewed competition from Japan benefiting from a weaker yen, but Japanese companies have focused on restoring profitability not boosting sales,” says Jeff Shen, head of emerging markets at BlackRock. But it is not entirely rosy. For a start, first-half earnings were a big disappointment. According to Citigroup, almost half of Korean companies missed analyst estimates and less than 20 per cent beat them – the worst in Asia. In Mexico, again half of companies missed forecasts, but fewer than one-in-ten beat them, the worst in Latin America. In Korea, investors were not expecting great things. The Kospi trades on 8-times forward earnings, one of the cheapest in Asia and below its average over the past 10 years, according to JPMorgan. Mexico, however, is one of the most expensive markets in the world on 17 times forward earnings, a good way above its average. This could well prove a dangerous place to be. For both countries, a sustained US recovery is what will really help – and that is far from certain. Their key attraction in the months ahead is more likely to be as a short-term haven from bouts of taper-hysteria in other emerging markets. Korexico is less a destination than a hide-out. paul.j.davies@ft.com Continue reading
Bank Lending To Emerging Markets Soars To Record
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20802e26-1e12-11e3-a40b-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2f3VWpQSH By Claire Jones, Economics Reporter Banks piled into emerging markets at a record pace earlier this year, highlighting the scale of the global search for yield that has partially reversed since the US Federal Reserve said it intended to slow its bond buying. Cross-border lending to emerging markets surged by $267bn, to an estimated $3.4tn, in the first quarter of 2013, the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday. The BIS said the 8.4 per cent increase was by far the highest recorded, with the amount of interbank lending rising by almost $200bn, or 12 per cent. The so-called central bankers’ bank, which compiles what are widely regarded as the most comprehensive set of statistics on cross-border capital flows, said in its latest Quarterly Review that 85 per cent of the rise was accounted for by more lending to China, Brazil and Russia. The publication of the figures comes as the US Federal Open Market Committee gears up for its policy meeting, ending on Wednesday, when it could decide the timing and pace at which it will slow its $85bn worth of monthly bond purchases. With interest rates close to zero across advanced economies and liquidity abundant as a result of their central banks’ mass bond-buying sprees, credit has flowed into emerging markets in recent years as lenders and investors sought higher returns. According to the BIS data, interbank lending to emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region alone has doubled since the investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed five years ago. Lending to emerging markets has shown signs of retrenchment since Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, signalled in May that the US central bank had begun to consider unwinding its exceptional monetary stimulus. The expectation of a return to higher interest rates in advanced economies in the years ahead has led to a retreat – particularly from emerging markets with large current account deficits such as India – although the pace of that retrenchment has slowed in recent weeks. According to the BIS data, the record rise in cross-border lending to emerging markets in the first quarter mainly reflected buoyant interbank lending, while cross-border credit that was extended to borrowers in China rose by $160bn, or 31 per cent. With international demand for Chinese assets growing, companies in the world’s second-largest economy can borrow at cheaper rates from lenders abroad and are reliant on banks headquartered off the mainland for foreign-currency loans to help fund their expansion overseas. The BIS data showed emerging market companies were also increasingly turning to debt markets in offshore financial centres such as Hong Kong to secure funds. Chinese businesses’ borrowing through offshore financial centres has soared from less than $1bn between 2001 and 2002 to $51bn in the 12 months to June. Of these bonds, 16 per cent is denominated in renminbi, with most of the rest – 77 per cent – in dollars. Though there are restrictions on bringing capital into China, businesses apply for permission to bring funds borrowed abroad into the domestic market. Overseas lending to Brazil expanded by 14 per cent, or $34bn; for Russia, the figure was $29bn, an 18 per cent rise. Both were the largest quarterly increases on record. Euro area banks increased their lending to emerging markets for the first time since the second quarter of 2011. Lenders in France, the Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg accounted for most of the growth. In contrast to the rapid rise in lending to emerging markets, cross-border claims on banks in the advanced economies slipped by $341bn, or 1.5 per cent. Though bank lending to emerging markets could remain strong as long as growth remains so, the end of quantitative easing and an eventual rise in interest rates in advanced economies are likely to slow the pace of cross-border flows. Additional reporting by Simon Rabinovitch. Continue reading
