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Home prices in Canada see biggest year on year gain since 2010
National home sales in Canada increased by 3.1% from March to April and prices were up 13.1% year on year, the biggest gain since May 2010, the latest index shows. The data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also shows that actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 10.3% compared to April 2015 while the number of newly listed homes was little changed with a decline of 0.2% from March to April. Sales were up in April compared to the previous month in about 70% of all local markets, led by the National Capital Region and Edmonton. Following small declines the previous month, activity held steady in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and edged lower in Greater Vancouver. ‘National home sales set new monthly records over the past two months, even as activity in Greater Vancouver and the GTA appears to have topped out,’ said CREA president Cliff Iverson. ‘With almost three quarters of all local markets posting sales gains in April, there are plenty of other places where sales are climbing as we head into the busiest time of the year for home buyers,’ he added. CREA chief economist Gregory Klump pointed out that supply shortages and tight housing market conditions have become self-reinforcing in the GTA and the Greater Vancouver Area appears to be heading in that direction too. ‘While significant home price gains may entice some homeowners in these markets to list their home for sale, the issue for many is that the decision to move means they would also be looking to buy while competition for scarce listings is fierce,’ he explained. ‘As a result, many home owners are deciding to stay put and continue accumulating capital gains. That’s keeping listings off the markets at a time when they are already in short supply,’ he added. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity rose 10.3% year on year ago to shatter all previous records for the month of April. It also marked the second highest level for transactions for any single month and stood 16.5% above the 10 year average for the month of April. Activity was up from year-ago levels in about 70% of all local markets, led by a number of markets in British Columbia as well as the GTA and the number of markets where new supply rose and where it fell was fairly evenly split. New listings were up most in Edmonton and on Vancouver Island but fell in the GTA, London and St. Thomas as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. The national sales to new listings ratio rose to 64.5% in April 2016, the ratio’s tightest reading since October 2009. A sales to new listings ratio between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. The ratio was above 60% in about half of all local housing markets in April, virtually all of which are located in British Columbia, the… Continue reading
Mortgage lending in UK fell in April, but no surprise due to March buy let boost
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £18.5 billion in April, some 29% lower than March’s lending total of £26.2 billion, but 16% higher than the £16 billion lent in April last year. CML economist Mohammad Jamei pointed out that a fall was expected due to a rush in buy to let lending in March as landlords rushed through sales to beat the new 3% surcharge on additional homes that was introduced on 01 April. ‘As we move past the stamp duty change that came into effect at the start of April, we expect to see a quieter second quarter, as some transactions that were due to take place were brought forward to the first quarter of this year,’ he explained. ‘This is likely to mean that over the next few months buy to let takes a back seat as lending is driven by first time buyers, movers and remortgage customers. The underlying picture still shows signs of growth, as the market remains underpinned by strong fundamentals such as increasing wages and rising employment,’ he pointed out. ‘But it is possible that the uncertainty around the upcoming European Union referendum in June will weigh on activity in the upcoming months,’ he added. According to David Brown, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, April lending was never going to live up to the March boost which was characterised by massively increased borrowing to landlords and second home owners. ‘But while we’ve seen a bit of a monthly comedown since then, the annual fundamentals are indicative of strength in the mortgage market. Widely expected to be an underwhelming month, April has still set an impressive benchmark for this time of the year, with lending levels harking back to the pre-recession era,’ he said. ‘Buy to let investors are just one type of buyer after all, and borrowing isn’t going to ground to a halt while they have a breather. The stamp duty changes didn’t affect the plans and intentions of hordes of other first time buyers and home movers, and in these areas buyer demand is still bursting at the seams,’ he added. David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Business, pointed out that underneath the month on month lending patterns, there is a strong and steady current of buy to let lending critical to meet growing public demand for private rented accommodation. ‘Underlying annual growth in April shows a more sustainable path aside from any short term fluctuations and the need for buy to let mortgages to support the role of landlords,’ he added. The extremes of March make it futile to try to extract any meaningful insight from April's numbers, according to John Eastgate, sales and marketing director of OneSavings Bank. More importantly, market feedback suggests that normality has returned at enquiry level, although it will be the third quarter before we see this in new lending,’ he said. ‘A strong undercurrent of demand and a growing UK population means… Continue reading
Property slowdown a myth for majority of London, new research shows
Price growth at the top end of the London residential property market has slowed but the majority of the city is seeing real estate values grow. Across most of the city property prices are up 8.2% year on year but for the top quarter prices are down by 2.4% year on year and 0.6% quarter on quarter, according to the latest report from Stirling Ackroyd. A breakdown of the figures shows that the traditional top quarter accounts for two thirds of Greater London’s postcode districts experiencing price falls with Kensington High Street seeing prices fall by 11.8%. This is followed by Notting Hill with a decline of 10% and Hampstead but areas such as Soho’s W1, Sutton and Tottenham are now driving London property price growth instead. By contrast, if London’s old luxury postcodes are excluded, the remaining three quarters of the capital saw a 2% rise over the same period, or annualised house price growth of 8.2% for the overwhelming majority of London’s neighbourhoods. Across the board, house prices in the capital rose by 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015, with the average London property now worth £533,000. As a broad average this translates to a 6.6% annualised growth rate for the whole of Greater London. Out of a total 272 postcode districts in the capital, 47 saw local drops in average property values. However 32 of these districts fall within London’s traditional prime top quarter of the property market. Within the top quarter of London’s property market, a given postcode has a roughly 50:50 chance of hosting falling house prices whereas for the rest of the capital a given postal district has a 93% probability of price rises. ‘London’s hugely diverse property market is undergoing a serious readjustment, with the traditional old heart of prime London under pressure from many fronts; from a low global oil price and China’s economic slowdown, to stamp duty reform and international fears of Brexit,’ said Andrew Bridges, managing director of Stirling Ackroyd. ‘Yet for most of London’s communities, these factors affecting luxury buyers are less important. There are still too few new homes coming onto the majority of the market compared to demand from a growing population and the majority of the London market is still in tune with, and restrained, by those fundamentals. Anyone who thinks that London property is synonymous with international jet setters is only looking at a very small part of what London has to offer,’ he explained. He also pointed out that there is also an outwards wave of interest, away from the old peaks of property prices. ‘Within the wider spread of London home buyers, a growing band of increasingly affluent people can no longer afford the most overcrowded traditional areas of London,’ he said. ‘This demographic of professionals are redefining the map of the capital’s up and coming locations. New, dynamic parts of London are emerging further east, driven by a… Continue reading
