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Prime London rental market affected by financial market jitters, says new report
Annual rental value growth in the prime central London property market fell to 2.5% in August as demand remained subdued over, probably due to financial market jitters, a new report suggests. The analysis from international real estate firm says that as a significant proportion of tenant demand in prime central London derives from companies, in particular financial services, it should be no surprise that volatile global stock markets continued to affect sentiment in August. Rental values rose 0.1% from July, however quarterly growth was 0.2%, the lowest three month change since April 2014. Prime gross rental yields edged back up to 2.96% from 2.95% in July. Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that there is a correlation between rental values in prime central London and the performance of the FTSE 100 and the recent stock market dip has been due to concerns over the state of the Chinese economy, with weak manufacturing data and the recent devaluation of the Yuan increasing nerves. ‘Despite the recent volatility, the devaluation should be seen in its historical context and China has several levers it can pull in an attempt to calm stock market falls that aren’t necessarily a reflection of its underlying economic health. The result is more subdued corporate activity and fewer relocation agents currently active in prime central London,’ he explained. He also pointed out that new tenancies in recent weeks have been UK based families that are moving from one neighbourhood of London to another. In the three months to July this year, the number of new applicants fell by 15% compared to the same period in 2014, while viewing levels were down 12.6% and the number of tenancies agreed declined by 12.1%. Meanwhile, the rentals market is still affected by distortions in the sales market following the general election, Bill also pointed out. ‘Some vendors have delayed selling and are exploring the rental option as they wait for stronger house price growth to return after a stamp duty increase in December for properties worth more than £1.1 million dampened growth,’ he said. ‘The result is more rental stock on the market, which has led to prospective tenants making offers on multiple properties, meaning deals are harder to finalise,’ he added. Continue reading
Housing affordability falls in the United States
Housing affordability at a national level in the United States is down from a year ago and is struggling to keep pace with the growth of home prices, according to new research. The analysis from the National Association of Realtors shows that housing affordability is down from a year ago in June as the median price for a single family home in the US is up from a year ago. Regionally, the West had the biggest increase in price at 10% while the Northeast experienced the slowest price growth at 4.4%. The Midwest and the South both contributed solid price gains of 7.2%. Nationally, affordability is down from 155.2 in June 2014 to 153.1 in June 2015 and down month on month in all regions. The Midwest had the largest drop of 4.8% while the West fell only 3.5%. From one year ago, affordability is down in all regions except the Northeast which had an increase of 1.1%. The West saw the biggest decline in affordability at 3.6% and the Midwest had the smallest decline of 0.7%. Despite month to month changes, the most affordable region is the Midwest where the index is 191.1. The index is 161.4 in the South, 150.7 in the Northeast, and 113.9 in the West. With rates on the rise potential home buyers may try to hasten their search and purchase process. Lending options with low down payments are now more widely available. Mortgage applications are currently up but demand may level off if prices and rates continue to increase, the report explains. It also points out that new home construction has favoured the multifamily inventory stock while single family homes have been lagging in production. An increase in single family construction will help ease the inventory shortage issue and slow down price growth, it suggests. Continue reading
UK households positive about property market, latest sentiment index shows
Households in all regions of the UK perceived that the value of their home rose in August, and at a faster pace than in July, according to the latest house sentiment index. It is the first rise in the index from Knight Frank and Markit Economics in the month of August, which is typically a quieter summer period, since 2009. The index, regarded as a bellwether for house price growth across the country, says that it reflects the upward pressure on house prices due to a lack of sock across the residential property market. Households in all UK regions expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months, although the rate of expected increases eased in many regions including London and the South East and some 6.6% of households expect to buy a home over the next 12 months, up from 5.3% in the previous month and the joint highest since July 2014. Some 23.6% of the 1,500 households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, the second highest reading since October last year. Just over 4% said that prices had fallen, resulting in a HPSI reading of 59.5. This is the twenty ninth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the steeper the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling. August’s reading marked a rise from the 58.6 recorded in July, and while matching June’s reading, it remains well below the record high of 63.2 achieved in May last year. Households in all 11 regions reported that prices rose in May, with those in the South East at 64.3 reporting the biggest rise. This is only the second time in the last four years that the perceived increase in South East prices has outstripped that in London. In fact, the reading for London eased notably after a spike in July, dipping from 69.6 to 63.4, the second largest monthly drop since late 2010. While Londoners still perceive that prices are rising, they are reporting that the pace of increases has eased. Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, pointed out that UK house price sentiment has now strengthened considerably from the year and a half low reached in February. ‘While still below the high water mark reached last May, the latest survey indicates that perceptions of rising property values are more widespread than at any time seen during the five years leading up to 2014,’ he said. ‘The uptick confounds the usual seasonal summer lull and comes in spite of heightened expectations of a Bank of England rate rise next year. In particular, August’s spike in current price perceptions across the South of England suggests that an acute shortage of supply remains the major factor driving up property values,’ he explained. ‘Looking ahead, the prospect of a rate hike next year does appear… Continue reading
