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Consultants say anti-London political rhetoric is harming the city’s property markets
The uncertainty fuelled by this week’s general election on the London housing market is unparalleled and has resulted in a near flat lining of performance in both the sales and lettings markets, it is claimed. The situation is having a stifling impact on the ability of vast swathes of the capital to retain any momentum, according to leading international real estate consultant Cluttons. While the behaviour of the residential market mirrors what has been seen in previous election years, the anti-London political rhetoric has and is damaging the capital's real estate landscape, the firm says. ‘We are in the midst of one of the toughest forecasting environments in a long time. The likelihood of a hung parliament is just adding to the widespread election anxiety,’ said Cluttons' international research manager, Faisal Durrani. ‘Furthermore, the emergence of London as a scapegoat to win votes is having a damaging impact on the performance of the market, which could have ramifications for the rest of the country,’ he added. He explained that with nearly a quarter of the UK's GDP activity emanating from London, it is difficult to understand why the commercial nerve centre of the UK is being targeted, adding that proposals for a mansion tax has reignited the debate of whether or not London's property millionaires should be taxed, giving further momentum to the anti-London political rhetoric. ‘The mansion tax really is a tax on London and the South East, where almost 90% of the UK's £2 million plus properties are concentrated. Some 27% of the population resides in London and the South East and hard working families will feel the biggest squeeze from any additional tax on higher value properties,’ said Durrani. ‘The reality is that £2 million no longer buys you a mansion in London and hasn't for some time. Two bedroom properties in Shad Thames, St. John's Wood and Pimlico are all in close range of the £2 million barrier and will be netted by any new London housing tax well before the end of the next parliament. A smarter approach might be to make adjustments to council tax pay bands, which no party has been willing to look at,’ he pointed out. Among the Labour Party's housing policy initiatives is a controversial rental cap. The proposal calls for an effective freeze in rents for a period of three years, with CPI-linked increases allowed during this period. ‘In a deflationary environment, this is an easy promise to make, but what happens when inflation climbs above the level of rental value growth, or when rents decline? Our international experience tells us that rent caps are tough to police and artificially choke growth, creating unnatural cycles that are far removed from economic realities,’ Durrani explained. He pointed out that in Abu Dhabi a decision was taken last year to remove the emirate's 5% rent cap as it was artificially holding back the market and was far too broad-brushed and didn't really accurately… Continue reading
New Zealand sees highest volume of house sales for month of March since 2007
Residential property sales in New Zealand in March were up 27.6% in March and 20.3% compared to a year ago, according to the latest index from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. This the highest March sales volume since 2007 and prices are also going upwards with the national median price for March $475,000, an increase of $35,000 or 8% compared to March 2014 and an increase of $45,000 or 10.5% from February. However, it is clear that a strong market in Auckland is leading the growth. Excluding the impact of the Auckland region, the national median price was flat compared to February at $350,000 and $5,000 or 1.4% higher compared to March 2014. ‘March is the strongest sales month of the year, with almost 1,400 more sales than for any of the past 12 months. While the increase in the number of sales is more or less spread across the country, the movement in the national median price is almost entirely an Auckland effect,’ said REINZ chief executive Colleen Milne. ‘Auckland has posted a record number of auction sales in March, with almost one in two sales by auction. Our data shows that on a suburb by suburb basis auctions sell for a premium compared to other sales,’ she pointed out. ‘We also see in the data a noticeable spike in the number of sales over $1 million in Auckland. These two effects explain, at least in part, the jump in the national median and Auckland median prices for March, although the underlying demand pressures remain and supply continues to be restrained by low numbers of new listings,’ she explained. ‘Across the rest of the country, sales volumes and median prices are far better balanced, with a number of regions reporting good sales numbers, good listings and plenty of activity. The national median price, excluding Auckland, has remained at $350,000 for the past two months, indicating that supply and demand are far more balanced outside of Auckland,’ she added. All regions apart from Central Otago Lakes recorded an increase in sales volume compared to February, with Auckland recording the largest of 56%, followed by Taranaki with 50% and Southland with 39%. In comparison with March 2014, all regions recorded increases in sales volume, with Waikato/Bay of Plenty recording the largest, of 41%, followed by Central Otago Lakes with 27% and Hawkes Bay and Manawatu/Wanganui with 23% each. Central Otago Lakes recorded the largest percentage increase in median price compared to March 2014, at 21%, followed by Auckland at 13.0% and Taranaki at 11%. Compared to February, Central Otago Lakes recorded the largest percentage increase from February, at 13%, followed by Auckland at 7% and Canterbury/Westland at 3%. The REINZ Stratified Housing Price Index, which adjusts for some of the variations in the mix that can affect the median price, is 9.5% higher than in March 2014, at 4,340.9. The Auckland Index rose 20% compared to March 2014, the Christchurch Index 5% and… Continue reading
Dubai to get mandatory affordable housing quotas
A proposal by Dubai Municipality to introduce mandatory affordable housing quotas for all new residential developments is expected to bring a wide range of benefits to the emirate, it is claimed. The move will create further maturity in the market and is long overdue, according to a new report from international real estate consultants, Cluttons. With the residential market in Dubai now meandering through the second half of the current property cycle and with values stabilising following the tremendous growth recorded in 2013 and the first half of 2014, the timing for the introduction of such legislation is ideal, the firm says. According to Steven Morgan, chief executive officer of Cluttons Middle East, the issue of affordability has been one that has been quietly bubbling away in the background for some time. ‘With the introduction of the Federal Mortgage caps and the doubling of property registration fees, we saw genuine end users in the market forced into a holding pattern as they attempted to make the transition from rented accommodation to owner occupation,’ he said. ‘The surging rents, driven by the exceptionally strong underlying demand, which was linked to the robust economic growth, meant that household finances were coming under tremendous pressure on several fronts,’ he pointed out. ‘Now of course, with rents starting to show greater stability, households have a window of opportunity to consolidate their finances and make that leap to owner occupation. The prospect of those on monthly incomes of between AED4,000 and AED12,000 being able to control their rental outgoings will no doubt go some way to aiding the speed at which deposits can be amassed,’ he added. He also pointed out that it is important to remember that there is a huge pent up demand for affordable housing in the UAE and with rental affordability thresholds being breached in many cities, we welcome the news on this key issue. According to Cluttons, the idea of affordable housing is not a new concept and it has served cities such as London well, where developers are liable to provide affordable housing for developments starting with as little as ten units. In particular it has aided in the creation of diverse communities, while allowing people from all financial backgrounds to live alongside one another. ‘There have of course been exceptions to the rule, where developers have been permitted to build off-site affordable housing, with land costs being cited as the primary driver for this. Dubai stands to learn a valuable lesson from this as the authorities in London have often been criticised for effectively creating lower income neighbourhoods through this method,’ said Cluttons' international research and business development manager, Faisal Durrani. He explained that Dubai is clearly not short of affordable neighbourhoods. Karama and Satwa are two key stand out areas that evolved organically at the edges of the Deira-Bur Dubai and Jumeirah districts, respectively. ‘During the course of expansion of any city, affordable districts often tend to spring up on the fringes… Continue reading
