Tag Archives: australia
Brexit analysis shows vote has affected UK prices and sales
Overall, both property prices and sales in the UK have fallen by around 8% since the referendum decision to leave the European Union, but there are wide regional variations. London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland have been the hardest hit by Brexit, according to a survey covering the four weeks before and after the vote on 23 June carried out by ReallyMoving. It found that sales fell by 8% and prices also fell by 8% across the country but sales were down much further in London by 44% while prices in Scotland increased by 15%. Sales volumes fell markedly, down 12% for the month after the vote compared to the month before, based on the 35,000 people who registered for quotes for conveyancing, surveys and removals with the firm. Although some summer seasonal decline is expected, typically around 4% to 5%, the firm says that this is a seasonally adjusted 8% fall, an unusually high volume drop and the fall of 8% in average property is a significantly larger month on month change than seen at any point in the previous five years. Looking at the breakdown in prices and transaction volumes across the UK reveals striking regional differences. While London remains by far the highest-priced region, prices have fallen 12% since Brexit, and property purchases down 44%. The number of property purchases has fallen in all regions, most strongly in London, the Home Counties, and Northern Ireland, while Wales saw a drop of just 3%. Although prices fell significantly in London, there were even bigger declines in the North East of England and Northern Ireland, as both fell 17%. But, prices rose by 15% in Scotland, and by a more modest 7% in Wales. International moves have increased markedly since Brexit, but only for moves away from the UK, which have increased by 43%. Moves to the UK are broadly unchanged. The most popular destinations for international moves from the UK are to Spain, USA, Canada, Australia, Germany and Italy. ‘Brexit has had a marked impact on the UK property market. The drop in transaction volumes has been striking, particularly in London, the Home Counties and Northern Ireland,’ said Rob Houghton, chief executive officer of ReallyMoving. ‘In the medium term we would expect volumes to pick up if the price falls are maintained, but it is clear that many prospective home movers are sitting tight until there's greater clarity over the post-Brexit economy and our likely new relationship with the rest of the EU,’ he added. Continue reading
Majority of Australians think it is a good time to buy a home
Almost two thirds of Australian’s think now is a good time to be buying a home while roughly the same proportion believe the housing market is vulnerable to a significant correction. The latest quarterly housing market sentiment survey by CoreLogic and TEG Rewards housing market sentiment survey highlights the paradox in housing market attitudes. The data shows that 64% of respondents thought it was a good time to buy a property, up from 60% of respondents a year ago. However, 65% also indicated they thought property values could suffer a significant correction. Sydney based respondents, where affordability constraints are the most pressing of any capital city, were the most pessimistic about whether now is a good time to buy a property, however slightly more than half the respondents still felt it was a good time to buy. Conversely, the regions where dwelling values have peaked and shown a downturn are where respondents are most confident about buying conditions. Some 80% or more of respondents in the Northern Territory, Regional Western Australia and Perth indicated they thought it was a good time to buy. ‘With such as a large proportion of survey respondents thinking that now is a good time to buy a dwelling, it was surprising that almost two thirds also indicated they thought dwelling values could suffer a significant correction,’ said Tim Lawless CoreLogic head or research. ‘While the results suggest that survey respondents are concerned there could be a substantial fall in Australian home values, the proportion is lower from a year ago when 75% of respondents thought the market was vulnerable to a significant correction in values,’ he added. When asked whether dwelling values would rise, fall or remain steady over the next 12 months, the majority of respondents expected values to remain steady, with Tasmanians the most optimistic about the direction of value growth over the next year. Nationally, 38% of respondents are expecting dwelling values to rise over the next twelve months. In contrast, a year ago 45% of respondents thought values would rise, indicating that respondents have become less optimistic with regards to their views on capital gains over the next financial year. For rental market conditions, only 11% of survey respondents are expecting weekly rents to fall over the next 12 months, despite the CoreLogic rental series showing the weakest rental conditions in at least two decades. Nationally, almost equal numbers of survey respondents indicated that weekly rents would either rise or remain stable over the coming year, however there were some considerable variations across the regions. Less than one fifth of respondents in Perth and Regional Western Australia think weekly rents will rise. ‘The low expectation of rental rises in these areas is in line with current rental statistics which show ongoing falls in weekly rents across most parts of Western Australia,’ Lawless pointed out. Continue reading
Rate of city house price growth in UK starting to plateau
The rate of house price growth in key cities in the UK is starting to plateau after a strong first half of the year with London in particular likely to see slower growth ahead, according to the latest index data. Month on month the Hometrack Cities Index recorded growth of 6.9% in June and year on year growth is running at 10.2%, the same level as the previous month. The index report suggests that double digit year on year growth has been sustained by the surge of investor demand ahead of the stamp duty change in April while low mortgage rates and improving economic conditions have continued to attract households into the market against a backdrop of dwindling supply with the net result being continued upward pressure on prices. In June Bristol remained the fastest growing city with year on year price growth of 14.7% taking the average price to £253,400, followed by London with annual growth of 13.7% to £476,800 and then Cambridge up 11.5% to £411,800. The data also shows a strong uplift in price growth in large cities such as Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds where house prices are comparatively affordable and yields above average and attractive to investors. Month on month the highest growth was in Oxford at 9.6%, followed by Cambridge at 9.5%, London at 8.2% and Bristol at 7.8%. At the opposite Aberdeen has seen prices fall by 8.2% year on year but the city recorded a small uplift month on month of 0.3%. The report points out that any impact from the decision by the UK to leave the European Union will not be reflected in the index for two to three months. ‘That said, we have reported signs of slowing growth in some cities, particularly in southern England where affordability levels are close to record highs. The slowdown might have been more apparent by now had the stamp duty change not been introduced,’ it says. A new analysis looking at listings also shows that for selected cities new supply has grown faster in the last three months than the average increase in supply seen over the last 12 months. For all cities in England and Wales excluding London new supply has grown 10% faster than the 12 month average, this rises to over 15% in London. In contrast, the relative change in sales over the last three months has registered a relative fall of 8% in London meaning that 8% fewer homes sold in the last three months compared to the 12 month average. The relative change in Bristol is 0%, while in larger regional cities, where house price growth has been picking up momentum, the relative change is sales is positive at up to 7% in Manchester. 'This analysis shows how recent sales momentum in regional cities, and higher house price growth, appears to have held up over the referendum period. In contrast, the headwinds facing the London market ahead of the vote… Continue reading
