EU Carbon Price Rebounds

AAP 13/06/13 Europe’s carbon price has surged to its highest level in months, prompting analysts to tip a rosier outlook for Australia’s future carbon market. The spike came midweek as EU lawmakers expressed for the first time bipartisan support for efforts to fix Europe’s ailing emissions trading scheme (ETS). The EU parliament in April voted against a plan to temporarily “backload”, or remove, 900 million permits from its market in a bid to double its carbon price. The rejection saw prices plunge to record lows, and bleak projections that Australia’s carbon price would fetch less than $3 per tonne when it links with Europe’s ETS in 2015. But the price of European carbon permits hit a two-month high this week after conservative politicians indicated they’d support an amended backloading plan. The proposal is now expected to proceed to the EU parliament once again, where it will go to a final vote on July 2. Energy and carbon advisory firm RepuTex said although not set in stone, bipartisan support for this proposal was unprecedented and spelled good news for Europe’s ETS. “Prices don’t spike 70 per cent in one day unless there’s good news,” RepuTex executive director Hugh Grossman told AAP. If the vote is successful it would have immediate implications for Australia, even though it’s not anticipated the local market will mirror exactly what’s going on in Europe. RepuTex expects Australia’s carbon price to reach $5 in 2015 when the schemes link, well short of the revised down $12.10 forecast in the May budget. But by 2020 they predict it could climb to $30 per tonne, closer but still under Treasury’s estimate of $38. “Previously the government was a fair way off (with estimates), and certainly we still think it’s being optimistic,” Mr Grossman said. “But backloading really does support their claims a lot better.” However he warned against being too optimistic, as the price spike was similar to that experienced in the weeks leading up to the last failed vote. After that fell over, RepuTex predicted Australia’s carbon price – currently fixed at $23 and set to rise over the next two years – would likely fetch an average $2.70 between 2015 and 2020. Taylor Scott International