Taylor Scott International News
The income producing potential of various property asset classes is expected to be top of investors’ agendas in 2016, according to a new outlook analysis report. Average UK house prices are set to rise 5% in 2016, but the speed and timing of interest rate rises will dictate the pace and sustainability of price growth, according to the predictions from real estate advisors Savills. In the commercial market, average total returns on UK property investments are likely to slow to approximately 7.5% while in the agricultural market Savills has downgraded its forecasts for the next five years given recent market evidence and the short to medium term expectations for commodity prices and therefore farm profitability. The firm says that income and the ability to unlock the latent value of individual assets through active management are likely to be priorities, due to the current stage of the property cycle and the medium term prospect of interest rate rises, regulation and tax policy in the residential sector, and the outlook for commodity prices in the agricultural sector. In the commercial and residential markets Savills expects a shift towards investment in regional markets, given where recent capital growth has left yields. The referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) presents the greatest uncertainty for UK real estate in 2016/2017, according to Savills, as the outcome has potential implications for all three sectors. The prospects for a pre-referendum investment slowdown may well depend on how close polling companies believe the outcome will be, the report suggests. The report explains that annual house price growth stood at just 3.9% at the end of October, with annual housing transactions appearing to have peaked at 1.2 million per year so the forecast for 2016 is 5% for average UK house prices. It points out that stamp duty changes have left the top end of the London market looking both fully priced and fully taxed suggesting a further delay in the return to trend rates of house price growth. Meanwhile, the mainstream market is more dependent on what happens to the cost of borrowing. ‘Capacity exists for short term price growth if rate rises are delayed further, but rising interest rates will squeeze affordability, making house price growth dependent on earnings and the pace of economic growth,’ the report says. It adds that in some areas in London, for example Ealing, Acton, Greenwich, Lewisham and Waltham Forest, may buck this trend as they attract more affluent buyer groups. Attractive commuter towns will also continue to offer good medium term price growth, particularly where travel times are shortened by rail improvements. Also demand for private rented accommodation will continue to rise. The restriction in tax relief and additional 3% stamp duty charge for buy to let landlords may result in rising private rents and shift investor focus towards higher yielding sectors of the market, particularly key regional cities, it suggests. While Government policy… Taylor Scott International
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