Greece
Portuguese residential property market recovery ongoing
The residential real estate market in Portugal is seeing an ongoing steady recovery in prices, supported by rising demand and increasingly strong growth in sales activity, according to the latest index. While the lettings market has seen rents stable for a fourth month in succession following years of persistent decline, the index survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Confidencial Imobiliário shows. The data also shows that new buyer interest continued to rise at a firm pace across all regional markets, with growth particularly pronounced in Porto during June. But the market is still open to the weakness of the euro zone, particularly Greece. At the same time, newly agreed sales increased at the sharpest monthly pace since the survey was launched back in 2010, and have now risen continuously for around a year and a half. Going forward, sales expectations are pointing to further robust growth in the near term, even if the net balance eased slightly from the record high set in May. Given the sustained improvement in both enquiries and sales, prices continued to recover for a sixth month in succession, the index report explains. It also points out that the pace of house price growth accelerated a notch, driven primarily by the strong gains posted in Lisbon and looking ahead, near term price expectations continue to point to a stronger pick-up on the horizon. Over the next 12 months, respondents are now anticipating prices will rise by 2.7% at the national level. Again, the strongest recovery is anticipated to come in Lisbon and the Algarve at around 3%, while projections are for 2% growth in Porto. The national confidence indicator, an amalgamation of near term price and sales expectations, now stands at +36 equalling the third highest reading on record, despite easing compared to May’s exceptionally strong result. In the lettings market, solid growth in demand continues to be met with a decline in the number of new listings by landlords. As a result, rents remained more or less unchanged for a fourth consecutive month, while expectations suggest a further period of stability lies ahead. ‘It is important to see the Portuguese market’s resilience in the face of the uncertainty caused by the Greek crisis,’ said Ricardo Guimarães, Director of Ci. ‘Risks were highlighted by the agents but, nevertheless, activity indicators remained clearly positive, regarding both sales and prices. This was a critical test for the market, reinforcing its potential,’ he added. RICS chief economist, Simon Rubinsohn, believes that the recovery in sales market activity appears to be gathering momentum, driven by improving economic fundamentals and rising confidence. ‘However, significant risks remain within the euro area which could damage sentiment if a resolution is not found,’ he warned. Continue reading
House price growth confidence hit new high in UK after general election
Confidence in the outlook for house price growth in the UK hit its highest level in four years following the general election in May, but dropped back last month. The dip in confidence in June comes despite continued rise in real wage growth, together with record low numbers of homes available for sale pushing average house prices over £200,000 for the first time ever, according to the Housing Market Confidence Tracker report from the Halifax. House Price Optimism (HPO) hit +68 in May 2015, and although it slipped back slightly in June to +64 it remains substantially higher than at the beginning of the year when it was +52 in the January survey. Nevertheless, while the May high was short lived, the percentage of Britons predicting an increase in the average property price of more than 5% over the next 12 months has still risen from 34% to 38% in the last quarter, comparing the March and June 2015 measures, respectively. This increased optimism also corresponds with a fall in the net figure for buying sentiment from +35 in February 2015 to +25 in June 2015. Some 56% said in June they think it will be a good time to buy property over the next 12 months, compared to 61% who said this in February 2015. At the same time there’s been an increase in the net figure for selling sentiment from +27 in February 2015 to +32 in June 2015. With the Governor of the Bank of England saying improving economic figures means an interest rate rise has moved closer, 48% expect mortgage interest rates to be higher in 12 months’ time compared to 45% in the first quarter of the year. Londoners are less likely than those in any other region to say it is a good time to buy at 38% compared with 56% of Britons overall, making it the only region where the proportion who think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy exceeds the proportion who think it will be a good time. Those in the South East are more confident than in any other region that house prices will be higher in 12 months’ time at 90% compared to 69% of Britons overall, with those in the North East and the West Midlands the least likely to say this, both at 59%. ‘Economic growth, together with increasing real earnings growth and historic low mortgage rates are all supporting the continued rise in house price optimism. It’s not been a smooth increase though as while there was a noticeable spike in optimism straight after the General Election result, this has now fallen off slightly,’ said Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax. ‘A key factor in maintaining optimism over house price growth has been the fact that the stock of homes available for sale is currently at record low levels. If this growth is to be sustainable then we need to… Continue reading
US sees fall in overseas buyers due to stronger dollar, analysis suggests
Fewer overseas buyers are purchasing property in the United States with currency exchange playing its part in the drop off, a new analysis report suggests. In general home sales during the first four months of 2015 have been the best in eight years with year on year growth of 9% helped by a drop in fixed mortgage rates of almost 0.5%. But the National Association of Realtors reports that the number of international buyers dropped to 2% during the first four months of 2015 from 2.5% a year earlier, a 19% decline. About three fourths of real estate agents who work with international clients report that changes in foreign exchange rates have a moderate to very significant effect on foreign buying. Indeed, the US dollar has strengthened against currencies used by many foreigners who buy homes in the country. For example, from the beginning of 2014 o April 2015, the US dollar appreciated 10% relative to the UK pound, 13% relative to the Canadian dollar and 26% relative to the euro. Notable exceptions to these large swings in foreign exchange values were the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar, which have closely tracked the value of the US dollar. A new analysis report from real estate firm CoreLogic points out that a stronger US dollar makes property more expensive for foreign buyers whose currencies have weakened. Consequently, purchases by foreign buyers have dropped, especially for those whose currency was most affected by the foreign exchange swing. Between the first four months of 2014 and the same four months of 2015, the number of homes sold to foreign buyers drastically declined. Foreign purchases were down between one quarter to one third during this period for buyers whose currencies depreciated significantly relative to the US dollar, even though domestic purchases rose. ‘In addition to the shock caused by the stronger US dollar, the markets where foreigners tend to buy have had strong home price appreciation in the last few years. For example, many Canadians, Europeans and South Americans prefer to buy along the Southeast coast of the US for the beaches, cultural amenities, warm winter temperatures and accessibility,’ the report says. Canadians made roughly two thirds of their US home purchases during the first four months of both 2014 and 2015 in Florida. Of these purchases in 2015, nearly a half were located in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach area where home prices rose about 8% from April 2014 to April 2015. ‘Couple that with the effect of a stronger US currency, and the average Canadian considering a home purchase in south Florida saw a jump in purchase cost of 20% to 25% in the past year,’ it explains. The report suggests that foreign buying could continue to decline, level off or increase in 2016 depending on the value of the US dollar relative to most foreign currencies, but the uncertainties surrounding how the Eurozone will resolve the debt crisis in Greece has made it… Continue reading
