Greece
Global property prices up 4.7% year on year led by Hong Kong, latest data shows
Global house prices have increased by a median of 4.7% year on year led by Hong Kong, Turkey, Ireland, Sweden and Australia, a new international report shows. Overall prices have increased in 21 of the 26 countries tracked by the Economist House Price Index but growth does vary from nation to nation. The growth is topped by Hong Kong with annual price growth of 20.8%, followed by Turkey with a rise of 18,8%, Ireland up 13.4%, Sweden up 10.3% and Australia up 7.5%. At the bottom end of the index the country with the biggest annual drop in property prices is Greece with a fall of 5.9%, Singapore down 3.7%, Italy down 3.3%, China down 2.4% and France down 2.3%. All other countries has seen annual price growth according to the index which measures national affordability by comparing prices to the long run average of their relationship with rents and income. In Hong Kong prices have now doubled in five years despite seven separate round of cooling measures being introduced but with little effect. The latest, in March this year, reduced the average loan to value ratio for new mortgages from 64% to just 52%. But the index report suggests that in practice it is China’s recent stock market crash is likely to be a bigger dampener on demand as mainland investors put off new purchases. Meanwhile, China’s own housing market, it is one of only five in the index where prices are falling, but the report points out that prices are falling at a slower rate than before. The government has been trying to boost the market over the past 10 months, cutting interest rates by 1.4% and relaxing rules on down payments. Prices are now rising on a monthly basis in many cities including Beijing and Shanghai. The report points out that in the United States annual growth of 4.7% shows the real estate market is well into recovery. Some cities are seeing strong growth such as San Francisco with prices up by 10% in the year to July and up by 75% since 2009. Other countries’ housing markets are already well above fair value and the report reckons that houses are more than 30% overvalued in six markets, including Canada and Australia, with the UK the most supply constrained of this group where demand is outstripping the number of properties coming to the market. It points out that in the UK although prices have risen by 35% since their trough in January 2009, house building is failing to respond. Just 140,000 homes were completed in the year to March 2014, some 25% below the long term norm. Continue reading
Portugal’s golden visa scheme reduces real estate investment for certain locations
The Portuguese government has reduced the minimum required amount for its golden visa for those investing real estate from €500,000 to €350,000 for certain locations. But the new lower amount only applies to property located in districts designated for urban renewal and is designed to reinvigorate interest in the popular visa scheme and provide a boost to Lisbon's regeneration programme. The scheme is also getting a boost after it was suspended earlier this year as a result of a legal void created by a piece of new legislation which did not address certain aspects of the existing golden visa laws. It is one of several so called golden visa schemes that allows property investors from outside of the European Union to get a visa to live in the country by investing in real estate. Others are available in Spain and Greece. ‘It was already the most popular scheme of its kind in Europe, but the government wants to cast the net wider. Spain and Greece launched similar visa systems in 2013 and have taken some of the market share, so the authorities are using properties in regeneration areas across cities like Lisbon to inject more interest in the scheme,’ said Nicholas Leach at Athena Advisors. According to the latest figures from the Serviço de Estrangeiros e Fronteiras (SEF) 2014 was a record year for Portugal with 1,526 successful golden visa applicants in total. However this year there has been less, with only 398 successful applicants in the first six months of 2015. ‘After the initial surge of investment into the scheme, there was bound to be a let up in demand. The demand of immigration incentives peaks and troughs, and this is why the government has shaken up the terms, to try and keep the rhythm going,’ explained Leach. Between its launch in October 2012 and the end of June 2015 the Portuguese Golden Visa scheme attracted €1.47 billion of investment, of which €1.33 billion or 90% was through the purchase of real estate, accounting for 2,289 golden visas. By comparison, the Spanish equivalent of the scheme generated around €700 million, granting 530 foreign buyers with a visa between its launch in September 2013 and March 2015. According to Leach some golden visa investors have looked to the Algarve and Silver Coast north of Lisbon, but Lisbon's city centre has been the main target due to the value and potential uplift. ‘Prime properties in Lisbon are a third of the price of their London and Paris equivalents, and if you look towards central regeneration areas like Mouraria there is even more value,’ added Leach. Following the recession of 2008, much of Lisbon's city centre fell into disrepair as both businesses and people left the city. Developers have targeted these areas over the last few years, renovating historic properties and even entire districts, upgrading real estate to international standards, thus enticing golden visa investors. Most of the city centre's sought after districts fall within the boundaries… Continue reading
UK home owners should factor in interest rate rise sooner rather than later
Home owners and those thinking of buying a home should budget for an interest rate rise after the Bank of England indicated that it expects to see interest rates rise sooner rather than later. But Banks of England governor Mark Carney refused to be drawn on whether this would be before the end of the year and indicated that it will depend on factors such as the state of the euro and what happens in Greece. Interest rates in the UK have been at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009 but Carney said that the time for an increase is ‘drawing closer’. He said that the decision would be determined by looking at economic data including wage growth, productivity and import figures. He also said that the increases, when they came, would be gradual and limited to a level below past averages and line with his previous forecasts of how rates will change. Experts are divided as to when the rise might happen. Andrew Burrell, head of forecasting at JLL, believes it is unlikely that rates will rise before the first quarter of next year. ‘Despite wage rises and a recovering UK, a muted inflation forecast and global economic headwinds mean that interest rates are likely to stay the same for a couple more quarters,’ he said. Barry Naisbitt, chief economist of Santander UK, also believes that economic uncertainties still exist to prevent an immediate rate rise and John McNeill, co-manager of the Kames Absolute Return Bond Global Fund, thinks it will not happen until 2016. Property buyers need to recognise that rates will move sooner rather than later, according to Nicholas Leeming, chairman of agents Jackson-Stops & Staff. ‘The decision to maintain interest rates at the current, historically low levels comes as no surprise. However Mark Carney has been careful to flag that interest rates will edge higher in the longer term as the economy continues to grow and inflationary pressure on wages increase,’ he said. ‘Property buyers should recognise that rates will move towards more sustainable, long term levels and so budget for higher mortgage costs accordingly. Vendors should be aware that any such increases will create resistance to overly high guide prices,’ he added. Steve Bolton, founder of Platinum Property Partners, pointed out that the UK housing market as a whole has enjoyed six years of historically low interest rates. He believes that those who have invested in buy to let property over this period have also benefitted from high levels of demand for private rental accommodation across the country. ‘This has meant that the return on investment for buy to let has been strong, with many investors also seeing an impressive growth in the value of their properties. But the announcement that the base rate could start to rise soon has implications for the housing market,’ he said. ‘On the one hand, more expensive mortgage rates will possibly put a dampener on demand for borrowing, but on… Continue reading