Ukraine Hopes To Cash In On Massive Corn Harvest
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54852a9a-1ba2-11e3-b678-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2f3Up7YOa By Roman Olearchyk and Emiko Terazono Fifty years ago, inspired by a visit to the US cornbelt, Nikita Khrushchev’s grand plan to grow corn across the Soviet Union resulted in devastating crop failures and food shortages. Today, however, in one ex-Soviet state, his vision may be realised. This year, Ukrainian farmers are harvesting their largest corn crop, and as Serhiy Didyk, who farms on the steppes of central Ukraine, said: “Khrushchev’s dream of producing vast quantities of corn on our land is finally becoming reality.” With its rich black soil, Ukraine has historically been known as the “breadbasket of Europe”. Already a large wheat supplier to the Middle East, now Ukraine’s corn acreage is expanding as well, as it offers higher profits and faces far less state regulation than wheat markets. And unlike past efforts for mass production of the grain, these days better quality seeds, fertiliser and pesticides, and favourable weather have boosted yields. Changes in the weather patterns in Ukraine in the past few years have “made corn growing more attractive and less risky compared to other agricultural crops traditionally grown in Ukraine,” says the US Department of Agriculture. This year’s expected corn harvest of 29m tonnes has set the stage for a 35 per cent jump in exports to 18m tonnes, catapulting the eastern European country to the world’s second-largest corn exporter alongside Argentina and Brazil, according to the USDA. Kiev is pinning high hopes on its corn exports. In a rallying call, Mykola Prysyazhnyuk, Ukraine’s agriculture minister, last week said: “There will be strong demand for corn on global markets, with Asia, the Middle East and Africa increasing imports. Let’s make this Ukrainian corn.” The country’s corn boom is a bright spot for Ukraine, which is grappling with its second recession in five years, a ballooning current account deficit and also hit by the recent emerging market currency turmoil that has depressed Kiev’s foreign currency reserves to dangerously low levels. Grain exports – expected to total a record $5.5bn this year, according to consultancy Ukragroconsult – have not been able to offset the sharp declines in revenue from heavy industry and other resource sectors. However, with investments in agriculture expected to rise, the sector’s growth is expected to provide diversity for an economy that is regarded as being too reliant on exports of steel and minerals. Vladimir Pantyushin, regional economist at Barclays, said: “Agriculture has partially offset the decline of metals exports and can extend these gains over the short-to-medium term.” Ukraine aims to meet growing global demand for corn as rising incomes in emerging markets lead to higher meat and dairy consumption. The country’s first ever shipment of corn to China is expected to leave ports in the coming weeks as part of a $1.5bn loan-for-corn deal brokered by both countries last year. Countries including Egypt, Israel, and Spain are among the largest buyers of Ukrainian corn, while producers are also making inroads into Asia, exporting to South Korea, Japan and Malaysia, thanks to competitive prices compared to US and South American counterparts. Asian importers, traditionally reliant on US and Latin America, are also keen to diversify their sources after the worst US drought in 50 years in 2012 devastated corn crops, leading to a price surge. Ukraine’s rising prominence in the world agriculture markets has attracted Monsanto, the US agritechnology group, which announced plans to pump $150m into building a seed production facility, and Dupont Pioneer this summer started production at a $40m seed plant. However, the corn shift is not without challenges. Bumper grain crops worldwide have depressed international prices to three-year lows. Meanwhile the country’s infrastructure is desperately in need of investment in equipment, grain storage and logistics such as ports, roads and railroads. Leading agribusiness groups – international traders such as Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge – are already in Ukraine, but Kiev needs more, say analysts. “The government needs to improve the investment climate in the country overall, reduce its role in the sector further and instead focusing on improvements in infrastructure in order to be prepared for more grains exports,” said Aivaras Abromavicius, partner at East Capital, which manages $5bn in emerging markets But these are challenges one ex-Soviet leader could only have dreamt of. Mr Didyk, the corn farmer, said that if Khrushchev were alive today, “he would be happy to see our big corn crop,” although he probably would not be as pleased to see Ukraine becoming such a leading independent agriculture player. Continue reading
