Taylor Scott International News
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £19.9 billion in December, some 3% less than the previous month but up 23% year on year. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) brings the estimated total for the year to £220.3 billion, an 8% increase on 2014’s £203.3 billion and the highest annual gross lending figure since 2008. Gross mortgage lending for the fourth quarter of 2015 was therefore an estimated £62.3 billion. This is a 1% increase on the third quarter and a 23% increase on the fourth quarter of 2014. ‘Lending ended the year stronger than it started, with our estimate of nearly £20 billion lent in December. This brings total lending to just over £220 billion for 2015 as a whole, and slightly higher than we had anticipated,’ said CML economist Mohammad Jamei. ‘The low inflation environment, along with real wage growth, an improving labour market and competitive mortgage deals have all helped to underpin demand. Having said this, the upside potential looks limited over the near term, as the supply of existing and new properties on the market remains weak, and affordability pressures weigh on activity,’ he pointed out. ‘There is an added element of uncertainty as we wait to see the impact of tax changes on the buy to let sector,’ he added. John Eastgate, sales and marketing director of OneSavings Bank, believes that the stamp duty tax changes on second properties from April are expected to increase mortgage lending activity ahead of their rollout. ‘However we don’t see this as a long term trend. The end of the year is a difficult time to conclude a great deal. Regulatory changes are expected to cause a short term spike in demand from investors, which will be reflected in first quarter figures, while overall conditions are supportive of sustainable growth in gross mortgage lending,’ he said. ‘Investor demand may balance out after the April rush, but the Help to Buy ISA will help underpin long term first time buyer demand, and the diminishing prospect of an interest rate rise will help keep a lid on monthly mortgage payments. As UK employment hits a record high, all this bodes well for borrowers’ finances and the health of the market,’ he added. The indusry should not be concerned about that dip in December, acdoring to Rishi Passi, chief executive officer of Oblix Capital. 'In the longer term, low inflation and reasonable wage growth look set to improve affordability for first time buyers and those on the bottom rungs of the ladder,' he said. 'Help to Buy will also go some way to fill the void left by any buy to let landlords downsizing their portfolios, so developers with one eye on the future should be preparing future stock to meet this shifting demand,' he added. Taylor Scott International
Taylor Scott International, Taylor Scott
