Taylor Scott International News
House prices in key cities in the UK increased by 3.8% in the three months to April 2016 and were up 10.4% year on year, according to the latest index. But there is considerable variation with Cambridge leading the annual growth with prices up 15.8% whereas in Aberdeen prices fell by 6.1% year on year, the data from the Hometrack cities index shows. The report says that this time last year growth was slowing in the run up to the UK’s general election and looking ahead growth could slow again in the run up to June’s referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union. It also points out that a surge in sales ahead of the new 3% stamp duty surcharge for additional homes resulted in most cities registering a spike in the monthly rate of house price growth in March with slower growth recorded in April. Aberdeen remains the city bucking the national trend with prices falling by 6.1% in the last year where the lower oil price continues to impact the economy and demand for housing. Across the remaining cities, the annual growth rate is higher than 12 months ago in 15 out of the 20 cities covered by the index, led by Cambridge with growth of 15.8%, then London up 14.4% and Bristol up 13.8%. Portsmouth and Southampton both saw prices rise by 9% year on year while in Bournemouth prices were up 8.6%, in Birmingham 8.3%, in Manchester 7.8%, in Leicester 7.4%, in Oxford 7.1%, Leeds 6.7%, in Cardiff 6.3%, in Nottingham 5.9%, in Liverpool 5.5%, in Sheffield 4.7%, in Belfast 4.1%, in Edinburgh 4%, in Glasgow 3.5%, and in Newcastle 2.5%. Aberdeen was the only city to see prices fall with a decline of 6.1%. The report says that the implication of the referendum result for businesses operating in housing is the key unknown. ‘The economic impact of Brexit and consequences for interest rates, investment and incomes has direct implications for housing. The consensus appears to be a short economic shock accompanied by a period of uncertainty for consumers and business,’ it explains. It has an analysis of city level house price growth and transactions over the last 20 years which shows that external shocks tend to have a greater impact on market volumes than house prices, especially where there is no accompanying economic downturn. From 1996 to 2007 house prices posted consistent positive year on year growth but this was not the case for sales volumes which were influenced by a mix of external shocks to sentiment and changing domestic factors such as short periods of rising interest rates. In the decade before 2007, sales volumes fell on four occasions in London by as much as 15% highlighting how London is more prone to the impact of external factors from the crisis in emerging economies and collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund in 1998 to the bursting of the dot… Taylor Scott International
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