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UK house price growth set to slow in 2016, latest outlook report suggests
House prices in the UK are expected to see growth slow to 4% to 6% due to the increasing difficulty in getting on the housing ladder, together with the prospect of an interest rate rise, according to a new report. The forecast from lender the Halifax comes after a year when activity levels have remained modest by historical standards. A shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity in 2016, it says in its outlook report. Price growth is expected to slow more sharply in London than elsewhere but all regions are expected to experience price rises in 2016 which will be broadly in line with income growth. The report points out that levels of house building remain low, but improvements are expected over the medium term and this would help to bring demand and supply into better balance, helping to constrain upward pressure on house prices. ‘There is little reason to expect any fundamental shift in the key market drivers in the immediate future. As a result, the substantial imbalance between supply and demand is likely to persist, maintaining upward pressure on house prices in 2016,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘On average, UK house prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of house building, and exceptionally low interest rates,’ he explained. ‘Nonetheless, with house prices continuing to increase more quickly than average earnings, it is increasingly difficult to get on the housing ladder. This ongoing development, combined with the growing prospect of an interest rate rise, should start to put the brakes on house price growth during the course of 2016,’ he pointed out. ‘A continuing shortage of supply is likely to continue to act as a significant constraint on activity over the coming year. Sales in 2016 are expected to be modestly higher than this year, but to remain well below the peak of 1.6 million in 2006,’ he added. The report points out that house price growth has been robust throughout 2015. The quarterly rate of increase was 2.8% in October, according to the latest figures, a little above the 2.5% average over the first nine months of the year. The annual rate stood at 9.7% in October, the highest annual rate since August 2014 when it was 9.7%, with the annual rate in a narrow band between 8% and 10% all year. ‘Improving economic conditions with continuing growth and rising employment and strengthening household finances, assisted by increasing real earnings for the first time for several years, have boosted housing demand during 2015. This has been supported further by very low mortgage rates which have fallen over the year,’ Ellis explained. ‘Strengthening demand has combined with very low supply, both in terms of new build and second hand properties for sale, to drive strong underlying house price growth. New instructions by home sellers declined in October for the ninth… Continue reading
Pending homes sales in the US up marginally after two months of declines
Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in the United States in October, but shifted marginally higher after two straight months of declines, according to the latest index data. The figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), show that gains in the Northeast and West were offset by declines in the Midwest and South. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2% to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9% above October 2014. The index has increased year on year for 14 months in a row. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, explained that pending sales have plateaued as buyers struggle to overcome a scant number of available homes for sale and prices that are rising too fast in some markets. ‘Contract signings in October made the most strides in the Northeast, which hasn't seen much of the drastic price appreciation and supply constraints that are occurring in other parts of the country. In the most competitive metro areas, particularly those in the South and West, affordability concerns remain heightened as low inventory continues to drive up prices,’ he said. According to Yun, although contract activity has slightly trended downward since the spring, the ongoing strengthening of several local job markets continues to fuel the improved demand for buying that has now pushed existing sales above a five million sales pace for eight consecutive months. ‘Areas that are heavily reliant on oil related jobs are the exception and have already started to see some softness in sales because of declining energy prices,’ Yun added. With demand expected to remain stable through the final two months of the year, Yun forecasts existing home sales are set to finish 2015 at a pace of 5.30 million, the highest since 2006. He pointed out that although further expansion in existing sales is expected next year, ongoing inventory shortages and affordability pressures from rising prices and mortgage rates will likely temper sales growth to around 3% in 2016. Home prices are expected to slightly moderate from a 6% increase in 2015 to 5% next year. ‘Unless sizeable supply gains occur for new and existing homes, prices and rents will continue to exceed wages into next year and hamstring a large pool of potential buyers trying to buy a home,’ said Yun. A breakdown of the figures show that the index in the Northeast rose 4.5% in October, and is now 6.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell by 1% but remains 3.3% above October 2014. Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.7% in October and are now 0.3% below last October. The index in the West climbed 1.7% in October and is 10.4% above a year ago. Continue reading
Continued uncertainty over tax still affecting prime central London property
Annual price growth in prime central London fell to 0.9% in November, against the background of prolonged uncertainty surrounding the impact of property tax, according to the latest analysis report. Annual growth was at its lowest level since October 2009, with a monthly decline of 0.3% contributing to the slowdown, says the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. In the six months to October, when asking prices fell by 10% to 20%, exchanges took an average of 24 weeks but viewing levels in October were the third highest since the start of 2014, it also shows. It points out that the Autumn Statement from Chancellor George Osborne which announce that buy to let investors and those purchasing second homes face paying an extra 3% in stamp duty tax from next April came as tentative signs began to emerge that buyers and sellers are adjusting to previous stamp duty changes introduced in December 2014. ‘After a year under the new system, which raised rates for properties worth more than £1.1 million, a growing number of vendors have begun to set asking prices that reflect the more subdued level of demand and heightened sensitivity to pricing among buyers,’ said Tom Bill, head of London residential research at Knight Frank. He explained that Knight Frank sales data for the six months to October shows properties sold at an incrementally slower pace as the achieved price fell below the asking price. In instances where the achieved price was 80% to 90% of the asking price, where the asking price came down by between 10% and 20%, exchanges took an average of 24 weeks. This compared to nine weeks where the asking price and the achieved price are the same, that is to say where no reduction was necessary. ‘It demonstrates the strength of underlying demand, which is reflected in the fact viewing levels have increased in recent months. Viewings in October were at the third highest level since the start of 2014,’ Bill added. November also saw the release of Knight Frank’s global tax report, which showed London was in the middle of the pack compared to other major global cities in relation to prime property tax and holding costs. ‘The latest stamp duty changes appear unlikely to alter this position materially,’ said Bill. Continue reading
