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UK asking prices slowed in August but no more than usual for the summer
The price of property coming onto the market in the UK in August fell by 1.2% but as the summer is often a quieter time it is not necessarily all due to Brexit, according to the latest asking price report. Indeed, the monthly decline is in line with the 1.2% average drop over the last six years at this seasonally subdued time of year and the Rightmove report points out that it is usual for sellers in the summer holiday season to price more cheaply. The monthly fall took the average asking price to £304,222 and prices are still up by 4.1% year in year, the data also shows. A breakdown of the figures shows that while first time buyers are paying 0.5% less month on month at an average of £188,237, it is the top end of the market that has seen asking prices fall the most, down 2.9% month on month to £538,755. The report also points out that larger homes are taking longest time to sell while the number of days to sell increased the most in London and South East in the last two months. It suggests that 2016 on course to be a year of two halves with activity skewed in the first half of year with the buy to let surge boosting property transactions to 12% higher than 2015 but the outcome of the second half of 2016 hangs on the strength of the traditional autumn market rebound How different the two halves will be depends on the strength of the traditional market rebound this autumn, especially at the upper end of the market and within the London commuter belt, which currently appear to be the most subdued, according to Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst. ‘Many prospective buyers take a summer break from home hunting, and those who come to market at this quieter time of year tend to price more aggressively. This summer is also affected by both Brexit uncertainty and the aftermath of the buy to let rush in March to beat the stamp duty deadline,’ he said. ‘The average fall in new seller asking prices at this time of year has been 1.2% over the last six years, so this month’s fall is exactly in line with the long term average. The largest price falls at this time of year were 2% and 1.3% in 2014 and 2010, with the smallest fall being 0.8% after the general election in 2015,’ he pointed out. Shipside explained that the sector that would benefit most from an autumn pick-up is made up of larger homes with four bedrooms or more. They are taking the longest time to sell, with an average of 74 days from being advertised on Rightmove to being marked as sold subject to contract by estate agents. This ‘top of the ladder’ sector is also suffering the largest drop in new seller asking prices this month, with a fall of 2.9%…. Continue reading
No signs yet of Brexit creating a UK housing recession says new analysis
Since the European Union Referendum the number of residential properties advertised for sale in the UK has increased and average asking prices have reduced by 0.2%, new research shows. While the number of properties with a reduced asking price has increased from 29.3% to 34.5%, mortgage availability remains broadly unchanged, according to the analysis report from global investment banking firm. The early conclusion from the industry note from the firm’s UK Building and Residential Services team of analysts is that UK households have the confidence to try and move house and accept that prices may need to soften to make it happen since the decision to leave the EU while there is no sign of a property recession. The research says that listings volumes, for example, do not suggest a slowdown and an analysis of residential property listings on major UK property portals and have found that since the EU referendum the number of listings has increased by 3.6%. It also points out that in the two previous UK recessions housing transactions were, with hindsight, a lead indicator, falling for more than 18 months ahead of the recession. In the absence of current transaction data we view listings activity as an early look towards housing transactions. With listings increasing, it appears UK households are prepared and ready to move. Before the vote there were headlines suggesting that Brexit would result in a steep fall in house prices but according to the analysis the trend in asking prices is only just downwards. On average asking prices have reduced by 0.2% since the EU referendum, somewhat less than the movement in the prices of the shares of the companies which service the UK housing market. ‘Perhaps more interesting is the movement in the number of properties which have reduced their asking prices. Before the EU referendum 29.3% of listings had reduced their initial asking price, this figure has now increased to 34.5%, overall a move of 520bp or 18%. This suggests to us that UK households remain keen to move and are adjusting their price expectations,’ the report explains. In the two previous recessions London house prices were the first to fall and the first to rise but the research show that so far 76% of London postcodes have seen an increase of listings, 22% a reduction and 1% unchanged. With respect to asking prices 70% of London postcodes have seen a reduction in asking prices and 30% an increase. A breakdown of the figures show that in East London 35% of postcodes have seen asking prices rise and 65% fall, in the North of the city 30% have risen and 70% fallen, in South London the split is 27% up and 73% down and in West London 25% up and 75% down. ‘London has the largest rental market in the UK and we believe that asking rents provide the most cutting edge data point with respect to the health of the underlying… Continue reading
Rents up 1.5% in UK, but growth is slowing across the country
Rents in London fell by 0.5% in July compared to the same month in 2015 as growth in the lettings market in the city stalled, but they increased across the UK by 1.5%, the latest index shows. However, a breakdown of the figures from the Countrywide Lettings Index shows that rental growth slowed across every region of the country and the drop in London was the first annual fall in rents for six years. In July the average rent in the UK was £951 a month, up 1.5% on last year, but rising half as fast as in July 2015. Rents fell by 2% in Wales, by 1% in Scotland and by 1.1% in the South East of England but in the North of England and the Midlands, the rate of rental growth hit the highest level for two years. The highest rents are in Central London at an average of £2,638, up 2.1% year on year, followed by Greater London at £1,280 and the South East at £1,173. In the East of England they are £963, up 3.8%, in the South West £856, up 3.3%, in the Midlands £703, up 4.8%, in the North of England £694, up 4.7%, in Scotland £689, down 1% and in Wales £671, down 2%%. The report points out that while tenant demand has increased nationally, the volume of homes coming onto the rental market has slowed or in some cases reversed rental growth. In July there were 23% more homes available to rent in the UK than at the same time last year, while the capital saw a rise of a third. Some of this increase has been driven by purchases rushed through to beat the stamp duty deadline, however the number of homes available to rent has continued to rise in recent months, particularly in London and the South East. An increase in the number of homes on the market has meant less deals are agreed above asking rents. In July 2015 16% of tenants paid over the asking rent to secure a home compared to 7% in July 2016. In London the fall was larger, 11% of homes let for more than the asking price in July, down from 32% in July 2015. ‘The large rise in numbers of homes available to rent has certainly slowed rental growth, even with tenant numbers increasing. Stock levels were already running higher than usual due to investors bringing forward purchases in the rush to beat the stamp duty deadline in April,’ said Johnny Morris, director of research at Countrywide. ‘Added to that, uncertainty in the sales market in the run up to, and after the European Union Referendum has caused more discretionary sellers to turn to the rental market. While rental price growth has slowed, current market dynamics are likely to accelerate the growth of renting. It seems that with more stock and demand from tenants we will… Continue reading
