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UK housing sales set to jump by a fifth by 2020,
The number of property transactions in the UK could rise by over a fifth in five years to reach almost 1.5 million in 2020, according to new research. This will happen if first time buyers are given greater access to high loan to value lending, says the study commissioned by mover conveyancing services My Home Move. The increase in annual property transaction figures from the 1.23 million recorded in 2015 to the projected 1.49 million in 2020, a rise of 21.1%, is based on an econometric forecast of property transaction volumes. This includes a 6.6% rise in property sales in 2016, compared to 2015. The independent research uses a forecast model that draws on the historic relationship between property transactions and three variables that have had the greatest impact on property turnover: average mortgage rates, unemployment figures and the average first time buyer percentage deposit. The forecast of transaction levels is based on the OBR prediction for unemployment which is expected to fall slightly to 5.0% this year before rising slightly to 5.3% by 2020 and the OBR prediction for Bank Rate which is expected to rise gradually from early 2018 to reach 1.0% by the end of 2020. As part of the research, the average percentage deposit for first time buyers has been independently forecasted. This has been modelled to fall from the current 17.1% to 10% by late 2019 as more high LTV mortgage products come onto the market helping to make homeownership more affordable. As property transactions provide one of the most important measures of the overall health of the UK’s housing market, the research highlights a positive future for the market as transactions are set to advance strongly. ‘Although house prices have improved since the economic crash, property transaction levels, which are a key indicator of market health, are yet to return to their peak of 2007,’ said Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move. ‘This report highlights the critical importance of unlocking access to high loan to value mortgage products for first time buyers, if we are to see transaction volumes grow and the health of the market remain,’ he explained. ‘The forecast shows that the number of home purchases could see a dramatic improvement if access to home ownership for first time buyers is nurtured. In particular, we need more lending to those with smaller deposits so that average deposit sizes for first time buyers fall to 10%,’ he pointed out. ‘However, reaching this would require a coordinated effort from across the industry sooner rather than later from house builders to ensure the supply is there, from lenders to provide the high loan to value lending that first time buyers depend on, and from those of us who support first time buyers with their purchase to ensure that buying a home is as easy as it can be,’ he added. ‘It couldn’t be clearer how important first time buyers are in… Continue reading
Housing sales in UK set to jump by a fifth by 2020,
The number of property transactions in the UK could rise by over a fifth in five years to reach almost 1.5 million in 2020, according to new research. This will happen if first time buyers are given greater access to high loan to value lending, says the study commissioned by mover conveyancing services My Home Move. The increase in annual property transaction figures from the 1.23 million recorded in 2015 to the projected 1.49 million in 2020, a rise of 21.1%, is based on an econometric forecast of property transaction volumes. This includes a 6.6% rise in property sales in 2016, compared to 2015. The independent research uses a forecast model that draws on the historic relationship between property transactions and three variables that have had the greatest impact on property turnover: average mortgage rates, unemployment figures and the average first time buyer percentage deposit. The forecast of transaction levels is based on the OBR prediction for unemployment which is expected to fall slightly to 5.0% this year before rising slightly to 5.3% by 2020 and the OBR prediction for Bank Rate which is expected to rise gradually from early 2018 to reach 1.0% by the end of 2020. As part of the research, the average percentage deposit for first time buyers has been independently forecasted. This has been modelled to fall from the current 17.1% to 10% by late 2019 as more high LTV mortgage products come onto the market helping to make homeownership more affordable. As property transactions provide one of the most important measures of the overall health of the UK’s housing market, the research highlights a positive future for the market as transactions are set to advance strongly. ‘Although house prices have improved since the economic crash, property transaction levels, which are a key indicator of market health, are yet to return to their peak of 2007,’ said Doug Crawford, chief executive officer of My Home Move. ‘This report highlights the critical importance of unlocking access to high loan to value mortgage products for first time buyers, if we are to see transaction volumes grow and the health of the market remain,’ he explained. ‘The forecast shows that the number of home purchases could see a dramatic improvement if access to home ownership for first time buyers is nurtured. In particular, we need more lending to those with smaller deposits so that average deposit sizes for first time buyers fall to 10%,’ he pointed out. ‘However, reaching this would require a coordinated effort from across the industry sooner rather than later from house builders to ensure the supply is there, from lenders to provide the high loan to value lending that first time buyers depend on, and from those of us who support first time buyers with their purchase to ensure that buying a home is as easy as it can be,’ he added. ‘It couldn’t be clearer how important first time buyers are in… Continue reading
Prime properties in UK towns and cities outperforming the countryside
Prime properties in the UK in urban locations are outperforming their rural counterparts across the country, according to new research. A growing trend of living in thriving town and cities other than London since the economic downturn of 2007 is behind the increase, says the new analysis from real estate firm Knight Frank. Across all the prime regional markets, urban properties are now on average 4.1% above their 2007 peak. This has been particularly evident in prime towns and cities including Bath, Oxford, Winchester and Cheltenham. The report also explains that demand is strong in these locations, in part due to the high concentration of prime housing stock and good schools which make them attractive to families looking to upsize, but also thanks to a growing number of equity rich downsizers looking to move to areas where they can have access to a range of good restaurants, shops and amenities. ‘An important consideration for such buyers, however, is just how much extra it costs to move to a property with more bedrooms, or how much equity can be released by downsizing, especially given the fact that in some regional cities the price per square foot can be similar to some London boroughs,’ said senior analysis Oliver Knight. Looking at the latest average house price trends across the country, the firm’s research team has calculated that the cost of adding or removing a bedroom is around £52,000 on average across England and Wales. This figure does not take into account the added costs associated with buying a property, including stamp duty. The regional nature of the market means that in terms of costs and savings there are large variations depending on where households are based and where they are moving to, as well as the type of properties involved. ‘We also acknowledge that the size and amenities of homes with more bedrooms will generally differ from those with fewer bedrooms, and this too will be reflected in the price. For example, downsizing from a five bed detached house to a three bed terrace in the South East could release around £263,000 in equity, based on average property prices, while downsizing from a four bed to a three bed property in the West Midlands could release £45,000 in equity,’ Knight explained. ‘There are also notable differences in terms of property type. Moving from a three bed terraced house to a four bed terraced property in Yorkshire costs, on average, £38,000. Making that same move from a detached property to another detached property costs closer to £50,000,’ he added. The research also found that costs are greatest in markets on the outskirts of London such as Elmbridge, St Albans and Guildford, perhaps unsurprisingly given average property prices tend to be higher in such locations. ‘These markets have also been among the first to reap the benefits of the ripple effect of demand coming out of London. As regional economies continue to recover, more London buyers are expected… Continue reading
