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House price growth confidence hit new high in UK after general election
Confidence in the outlook for house price growth in the UK hit its highest level in four years following the general election in May, but dropped back last month. The dip in confidence in June comes despite continued rise in real wage growth, together with record low numbers of homes available for sale pushing average house prices over £200,000 for the first time ever, according to the Housing Market Confidence Tracker report from the Halifax. House Price Optimism (HPO) hit +68 in May 2015, and although it slipped back slightly in June to +64 it remains substantially higher than at the beginning of the year when it was +52 in the January survey. Nevertheless, while the May high was short lived, the percentage of Britons predicting an increase in the average property price of more than 5% over the next 12 months has still risen from 34% to 38% in the last quarter, comparing the March and June 2015 measures, respectively. This increased optimism also corresponds with a fall in the net figure for buying sentiment from +35 in February 2015 to +25 in June 2015. Some 56% said in June they think it will be a good time to buy property over the next 12 months, compared to 61% who said this in February 2015. At the same time there’s been an increase in the net figure for selling sentiment from +27 in February 2015 to +32 in June 2015. With the Governor of the Bank of England saying improving economic figures means an interest rate rise has moved closer, 48% expect mortgage interest rates to be higher in 12 months’ time compared to 45% in the first quarter of the year. Londoners are less likely than those in any other region to say it is a good time to buy at 38% compared with 56% of Britons overall, making it the only region where the proportion who think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy exceeds the proportion who think it will be a good time. Those in the South East are more confident than in any other region that house prices will be higher in 12 months’ time at 90% compared to 69% of Britons overall, with those in the North East and the West Midlands the least likely to say this, both at 59%. ‘Economic growth, together with increasing real earnings growth and historic low mortgage rates are all supporting the continued rise in house price optimism. It’s not been a smooth increase though as while there was a noticeable spike in optimism straight after the General Election result, this has now fallen off slightly,’ said Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax. ‘A key factor in maintaining optimism over house price growth has been the fact that the stock of homes available for sale is currently at record low levels. If this growth is to be sustainable then we need to… Continue reading
Home approvals strengthen in Australia but new home sales fall
New home approvals in Australia strengthened during May and remain at high levels, up 2.4% compared to the previous month, the latest data shows. Multi-unit approvals soared 15.1% but detached house approvals fell by 8.5% with a total of 218,442 approvals recorded in the year to May, a new record for approvals over any 12 month period since records began in 1983. ‘While it is positive to see improved levels of approvals, the distribution of growth was uneven with multi units increasing significantly during the month and detached house approvals falling back,’ said Shane Garrett, the Housing Industry Association’s senior economist. He pointed out that during 2014, new home building reached an all-time high and the latest figures suggest a solid pipeline of new home building during the second half of 2015. ‘However, the recent strengthening of price pressures in several markets indicates that the supply of new homes will need to stay at elevated levels in order to fully address demand,’ he warned. ‘This onus is very much on policymakers here. They must rectify the bottlenecks in the planning system, redress the excessive fees and charges on new residential developments and ensure that the pipeline of residential land will meet the ongoing community demand for new homes,’ he added. A breakdown of the figures shows that approvals saw the strongest increase in Victoria with growth of 11%, followed by New South Wales at 8.8%, Queensland at 3.6%, and Western Australia at 0.2%. Approvals fell significantly in Tasmania with a fall of 32.6% and were down 9.9% in South Australia. In trend terms approvals increased in the Northern Territory by 9.7% and in the ACT by 6% during May. Meanwhile, the HIA New Home Sales Report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, recorded the first decline for 2015 in May with total seasonally adjusted new home sales falling by 2.3%. The decline was driven by a 5.1% dip in detached house sales, and this reflected weaker monthly demand in four out of the five states surveyed, according to HIA chief economist Harley Dale. ‘This is a softer result at face value, but delving beneath the surface reveals an aggregate profile of healthy new home building conditions in 2015. The mature stage of the new home building cycle primarily reflects further momentum in the multi-unit sector, together with persistence of healthy conditions in New South Wales and Victoria,’ he pointed out. The data shows that new sales of multi-units increased by 7.6% to yet a new record level, with sales volumes up by 26.7% over the three months to May. Meanwhile strength in detached houses sales is evident in New South Wales and Victoria, with growth in the May 2015 quarter of 5.2% and 6.2% respectively. ‘Leading indicators such as new home sales and ABS building approvals will provide vital clues in coming months of the sustainability and composition of the upcycle in new home building in 2015/2016,’ said Dale. A breakdown of the… Continue reading
UK student property investment growing, latest figures show
Investment into the UK’s student housing market hit £3.98 billion in the first half of 2015, well ahead of the £2.35 billion for the whole of 2014, the latest data shows. Within that total, London saw a record £1.98 billion of transactions across the first half of the year, according to research from commercial property and real estate services advisor CBRE. The firm said that these numbers come as many investors begin to see the student accommodation market as a higher yielding way of gaining exposure to London’s PRS, with yields at an attractive margin above conventional residential stock. It adds that the record inflows seen in London have caused the fastest change in student housing yields in the whole of the UK, with yields now at 4.75% on a par with the previous peak in 2007. Student housing supply remains constrained across the UK, as a growing number of students chase a severely limited stock of purpose built accommodation in most university towns, according to Jo Winchester, head of student housing advisory at CBRE. ‘So long as demand outstrips supply, upward pressure on both rents and capital values will continue to make the market an attractive proposition for investors, and we don't expect the market to come off the boil for some time,’ explained Winchester. She added that some investors see student housing as a more cost effective way of gaining access to the PRS, both in terms of higher yields and lower capital values per square foot. ‘Although there are differences between residential and student accommodation operational models, some larger student housing operators and investors in the sector are beginning to explore build to let development and investing in the PRS. As this happens, it is possible that the operational models could become more closely aligned,’ she concluded. Continue reading
