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Commercial property demand up in UK as supply falls
Demand from business for commercial property in the UK rose for the eleventh consecutive quarter, while available space fell for the ninth successive period, the latest sector market survey report shows. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) says that as a result, rents are expected to rise at the fastest pace since its survey began in 1998 with 46% more respondents forecasting higher, rather than lower, rent rates going forward. Offices remain the segment of the market where rental expectations remain most buoyant, while retail continues to lag although even in this area, momentum is picking up, while prices are expected to keep rising over the next 12 months. The picture is not dissimilar in the investment market, where purchase enquiries rose again; 53% more surveyors reported an increase in prospective investors over the quarter. Meanwhile, availability continues to decline, exerting further upward pressure on capital values. There were also reports of greater overseas buyer interest, with 36% more respondents seeing more enquiries from overseas investors. Across the whole of the UK, but excluding London, 95% of respondents believe that current commercial market valuations are either at or below fair value, this is roughly unchanged since the first quarter of 2015. However, in London 50% of contributors now feel that commercial property valuations are 'expensive', an increase from 45% in the first quarter. RICS says it was interesting that given the upcoming referendum on the UK’s position in the European Union, when asked if Britain leaving the EU would have significant negative implications for the commercial property market, 44% of respondents felt it would, while 32% believed it would not. Reflecting the high degree of uncertainty, 24% reported they did not know at this point. ‘The results of the latest survey suggest the price of commercial real estate will continue to move higher over the next 12 months and quite possibly by another 10%,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist . ‘Fortunately, the strength of the occupier market is providing some underlying support for the market. Indeed, the feedback we are getting from around the country tells us that the economic expansion is continuing to broaden out with both tenant demand, and just as significantly, investor interest, rising in all areas,’ he added. Continue reading
More people expected to rent than buy in UK by 2025
By 2025 there may be slightly more people renting privately in the UK than owning with a mortgage, according to new research, with average prices rising to £360,000 by 2020. There will also be a greater number of mostly older people than ever before owning their home outright, amounting to almost 35% of all households, says the analysis from accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers. The analysis also says that UK house price growth is projected by PwC to average just over 5% per annum over the period to 2020. So the average residential property in the UK could be worth around £279,000 in 2015, rising to around £360,000 by 2020. Overall the total UK owner occupation rate is projected to fall from a peak of nearly 70% before the financial crisis to around 60% of households by 2025 and house price growth is projected to moderate to around 5% per annum. The report also points out that as house prices have risen much faster than earnings and social housing supply remains constrained, the number of households in the private rented sector has more than doubled since 2001. This trend is predicted to continue with an additional 1.8 million households becoming private renters by 2025. This would take the total to 7.2 million households, almost one in four of the UK total in 2025. The trend is particularly strong in the 20 to 39 so called generation rent age group where more than half will be renting privately by 2025, according to PwC’s latest UK Economic Outlook report. Also by 2025, PwC analysis finds that there could be slightly more people renting privately than owning with a mortgage. The number of households who own their home with a mortgage fell from around 10 million in 2001 to only around eight million in 2014. This is projected to decline further to just under 7.2 million by 2025 as limited housing supply and mortgage availability make it harder for first time buyers to get on the housing ladder. There will also be record numbers of people owning their own home outright. This accounts now for 8.4 million households and PwC projects this will rise to 10.6 million households by 2025, around 35% of the total. A key driver is the rising proportion of over 60 year olds in the UK, who are far more likely to have paid off their mortgages. ‘Driven by a decade of soaring house prices pre-crisis and lower loan to value ratios post crisis, the deposits needed by first time buyers have risen significantly. As a result, a generation of private renters have emerged and this will increasingly be the norm for the 20 to 39 age group,’ said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC. ‘There is also a rising dichotomy in the market between those, mostly older, households who own outright and those, mostly younger, households who still have a mortgage or rent to pay,’ he explained. ‘Overall, we project that the proportion of owner occupiers,… Continue reading
Average new tenancy monthly rental rate in UK almost £1,000, latest index shows
The average rent on a new tenancy in UK cities in the second quarter of the year reached £956 a month or £747 excluding London, according to the latest home rental index. But in London alone it is £1,515 a month, some 10.1% higher than a year ago. The HomeLet rental index also shows that there have been increases in every region compared to a year ago. London is not alone in experiencing double digit rent price growth. While the majority of UK regions saw rent prices increase by less than 10% in the three months to June 2015, both the South East and South West of England saw rent prices rise by 11%. The index report has also analysed the movement of people who privately rent property, to and from the top UK cities by population. These new findings reveal detailed information including where tenants new to the area account for the largest proportion of new rental agreements. In the year to June 2015, the city with the highest percentage of new tenancies being signed by people moving into the area was Wakefield, with 28% of new tenancies being signed by people moving to the city from elsewhere in the UK. It was closely followed by Coventry and Brighton. The figures also show how the movement of tenants has changed since the recession began in 2008 and how prices have changed. Since then average monthly rents have increased by 51% in London, by 25% in Brighton and by 21% in Coventry. The data shows that certain parts of the UK are registering a significant proportion of new tenancies from people moving to the area. In Wakefield and Coventry, for example, more than a quarter of tenancies signed over the past 12 months were taken on by people moving to these cities. These are not necessarily the locations registering the largest quantity of incomers by number; however, they are the cities to which more people are moving as a proportion of new tenancies signed. Some cities have seen significant increases in the proportion of new tenancies being signed by incomers to the area, since the recession. Wakefield and Coventry have seen these figures rise by 7% and 4% respectively since 2007/2008. However, it is Greater London that has seen the largest increase, with 18% of new tenancies signed by people moving in to the capital to rent, compared with 11% in 2007/2008. Movement out of the capital has also reduced since the recession, with the number of new tenancies signed outside of London by people who have left the capital dropping by 5% Since 2007/2008 from 17% to 12%. The index also reveals the UK cities in which tenants are most likely to choose to stay, by analysing the proportion of tenancies being signed by people who have previously lived elsewhere in the same city. It… Continue reading
